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Monday, May 12, 2014

The Donbass referendum - yet another abject failure of US foreign policy

The exact results of the referendum in the Donbass are still unknown, but the following three facts are undeniable:

1) Participation was extremely high.
2) The yes vote won by a landslide.
3) The neo-Nazi junta tried hard, but failed to disrupt the vote.

We also know that the validity of this referendum will be rejected by a crushing majority of UN members.  Ditto for the regime in power who has already denounced it has a "farce".  As for the Ukie terror squads in the Donbass, they are unlikely to simply pack up and leave.  So this begs a simply question:

Is this referendum a non-event or does it matter?

I would argue that far from being a non-event, the outcome of this referendum is a huge development, a watershed really.  Why?  Because the importance of this referendum is not in its legal acceptance by any party, but in the fact that it now makes undeniable a fact which previously could not be established with certainty: the Donbass does not want to be part of Banderastan.

In a last ditch attempt to deny the undeniable the New York Times published an article on May 8th entitled "Ukrainians Favor Unity, Not Russia, Polls Find" claiming that most Ukrainians, including Russian-speakers, wanted to remain in unitary Ukraine.  Notice in the chart Pew goes as far as saying that 70% of the East Ukrainians including 58% Russian speakers want to remain in a United Ukraine.  This is a direct quote form Pew:
Among Ukrainians, 77% say Ukraine should remain united, compared with 14% who think regions should be permitted to secede if they so desire. In Ukraine’s west, which includes the central region around Kyiv (Kiev), as well as portions of the country that border Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, more than nine-in-ten (93%) think their nation should remain unified. A smaller majority (70%) in the country’s east – which includes areas along the Black Sea and the border with Russia – also prefer unity. Only in the breakaway territory of Crimea do more than half (54%) voice support for the right to secede.
Now, thanks to this referendum, this fairy tale is dead. Oh sure, the western corporate media will do the "patriotic" thing and claim that the referendum was badly organized, grossly undemocratic, that people had to vote under the threat of the barrel of a gun, etc.

Actually, that last point is true: the people of the Donbass did have to vote under the barrel of a gun except, of course, that that gun was held by the various various Ukrainian death squads.  One such unit called the "Dniper special battalion" played a particularly vicious and ugly role in the shooting of unarmed civilians both in Mariupol and in Slaviansk.  So yes, the people of the Donbass did vote in a de-facto war zone, "under the barrel of a gun", there was terror all around the polling stations, but it was Ukrainian terror.  In Slaviansk people literally voted at the sound of gunfire and even mortar fire. 

And the people of the Donbass were not deterred - they did vote and they voted in favor of sovereignty.

Elections, of course, can be faked.  But not when the participation is very hight and with figures in the 75%-100% range, not place where almost every person has a phone with a video of photo camera, not in an elections where people are more than happy to wait for hours in line to vote and not in an election were the ballot count is public and each ballot in counted three times.  The western corporate media can make all the claims it wants, but, just as with Crimea, this is a lost battle and the propaganda machine will have to throw in the towel pretty soon.  If they persist in explaining it all away with Russian agents, GRU Spetsnaz infiltrators or "terrorists" they will just further ridicule themselves.

Furthermore, this referendum puts the junta in Kiev in a terrible situation: not only did its repressive machine not succeed in taking a single city under control (not even surrounded Slaviansk!) but now everybody on the junta's side will have to admit to himself that this is a lost battle.  Even if the Ukie "special" (i.e., terror) forces were replaced by real combat units who could easily take many cities under control, this would not resolve the issue of what to do next.  Think about it:  so you finally "got", say, Slaviansk, you murdered part of the population and terrorized the other.  What now?  What do you do next?  Short of putting the equivalent of an SS battalion in each city of the Donbass there is no way of keeping everybody terrorized and accounted for.  The longer you stay the worse things will look for you.  So what is the point?

I honestly don't see a solution in the Donbass, not for the junta and not for the Empire.  The smartest thing they could do would be to cut their losses and retreat from the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, but that would immediately create two more headaches: first, other regions, including Odessa, will almost certainly follow that example and, second, the Donbass is where the money is.  That is by far the richest, most developed, part of the Ukraine.  The loss of Crimea is bad enough, but losing the Donbass is even worse.  But how do you hold on such a huge region with forces which failed to even adequately terrorize a small city like Slaviansk?

At this point a lunatic like Oleg Liashko would probably suggest that heavy artillery and airstrikes should be used to simply flatten any rebellious city.  There are two problems with that:  a) that is hardly going to make the junta in Kiev more popular and b) that would guarantee a Russian air/missile strike on Ukie artillery positions and/or the imposition of a no-fly zone.  And if the local authorities officially appeal to Russia for protection there would be a very real risk for the Right Sector thugs and the "Dniper Special Battalion" to find themselves suddenly faced some very polite and absolutely ruthless "armed men in green".  Russia could also send in just a few specialized diversionary teams like the FSB's Vympel or the SVR's Zaslon which could eliminate the local field commanders of the junta in the Donbass while making it all look like accidents.

The bottom line is this: following the referendum, Kiev has no more viable options left.  In contrast, Moscow has plenty of options, all pretty good.

First, Moscow can decide to suspend the recognition of the results of the referendum just like it had refrained from recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia until 08.08.08.  The message would be simple: "be good or else we will do an 08.08.08 on you".

Moscow could also choose to deliberately exacerbate the situation and declare that this referendum did express the will of the people and that from now on Moscow will not back any solution which would not recognize the Donbass as a sovereign state.  In this case, the Kremlin could well decide to openly send in military equipment and advisers.

Either way, we know that Psaki will continue to deny the obvious, and that Hollande and Merkel will try get the EU to impose further sanctions but that is about all they could do and, frankly, Russia couldn't care less.

Logically, the center of gravity of the Ukrainian "creeping civil war" will move to the cities of Kherson, Dniepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Zaporozhie and especially Odessa - a much larger region that the one which just voted in the referendum. 

The only relatively good news for the junta is that the three regions which have in one way or another seceded so far are also the ones in which the absolute majority of the population spoke Russian.  They are shown in dark green in the language map.  This map, by the way, is an 'official' map which is highly misleading: in reality the number of regions which speak primarily Russian in much bigger and includes Odessa, Dniepropetrovsk and even Kiev, but that is besides the point.  The point of this map is to show that even "official Kiev" knew and "sort of admitted" that Lugansk, Donetsk and Crimea were even less "Ukrainian" than any other region.

I fully expect the junta to go ahead with the planned Presidential election (even though what powers this President remains unknown since nobody knows what the future Ukrainian Constitution will be like).  In fact, by removing such regions as Lugansk, Donetsk or Crimea this will strongly alter the overall balance of Ukrainian vs Russian speakers in the country. Remember that Yanukovich was always elected with pretty thin majorities?  Now it might well be that a majority of the people of what is left of the Ukraine would at least have Ukrainian as their main language.  Still, speaking Ukrainian does not necessarily make you a Galician, a neo-Nazi or a rabid russophobe and the more "pro-Russian" regions break away from Banderastan the more the national question will be gradually replaced by the economic one.

The question now is whether the junta will continue wasting its already mostly depleted resources on fighting an unwinnable war against the Donbass or whether they will concentrate their forces in regions where something might still be salvaged.  So far, the AngoZionist Empire and its puppet-junta have literally done everything wrong: they missed every single possibility to seek a negotiated solution, they have rejected numerous offers of dialog from Moscow, they have steadfastly refused to see the reality on the ground and at every step of the way they have made things worse for everybody, including themselves.  Will the outcome of this referendum in the Donbass be enough to force them all to open their eyes to reality?  I personally doubt it very much.  I can't think of a single person in government in the West which has shown even a modicum of pragmatism: Obama and Kerry are clearly completely out of touch with reality and nobody dares to disobey their crazy orders.

Will Banderastan have to shrink to the size of the Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk regions to open their eyes to the fact that more than anything else it is their own crazy self-defeating policies which are destroying the country which for 22 years used to be the Ukraine?

I honestly don't know.

The Saker


Meezer said...

Going by their previous track record, I think that the Nazi's in Kiev will double down & will continue their onslaught on the East. Fresh from their victory in the referendum, the people in the Donbas need to get more volunteers for the self-defense forces. They will need them.

Crossvader said...

Would love nothing more than to shake hands of Donestsk and Lugansk warriors. That'd be the highest honor for me.
If anyone from that part of the world reads this blog, please know - you are admired by countless people all over this planet! You are not alone! And there is no bigger endorsement than being disparaged and "unrecognized" by a bunch of cowardly liars like merkel, hollande, cameron and the rest of the degenerates' gang.
We hope that the families of the fallen men will be well cared for.

Anonymous said...

The Kiev Kriminals will never back down until they have utterly destroyed the Ukraine, turning it into a political and economic wasteland.

Following in the footsteps of their Nazi forbears,, these psychopathic clowns, will force a gotterdammerung than accept a 'loss'. The rich ones with dual passports will bug out whilst many of the secondary leaders will end up somewhere in the forest. The vast majority of Ukrainians will live poorer than most Africans, suffocated under unpayable debt, until a leadership emerges to repudiate all foreign obligations.

The USSA satanists/puppetmasters stage-managing the Kiev Klowns, will unfortunately, get off scott free, and will work their devilishness upon some other poor, hapless country

Only the Ukrainians, with a bit of indirect help from Russia, can prevent this outcome.

family_man said...

I guess I would like further clarification on what exactly the Donbass residents voted for. Was it: (a) To remain part of Ukraine, but to have greater autonomy in its affairs; (b) To secede from Ukraine and become an independent nation, with its own currency and constitution; or (c) To secede from Ukraine and become a part of Russia? I thought they were voting for (a). Your article seems to imply they were voting for (b). If this is the case, will any other country, even Russia, recognize the sovereignty of the newly formed nation? Would this give Russia the legal justification to sell armaments to the newly formed "nation"?

Anonymous said...

Crossvader said...
Enough said!Good man.

Anonymous said...

You make a hugely important point about the change in demographics by removing Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk from Ukraine.

This is actually a pretty big positive for the right-wing Ukranian nationalist government. Now a cleaned-up, non-Nazi Ukranian nationalist can win a real election with the remaining population. It could actually be a recipe for stability and probably good for everyone.

They would still face dire budgetary crisis, made worse by the loss of 3 money-making provinces. I suppose they could try to negotiate their debt to Russia to "make up" for it. At which point they would have to go on the IMF diet. Hope it works out for them.

As for Odessa... not holding my breath for that one. Increasing distance from Russia, more mixed population.

If the dust settles from today's referendum and Donetsk and Lugansk become independent, I would consider that a huge win for general sanity and peace in the region, and would be quite happy.

Vediki said...

R.I.P. Ukraine

..The west is the best
The west is the best
Get here, and we'll do the rest

From The End by The Doors

jc said...

Any idea what Putin is going to do?

Putin to formulate his attitude to referenda in Ukraine's south-east on their results

What the RF President's decision will be "is difficult to forecast", presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said

jc said...

Any idea what Putin is going to do?

Putin to formulate his attitude to referenda in Ukraine's south-east on their results

What the RF President's decision will be "is difficult to forecast", presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said

Daniel Rich said...

@ Crossvader,

RT ran an article back in March;

"Facts only: Kosovo vs Crimea - 'Good Independence' vs 'Bad Referendum'" @

I hope indeed that the families of the fallen will be taken care of.

Did anyone notice the contradiction in terms in the headline "Pro-Russians vote for independence"

You can't make that stuff up.

Like a ff-ing bad episode of Monty Python, as seen through eyes of an overdosed crackhead.

olivegreen said...

"One such unit called the "Dniper special battalion" played a particularly vicious and ugly role in the shooting of unarmed civilians both in Mariupol and in Slaviansk."

Mariupol and Krasnoarmeysk. Slavyansk is under control of Strelkov's people. Dnieper only shows up in places that are totally undefended.

A_Chinese said...

What I can't understand is why the interim government and their Western backers(advisers) are so stupid? Everything they did is so obviously wrong even to us foreigners. They just keep shooting their own foot. From what I understand about Americans, they could be a lot smarter.

Anonymous said...

The battle for Ukraine is far over: Putin won. There is no turnback for Ukraine every day. The east is lost, its economic power too. Ukraine will be some kind of Mega Moldova.

The next battle is about Germany.

Nora said...

Saker, thank you for another great piece.

It's often claimed that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. If so, we've got some pretty good guidelines in terms of what to expect, especially since our foreign policy is being run by the same Neo-Con crew that ruined Afghanistan and Iraq and then stayed there and kept ruining them some more. So my guess is we'll keep doing what we always do, and Blackwater/Greystone/Ie/Academi/whatever will be able to hire every unhappy, unemployed Iraq vet who can no longer fit comfortably into civilian life, they'll probably bump off any Pravy Sektor thugs whose lack of discipline becomes problematic, and the Donbass will end up having to endure a rather unusual guerilla war where the true guerillas are Kiev, not the people. If it is true that that mining oligarch is now supporting the people, then at least payrolls can be made; that is an absolutely huge development.

But the main point is, we won't stop ourselves until the costs become too great. And I really think it's futile to view Obama as any kind of "decider". He's a figurehead, a willing figurehead who cares so little about what's going on that he doesn't even bother to keep himself informed. Meanwhile, the EU looks about as capable of growing a spine as the Democratic Party, but those elections are on May 25 also, so there's at least a sliver of hope there. But I'd put my money on us changing course about two minutes after Big Ag, Big Oil and the futures markets decide it's time (said two minutes would be for the Homeland Security-Military-Industrial Complex to go to Plan B (Africa maybe?) for their next set of quarterly profits.

Michael Collins said...


The United States and European Union must now advance an absuerdist doctrine. Jen Psaki, US State Department bot said, "If the referenda go forward, they will violate international law and the territorial integrity of Ukraine." (May 10) Since when is voting a violation of international law. Did Psaki say the same about the Veneto (Venice) referendum in Italy a few weeks ago? And, please God help me understand, how can voting violate any nation's, let alone Ukraine's, territorial integrity? We're through the looking glass.

The New York Times article is a pathetic joke. The good news is that commenters are shredding the article.

David said: Without US encouragement and support there would be no coup and scheduled election would go on as planned to determine the real will of the people. Then none of that would have happened and Crimea would still be a part of Ukraine.

Mark Thomason noted: "Kiev sent men with automatic weapons in armored vehicles to chase off voters, and they shot some who talked back. Yes, it was lawless. That is not an argument the guys doing the shooting get to make. "

Current NYT Times reporting rivals the WMD scare of serial distortionist Judith Miller before the Iraq invasion, The tactics and motivation remains constant; uninterrupted support of the war party exceptionalists.

james said...

Thanks for your round-up and assessment, Saker. I agree with the sentiments of the first two commenters, Meezer and Crossvader.

I think we are all agreed that parasites cannot be anything other than parasites and will continue until they either kill the host or are evicted against their will.

As I understand it, the people of Donbass have voted for autonomy and will follow this vote up with another next week regarding whether to join Russia or not.

If they do, and it seems likely to me (from the other side of the world!) this will give Putin the legality he requires to incorporate the Donbass region. He has shown repeatedly his desire to act legally and in accordance with people's free will. This will become increasingly important to people of other regions and nations as time goes by.

The timing of the Donbass incorporation may not be immediate as you say, Saker. There are many other factors involved including the overall demise of the AngloZionist project.

Grunt said...

Hey Saker, you're projecting Russia's dilemma on the Ukrainian government. Before this started, Russia practically owned Ukraine. Today you're are barely holding onto the south east. You're just distressed and confused because the new government discarded its fear of Russia and is facing you down and choosing to fight rather than lay down and be raped like the previous traitorous Yanukovich regime. They'll fight, and the more Russia tries to intimidate them, the worse it'll be for Russia. No matter how much you try to whitewash this conundrum, Russia loses because a terror war in the Donbass is a net loss for Russian interests( missile industries, motor sich, Gasprom etc). The Russian parasite used to live on Ukraine rent-free, not anymore, the price just quadrupled- and the Ukrainian state is better for it.
Your analysis is actually the reverse of its conclusion, because what you claim the Ukrainian government is doing to lose the region, Russia is doing on the macro level to lose the entire Ukraine. You might hurt the Ukrainian state, but you inversely hurt Russia the worse this gets. By the way, none of this hurts America in any meaningful way, we win however this plays out, and your Russia loses, again. And what's more, your oligarchs will keep spending their stolen wealth in Miami regardless. You can delete this too if you like, it's enough for me to know that you know I see straight through your "tough guy" act

Anonymous said...

At some point civilians are going to stop remonstrating with these thugs on camera and simply back off so the Donbass militias can give them the 1994 Grozny-style reception they deserve -- especially the 'men in black' and Dnieper group.

Anonymous said...

'Grunt' sounds like a Ukrainian troll. Not an American judging by typed his English.

Ben said...

Just to make it simple; What goes on show here is kind of like a democratic society i always believed i would live in... here in the middle of Europe. I still do believe a large set of values, but i already have lost and revised many of them. As for today i could say that i am somewhere on the far left of what is possible. I just saw this lately on a labour day (1st of Mai) celebration where the darkest in black hoodies and loudest group (colorful smoke a firecrackers pklus loud music) had the truest slogans and where closest to societey. For example not to privatise public sector systems like hospitals, water and electricty supply, education. This groups also complain about what has become a farce of democracy and they beleive it is outright silly to ask for permission for demonstrating for your rights. This is completly idiotic and silly to maintain that we live in democracies but need permission to speak out in the streets where as corruption, lobyism simply takes what it wants and has become the substitute for peoples rights to participate, debate. It has all become so wrong.... so very wrong. I believe that western societies are beginning to loose the people... it goes from doubts to critic to debate to anger to frustration

Peter Vote said...

Ukraine should split into two like Czechoslovakia, the south and the east will join Russia while the west will join EU. Everyone will be happy. I support that outcome.

Afterthought said...

The Western Oligarchs are reeling like a punch-drunk fighter as the "terrorists" were seen to be standing in long lines waiting to vote! They lost the War of Optics, while Putin did as best he could given the rabid hatred of Putin oozing from the pores of the Jews, homosexuals, and other Cultural Marxists who dominate the Western media.

While recognition is coming soon, I doubt Russia will de jure annex Donbas, that will come later when the West is preoccupied by the next shiny object.

Crimea now has a land bridge, Russian advancement along the Black Sea coast continues on to Odessa and beyond.

Since the calculus of the local population was that life would be better under Russia than Ukraine, now the onus is on Putin to deliver. I recommend tax exemption in the new territories for five years and watch the economy boom. Putin needs to get a top player in there to govern the new territories well and stamp put the typical corruption at the source.

If Putin can show the average man and woman on the street that Russia is good for business, then he will disarm the only tool the West have left, which is GDP per capita, and unite it with the cultural tools he has cultivated in the once demoralized post-Soviet society.

Wiz Oz said...

@..The west is the best
The west is the best

You certainly mean "the WURST is the best" (in a new vision of Europa). "The bearded woman" was always the great attraction of any Circus.

Crossvader said...

Saker, thanks for letting Grunt's exquisite if somewhat desperate attempt at whitewashing reality to slip through.
It's certainly a wonderful read for anyone in need of a good laugh.
I guess in a year or so we may be treated with another priceless gem along the lines "Well, Russia practically owned the Ukraine, but now we have Lviv, so Russia lost".
I have to admit - Ukrainian junta and its apologists do excel in making lemonade out of lemons.
State Department's training in "Orwell 101" shines through brightly.

Anonymous said...

Congratulations to the residents of Donetsk and Luhansk for a successful referendum.

Also, congratulations to the Russians. I am sure Russians are happy too to have an evidence that their country is admired by their neighbours.

Stephen J said...

If this is an accurate translation of the question on the referendum ballot:

"Do you support the act of state self-reliance of the Donetsk People's Republic?"

it seems to me there's considerable room for interpretation as to what a particular voter might take it to mean. A segment on RT where a reporter was asking questions of people in a crowd queued up to vote elicited many response saying there weren't voting to join Russia or to sever from Ukraine but rather to have more say and control of their own affairs locally rather than everything being managed from Kiev.

I believe the things of significance to watch for now are whether and to what degree the US enabled Kiev junta's assaults on the Eastern Oblasts ratchets up or not, whether, (and using what pretext), will the US order the cancellation of the scheduled elections for May 25, and if the events of the referendums in the East today will have a wider stimulative effect across other regions of the country as the perfidy of the junta and the crushing privation of the EU/IMF 'loans' finally begins to be felt across the breadth of the country.

вот так said...


Thanks for laying out your thoughts on the vote and the rest. Pretty much my view, as well.

Now, we wait and see how the independent Donbass decides to deal with Ukrainian assets on their territory. Both regular Ukrainian military, and the death squads. There was a rumour boy molester Liashko had been captured by the self-defense forces, but unfortunately the freak wasn't captured.

This independence movement could now get stronger in the nearby regions. Mariupol came in with the lowest turnout, 30% or less, I think. That may be an indicator of what to expect of the other nearby regions, so the this vote may be the last independence vote for a while. I think this is why Kharkov decided to hold off on their vote. A lot depends on the zionazi freakshow, and I don't just mean the Ukrainian quislings, their handlers, as well.

Probably in guessing at future freakshow moves, it would be wise to look at it from the perspective of what zionazi-nazistan think would cause Russia the most problems. Especially economic problems with their neighbours. I believe there wont be substantial change in zionazi "great game" strategy to undermine Russia.

Brian_J said...

Of course everyone will compare the high referendum numbers to those for e.g. Mubarak or Saddam. The numbers don't look so unreasonable if one knows how dearly the people all over Ukraine love the dream of independence. Here is a map of returns by Oblast in the 1991 referendum on independence.

Unfortunately Ukraine has had a bad time establishing a stable post-Soviet political culture. Perhaps these first steps in Donbass will spread westward. If Kiev snubs a request for dialog and instead attempts another anti-terrorist action they risk altogether losing the confidence of the whole country.

Pavel Gubarov's training is in History at DonNU. This should be interesting.

It will also be interesting to see what role Rinat Akhmetov will have in the new landscape.

This from Reuters

The Metinvest company partially owned by Rinat Akhmetov, one of Ukraine's wealthiest businessmen with interests in the coal and steel industry in the east, said it was deploying a volunteer militia in Mariupol with workers from steel plants.

Last week Ukrainian forces battled rebels for control of the city and between seven and 20 people were killed before the Kiev forces withdrew, but disorders have continued.

Metinvest urged Kiev to refrain from sending troops on forays into the city if his militia maintained order.

"This militia will begin patrolling the streets of the city to protect peaceful civilians from marauders and criminals," the company said, adding opportunities for negotiation remained.

and this:


Theodore Svedberg said...

I happen to hope that Russia will win this conflict with the US over Ukraine. Severing the Donbas from Ukraine will not be a victory for Russia. It will leave a truncated state that will join NATO. That has to be bad for Russia and would be a strategic defeat. I do not think that is something they will accept.

If Russian is forced to intervene in Ukraine they will not stop with the Donbas. I suspect they will take over all of the regions north and east of the Dniepre River as well as the oblasts of Kherson, Odessa and Mykolaiv. After all, if Russian is forced to intervene, the bad press would not be worse if they picked off 8 oblasts rather then just the two Donbas ones.

Whatever does happen I appreciate Saker's optimistic tone. I do hope it works out that way.

Daniel Rich said...

@ Grunt,

I do understand disagreement and I actively encourage it, but I do not understand the anger and rage that oozes out of contribution.

What happened?

You said 'You [Saker] can delete this too...' Does that imply it happened before?

Anonymous said...

Tough guy act eh

We'll see how well IMF-controlled Ukraine does in the Austerity Union.

The conclusion might be that western corporatism isn't a real answer to anything. Quite the contrary, it's last winter's snow.

Best wishes

Anonymous in Finland

sevoblast said...

What no one seems to have noticed was a statement by Donbas that they will no longer stay on the defensive as they have from the beginning. The Local Defense Units have tried very hard not to hurt Ukrainian Army units that did not try to hurt them, witness the continuous raids on the checkpoints around Slavyansk that were mostly, not all but mostly, a lot of noise and then the Ukraine Army left and the boys went back to the checkpoints.

I think you will also see more than one Ukraine Army unit change flags. We have a goodly number of friends up there and in Odessa and I don't think the future for right sector and svoboda is too bright at this moment from what they are saying.

I do not think Russia will come in overtly any time soon. I think Mr. Putin will let Donbass et al earn their freedom themselves, the hard way. I have no doubts that there is a goodly amount of covert things going on just as I know more than a few rather peeved Berkut boys are on the hunt, so to speak.

In the end I think Donbas will stand on their own two legs and get the job done. The fly in that ointment is if the idiots in Kiev decide to pull a Grad attack on Slavyansk or Donetsk. If that happens, all bets are off and Mother will act as she deems fit.

Oscar said...

Reply to Grunt. My impression is that Russia has practically never owned Ukraine as you claim, dont seem so interested. Ukraine was lost since the advent of the colorful revolutions (remember the orange?) sponsored by you know whom. The ones whot took over then were so corrupt as the previous (Timoshenko, etc) thats where the Ukrainian people lost hope. Russia doesnt seem to want to take over a corrupt and broken land this will be something for th US/Neocons.

Another Norwegian said...

"What I can't understand is why the interim government and their Western backers(advisers) are so stupid? Everything they did is so obviously wrong even to us foreigners. They just keep shooting their own foot. From what I understand about Americans, they could be a lot smarter. "

For 99% of the politicians, it is about keeping power in their home countries, so if they manage to get their competitors to fuck up, it is just great.

For the UK, it is about Scotland, for France it's Brittany, Alsace and Province. Italy don't want Veneto gone, while Spain has separatists in Catalonia and Basque country.

If the EU is to accept Ukraine splitting along ethnic lines, they need some form of civil war, so they can say that they tried keeping the Ukraine together, but that the ethnic hatred was just to ingrained on both sides to achieve it.

Why the USA is meddling, is for me about getting the Eastern Europeans scared of Russia and loyal towards NATO, so that they will send troops to Africa, to counter the Chinese influence. When Russia ultimately turns towards the west once more, China will already be addicted to Russian energy.

I think the Africa mission is stupid, as I think it is better to let the Chinese have it, and then let them become the hated imperialists, that exploit both the home population and the colonials, in order to serve the need of Empire. For all I care, they can get reserve currency status as well, as nothing good have ever come from thinking you can get something for free.

When the US Empire finally falls, it will be hard on Americans for a while, but I am sure it will be of great benefit for the average American, just like the Spanish, Dutch and English citizens were better off after their empires collapsed.

The biggest losers is going to be the "chosen ones", as they will become the ones that will get all the blame, as everybody else who is guilty, will be the ones that shouts the loudest, in order to absolve themselves.

Theodore Svedberg said...

I happen to hope that Russia will win this conflict with the US over Ukraine. Severing the Donbas from Ukraine will not be a victory for Russia. It will leave a truncated state that will join NATO. That has to be bad for Russia and would be a strategic defeat. I do not think that is something they will accept.

If Russian is forced to intervene in Ukraine they will not stop with the Donbas. I suspect they will take over all of the regions north and east of the Dniepre River as well as the oblasts of Kherson, Odessa and Mykolaiv. After all, if Russian is forced to intervene, the bad press would not be worse if they picked off 8 oblasts rather then just the two Donbas ones.

Whatever does happen I appreciate Saker's optimistic tone. I do hope it works out that way.

Anonymous said...

Did you se the following?:

So the German secret service is leaking information and undermining the western front.

Kind Regards, Ben

dusty said...

Grunt, I think that there's a slight misunderstanding going on here.

Russia did not 'practically own' Ukraine. There were, and are, close social, economic and political ties between the two countries. The nature of those ties is, obviously, under review right now.

As the result of the Yanukovych government coming to a rather belated understanding that EU association was a path that was simply not supportable for the Ukrainian economy Ukraine withdrew from that association at which point all hell broke loose.

Oddly enough, the current junta has, after examining the costings of the EU association, come to exactly the same conclusion as the legitimate government and as a result has not signed the important part of the association agreement.

At the same time, the current junta has made it clear that they have no intention of seeking to join NATO, although they have been happy to call upon NATO to support them in their difficult days.

So, what we have is the current government which, in economic and military terms, has the same interests and goals as the legitimate government had.

The difference is that the current incumbents have the weight of their 'mentors' in the west on their backs - in addition to their obligations to Ukraine based interests from their oligarch keepers. So, the current lot have two sets of masters, not just one.

Is Russia under threat?
Yes, of course, that was the game plan, the very purpose of this program. Had Yanukovych stuck to the script assigned to him then things might have played out differently but the external goals were unchanged.

However, as I see it, Russia's downside is not as great as that for the US. You see, until recently, the US was seen as the big boy on the block, the one to whom we all had to give our lunch money or risk losing our sneakers.

Over recent years the farrago that is Afghanistan and the eye blacking of Iraq have suggested that we should not be giving our lunch money to the big boy on the block, that our sneakers were not so much at risk as we thought.

Syria taught us that the big boy had a challenger. Not so big, not so brash, but maybe a tad smarter.

Ukraine is, no matter the perceived cost to Russia as envisioned by the US, a clear demonstration that the new kid will, at the least, challenge the previous bully for our lunch money and at the best, might not demand it at all. We don't yet know the answer to that point but we do know that we no longer have to give in to the demands of the US and that is very, very important.

The kids in the schoolyard just gained in confidence!

Anonymous said...

For the aptly named grunt I would like to congratulate him for his example of how assessment is often a function of the interaction of purpose and perception - in his case apparently restricted to linear logic.

Anonymous said...

The opponents are self-obessed in myriad manifestations and there in lies their Achilles heels. Why should the people of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions care whether the "Americans" or the "Poles" or any possible opponents recognise the referenda? The points throughout and in the future was/will be whether they recognise their own wishes and act on them.

Anonymous said...

You're right about America - it won't hurt US at all, at least in short term, any trouble created here only pushes rest of Europe firmer to US orbit, which might as well be the original intent after all, "Containment of Russia" and making it "regional power" is well known US policy, while keeping everybody else on US's side.
In long term, let me give an example: UK media noted long ago, in aftermath of Iraq invasion, that regardless the much celebrated "special relationship" between US and UK, when the things get serious, both countries put their national interest first.
The rift with Russia will most likely hurt EU, and since US does not care about that at all (thanks, Ms. Nuland), because e.g. as one of consequences it creates new market for US shale gas, then question arises if (or when) someone in EU finally says this is not in our national interest and
will declare US a "parasite living rent-free on EU". We can reprise this conversation then.

Wrt. Russia loosing Ukraine, I think this is mostly a MSM headline created to promote impression of West actually doing something to punish Russia.
During the Yeltzin era Russia did not "own" anybody for sure, and since Orange revolution Ukraine is openly anti-Russian, including Yanukovich's, so question is: what exactly is Russia loosing here? Just the fact that after 23 ears the Ukie constitution does not include Russian language
as official language says it all.
However since 60% of Ukraine export goes to Russia, the Russia has indeed a huge economical influence on what happens to Ukie economy, and this is not going to change, not any time soon.
Believe me, EU is not going to increase consumption of "Made in Ukraine" products, this brand has no trust in Europe, only mb. if they'd like to compete on price with likes of Vietnam, but this will not fix the Ukie economy, IMHO. And cheap agricultural produce imports to EU are non-starter, EU will not allow any damage to its agriculture sector.
Thus Ukie economical dependence on Russia will not change, and let's hope that Russians will show mercy to the people of Ukraine, and will not tighten the immigration rules on millions of Ukrainians working in Russia, or shut down the food imports (you can always find a Salmonella, or antibiotics over the limit, or forbidden food colour additive)

Anonymous said...

@ Grunt.
Like a typical pig, you may grunt and squeal all you like, but your pathetic attempt to grasp at exceptionalist straws gets you nowhere.
The US wins? Wins what exactly? The poor US taxpayers (that includes me), who have NO say in this matter, will now have to fork over billions of dollars to prop up for who knows how long an illegal, brutal,and incompetent regime, run by greedy fools and prostitutes.
Meanwhile those you call the winners, ostensibly the Ukranian people, will face austerity, lawlessness and oppression, rape by the IMF, destruction of their agricultural sector by GMO, the ruin of their culture and religion by a media controlled by foreign interests which will undoubtedly promote the LGBT agenda, with its attendant horrors and freaks.
By calling yourself a 'grunt' you make evident the fact you have undergone US military brainwashing and now worship your disgusting masters in Washington DC.
How pathetic fellow Americans fall to such depths.

Anonymous said...

Hi Saker,

now that the referendum is done, the next logical step will be a declaration of independence. At that point, the priorities for any provisional authority would be:
- security
- elections

The first point implies that the gates of Hell would truly open for Ukraine. If Kiev does not accept the independence of the East, there will be a "warred" civil-war, very different from what is happening now.

Anonymous said...

@A_Chinese said... -- "What I can't understand is why the interim government and their Western backers(advisers) are so stupid?".

There haven't been any rational logical policy circuits working in DC since GWBush introduced 'faith-based' policy there during the last decade.

They think 'might is right'; 'G-d is on their side'; and confuse meekness with weakness.

Kiev coup regime are just IMF finger puppets for the DC finger puppets for Big Business fingers (Adam Smith's Invisible Hands) who are most likely playing all sides to (a) get longer-term energy concessions in Russia ... by hook, or by crook; and (b) get rid of Obama's Democrats in the next elections.

The question in my mind is: why the Chinese don't see this?

Every system is blind-sided one way or another, and perhaps Beijing just cannot imagine a top-down hierarchy (with the largest military in the world) run by a massive collection of vacant policy space!

The American myth is about small government (& even then they don't trust them) -- so, behold one of three (alleged) Chinese curses is fulfilled: "May you find what you’re looking for."

Basically, they have found it: lights on (in the House) but no one is home. Too busy out 'Droning' woman and kids in some Arabian/African backwater (rhymes with Blackwater) for sport.

Grim Deadman said...


Your poor knowledge of economics and the region in question predetermines the absurd conclusions at which you have arrived.

Anonymous said...

Moscow've said these referendums were will of people and Russia is respecting them. Putin is very good player and his previous talk was only to outmaneuver Russia enemies. This was clear from the beginning.

Anonymous said...

Grunt said
"By the way, none of this hurts America in any meaningful way"

Sure, it does not, and it does not concern US in any way. But then why are you so angry and emotional about this?

Anonymous said...

Hey Grunt, did you eat too many Maidan cookies?, such that you only have a few crumbs rattling around up there for brains...go and shill somewhere else. (Dave Hodges site would be a good place to start) another fat delusional(America is never wrong)shill. Btw two words for you: Nuland Phone-call.

laurent said...

all the rationale of kiev's leader is about keeping power. they're a minority who stole power through a coup. the contry is bankrupt and they know they can't satisfy the electorate who opposed yanukovich on euro maidan. on top of that they need to keep in check their own militias because the alliance in power is fragile.
a state of war against eastern ukraine, however crazy and doomed to fail, holds the gang together, keeps the population behind.
so there is no way it can stop unless they have a power structure that is settled and strong.
the real battle is behind the lines.

Anonymous said...

1) I have a strong suspicion that hunta did want to get rid of the eastern territories, otherwise why reject the absolutely innocent request for federalization. They are so hell bent towards the “western values”. So why refuse the status that most of the highest developed countries in the world (including US, Germany and Canada) enjoy?

2) I wonder if the “Kosovo rule” applies here. The West recognized Kosovo independence because of the bloodshed. Is the blood of citizens of Eastern Ukraine is red enough for EU to recognize the desire to be independent from their murderers?


Anonymous said...

US NATO torment the Ukraine
They drive the story
Trip them up like Somalia
Capture the American cowboys and film them
in their underwear like Saddam Hussein...with a
sign saying Texas...NY...around their neck

No need to torture them....simply present them
and let the shock and humiliation do its public leverage

Bashar Assad missed his chance at the beginning of the war
when NATO spec forces were captured...and discretely returned

You tube can go viral with Mercs gone wild vid with dubbed in

Anonymous said...

Everyone should take Ukrainian news, be it from or other sources, with a proper douse of doubts.


11.05.2014 Slovyansk Battle of Andreevka
(11.05.2014 Славянск Бой под Андреевкой)

Are the shooting "soldiers" kids with AKs or scared to death "boytsy" of NatGuard or Right Sector shooting at every ghost they saw and shooting into the sky mainly!

What proves tracer bullets.

No wonder Igor Strelkov jokes about their opponents' courage in his reports one can find on The Russian Spring website (

Anonymous said...

I would like to look the present crisis in Ukraine from illiterate political / economic analyst point of view:
1. US Army never attacks enemies, friends only, so EU is their target not Russia or Ukraine.
2. During the cold war time US has convince all Western European countries to deposit gold reserves in US.
3. All requests, such as German one for the return of the gold has fallen on deaf ears.
4. China and Russia are buying almost all available gold on the market and stacking it. Why?
5. Dollar and present global financial system (read dollar printing system) is the main obstacle for economic prosperity globally.
6. China and Russia will abandon dollar and introduce monetary cover in gold at least as temporary measure.
7. UKr crisis is hurting EU much more than Russia. Russia would be really hurt economically if takes heavily indebted Ukraine, for sure, so they want to provoke invasion at any cost.
8. US does not want European countries in a state where they could enforce return of the gold. They want to blackmail them into NATO and turn toward Russia and China in the next conflict.

That's my vision of the present and actual intentions of the psychotic cleptocracy in US.

Kind regards to all bloggers and thanks for interesting views and reading.


Robert Snefjella said...

What now, former Ukraine?

Leaving aside for a moment what’s likely to happen, let’s conjure up a Bright Idea.

What to produce?

Well, there’s a crowded problematic market but not much need for more stuff - bracelets or varoom cars or contour flaunting spandex pants or soil-crushing people-shredding tanks.

But there’s a growing market and a permanent need for nourishing food.

Judging by the obesity index, which has triumphed over the cadaver index, there’s lots of food around, but much of it’s not fit to eat. What has been growing greatly in much of the planet over the last decades is the demand for organic food.

So what we’re ideally looking for here is a place with rich soil and people with farming experience and time on their hand, and who could use a good steady income. Hmmm.

Instead of renting Ukrainian black earth to the Chinese, what about selling good clean wholesome organic food to the world?

Incidentally, Ukraine, your CIA infiltrated spooky buddy the USA has become a cauldron of vicious low IQ depressed cancer ridden diabetics with easily whipped to war fever hysteria syndrome. And they are nourished by genetically modified food and aspartame and super-sized processed garbage food. Don’t go there.

Rather, check out those recalcitrant Russian bastards. They’re turning their backs on the western debt-slave banking system, and on genetically modified so-called food.

Anonymous said...

Just a thought...

The more films with "the black thugs" or other Kiev regime's formations I see the more I come around it's high time to get rid of one of the main "key expressions" of "our brothers".

All those from Ukraine who hates Russians and Ukrainians wanting to live without Kiev's ultra-nationalists government are no longer Russian brothers. Let them be - they are Ukrainians - but with full consequences of being citizens of other nation, here hostile to anyone and anything of Russian.

If they shoot Russians Russia has all the rights to response with force. It's time to stop to hide behind the stupid "we will not be killing our brothers".

They are not brothers, not any more.

james said...

I think the BS Pew research data was fabricated and published so as to substitute for the falsified 'exit polls' that have been used in 'color revolutions' in the recent past to justify subsequent protests.

In this case the 'protests' will exist solely in the NYT and similar propaganda rags. They will insist 'till the cows come home' that the election results were rigged.

james said...

They will insist that the election results were rigged and point to the Pew Poll as proof!

Anonymous said...

Not directly related to Ukraine yet the Boko Haram thing in Nigeria is gaining traction in the media. I have trouble thinking such a humanitarian mobilization by the US, UK, France...
is in any way related to te fate of the poor abducted girls.

By the way and just looking at it from the energy perspective, Nigeria lacks no oil in its underground, sadly enough for them.

In the meantime, unnoticedly, the battle builds up in the background there too. Same actors at it, same methods old methods too:

1. China on one hand:

2. The West on the other, proxy being France in this case, that sent troops to Mali and Central Africa in the past months:

To be continued no doubt....

Anonymous said...

Assessment is always a function of purpose and perception.

It may appear that the opposition have done everything wrong, but this view is predicated on a perception of the opposition's homogenous purpose and homogenous perception.

It also de-emphasises the notion of interaction, which should not be conflated with engagement.

Life is neither binary nor static.
It is laterally dynamic.

As one contributor noted, the opponent should punch water without perceiving to be doing so.

Of course punching water leads to splashes, and splashes and their significances can be analysed as functions of purpose and perception.

Dis-information is simultaneously information, and information is simultaneously dis-information - alloys of dynamic content and relative weight.

There lie opportunities of dissonance and strategic advantage.

Anonymous said...

"None of this hurts America in any way" ??

US government spent 5 Bn USD to orchestrate a botched coup in the Ukraine. = financial loss.

Now Putin is standing up to US "there will be costs" sanctions = political loss.

This crisis has accelerated the strategic and economic alignment of China and Russia.

Bill said...

What of the Ukrainian military? Does it continue to wait and see? Do some/many units go over to the Donbas government?

Bill said...


Do you think nobody will notice that, on substance, you are agreeing with Saker entirely and that your presentation consists of spin?

WizOz said...


To delete your comments would mean to deprive us of a good laugh.

Anonymous said...

In my humble opinion, Putin doesn't want to just incorporate the Donbass into the RF because this would allow a Banderastan Ukie failed state to place NATO missile shield next door to Russia. I think that Putin is or was really hoping for a Finlandization of a coherent and stable if not truly prosperous Ukraine minus the neonazi criminally insane thugs. I take Putin at his word when he asked for the referendum to be postponed and for the elections to be the way forward IF and WHEN the constitution was updated to give greater autonomy to each of the regions. However, the referendum went ahead and now it is clear that events on the ground have superseded these calculations. Without the Crimea and Donbass counterweight the Banderastan Ukie is even more extreme and since it has a dim economic future it stands to become a NATO pawn next door to Russia. However, the IMF is going to renege on the 17 Billion promise and make the rump Ukie state bleed at a faster pace. This will cause great turmoil in the Banderastan while the Donbass and Crimea will prosper.

Erikson Bruno said...

good day!
all comments here are very interesting and I congratulate all those who contribute to make them ever more complete.

It could be a crueldeade on my part, but I'm really hoping that the joint Kiev radicalize further their actions in Ukraine. The higher the repression is fear and uncertainty. which in turn lead to a revolt against this coup government.

Anonymous said...

First of all Israel does not support the US in the Ukraine. Secondly, the corporate press is saying that those who did not support the question posed as yes or no on the ballot just did not show up. So what were the numbers ( not in percentages) who voted? Thirdly, it does not matter--the videos show that people lined up to vote risking their lives in some cases so I agree, the Western media lost the video game on this one.


@Anonymous:First of all Israel does not support the US in the Ukraine.

That is quite true and it is too bad that people often lump Israelis with AngloZionists because, as you correctly point out, the Israelis are generally backing Russia in this case. For example, Israel has offered to help Crimea get water ( although in the end the Russian military will end up providing the water by building a pipeline under the water.

There are just too many Russian Jews in Israel not to realize that the Ukie regime is neo-Nazi and racist. Besides, Bandera was never popular amongst Russian Jews for obvious reasons.

Thanks for brining up this important point!


The Saker

Nora said...

Anonymous 05:03, also Daniel Rich

Troll yes, Ukrainian maybe. But no matter where he was born, he's a sayanim and you can't believe a word he says. His loyalties are to Kiev only insofar as it furthers Zionist goals. The minute you see his name, just scroll on by.


Yes, to everything you said. We are now living in Bizarro-World.


Don't you think it would be better if the people of South East Ukraine elected who they want?

juliania said...

I tend to agree with Anonymous @ 13:39. (Take with a huge grain of salt; no expert I.

Just going by the public statements Putin has made, I do think he prefers a stable Ukraine in its entirety and in the long view will be working towards that. Fragmented really nobody wins as we see in other regions where polar opposites are created out of a single unified but diverse society. The latter is no course towards peace, as we see in Iraq, in Syria, in Libya and so on and on.

I think the populace comes out against violence and for peace and stability, in whatever part of Ukraine they will have the opportunity to make their wishes known.

Those regions which voted Sunday saw, as I do, Russia as the protector for peace and stability. I think western Ukranians, even in a different set of customs and language, also see the present junta as it is and do not want it to govern them. I am very interested to hear what that population thinks of these efforts to fragment them. The onus may have been on the eastern Ukranians till now; it shifts and is now on the west. Good citizens of your country, hold it together! Disavow the Maidan coup!

Anonymous said...

It is useful if your opponent thinks the future is the past and usually not useful to disabuse your opponent of this notion.

Nora said...


Your comments are very interesting. Thank you, and may you and yours stay safe.

Anonymous 08:53

Nah, he's just lying through his teeth. He doesn't believe a word of it either.

Guru, 11:38

"US Army never attacks enemies, friends only" WOW. I never thought of it that way, but you're right. WOW again. I would not want to be a European (or any other!) leader as we go through this, given the likelihood that, if there *is* a history, caving in to the US will not be looked upon very kindly.


It's exceedingly easy to construct a poll yielding the answers you want. A simple way is simply how you state the question(s) but there is an entire book called "How To Lie With Statistics" and there's a whole lot more that isn't even in it. Believe it or not, Pew used to be a very highly-regarded Philadelphia-area charity, until someone in power fell hard for a very ambitious woman and they dumped a lot of worthwhile organizations and accomplishments to carve out a (Neo-Liberal) name for themselves in the Big Leagues. At this point, having seen their work up close and personal in a number of cases, I don't trust a thing they say.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 12 May, 2014 09:32, and others:

Please do not talk down on prostitutes.

The ladies performing the oldest profession in the world have a very important role. Without them many rapes and sexual perversions occur.

Idiology and denial of reality cause, sometimes brutal, repression (like in the USA)and stigma, resulting in very dangerous working conditions. In tolerant countries like Nw Zealand most problems (like trafficking, and being forced) does not occur at all. And guess what: the number of clients is about the same (in EVERY country 10- 20 % of the men).

Colinjames said...

Grunt? (groan...)
Don't feed the trolls.

I heard Obama and Putin are talking directly ala Syria. that chemical weapons agreement didn't just come out of nowhere. With dissent in Germany over the Ukraine issue growing, and I assume it must be some pretty powerful financial interests behind kneecapping the US with the '400 Blackwater mercs' leak in a pro-Merkel paper (as I understand), I'm expecting some kind of negotiated settlement soon. What that will look like, I have no idea, also whether it can be implemented on top if it. But if they can reach an accord over Syria they can do the same in Ukr. Doesn't mean the US won't keep trying to f*ck Russia any way they can or drop support for the nazis, just like it didn't stop them from continuing to arm jihadis, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some major joint agreememt announced soon.


ditto on bizarro-world. I use that phrase often. It is beyond ironic that real, actual democracy in action (with PUBLICALLY COUNTED ballots no less) is demonized, ridiculed, blown off, our just plain ignored by the freedom-loving "democracies" of the west. I had left the TV on last night and woke up to BBC Intl. News, it was pretty much non-stop Boko-Haram and the Kidnapped Girls (great name for a band!) coverage, as far as I could tell.

Another European said...

Saker, you said these referenda were a "watershed". I agree.

Indeed, if they work, it may give other parts of the world the idea that yes, self-determination is possible. It's a radical concept, and would be the ultimate threat to the NWO.

Anonymous said...

What's ahead? The May 25 elections. Will this go ahead? Not so sure.

The IMF made it clear last week that their loans were conditional on Ukraine having a strong central government and retains its territory (short of Crimea). The weekend vote clearly jeopardizes both prospects, although Ukraine will likely stay together territorially unless the Kiev regime decides to lay siege to the east. Monumentally stupid as that would be.

The plan was to announce the IMF / EU deal, hold an election on the 25th, and then announce the gruesome details of the deal. The architects of IMF policy both inside and outside Ukraine are not democratic thinkers, and they saw the whole thing as a public-relations problem, not a political issue which should be debated amongst the people. The good citizens of eastern Ukraine have put politics back into their country, and hopefully the future will be shaped through dialogue.

"Yats" will slink away to some U.S. think tank, and the Right Sector goons will go back to Lviv (those who are not arrested). Germany will likely step in and, with Russia, mediate a political solution for a federalized Ukraine. The NATO people will continue to try to sell the "new cold war", but the reckless attempt to legitimize the putsch regime and the excessive propaganda which so grossly mis-characterized these events, will linger as a faint stench the way the WMD lies did a decade ago.

Nussiminen said...

With regard to the beloved Grunt, it's thanks to Saker and the rest of us that the Ukro putschists are not any more successful than they are. Just imagine what an infallible, invincible, and irresistible specimen such as Grunt would have brought about unless bogged down here, ha!

Honestly, Grunt -- your blog barfs amount to the following:

Yankee drivel,
Void and trivial

Where-Wolf said...

Seen on a news channel ticker in Canada:

Referendum results show support for independence at 89% in Donetsk and 94% in Luhansk.

No further comment was made. This represents a strong psychological victory against the Banderites.

New Insight said...

It's the 5 billion dollars that keeps on giving ...

Nussiminen said...

Grunt, may we be enlightened by your hard-hitting, highly perceptive analysis of the voter turn-outs and the results proper, please. Don't keep your audience waiting :-)

Anonymous said...

All right, Saker, I'll just play the unpleasant role of mr. Reality here. The Donbass referendum will amount exactly to what the Donbass leaders will make of it , and the signs are not encouraging.

First of all, there is no such thing as a unified leadership there. There's Gubarev speaking for setting up independent DPR, then there's Pushilin requesting that Donbass be annexed by Russia immediately, and then there's the head of the DPR "election committee" Lyagin saying that there will be no second part of the referendum now at all ( which contradicts Gubarev and prevents Donbass population from determining what it wants to do with its independence now). Additionally, the supposed head of DPR militia, Strelkov, denied issuing an order unifying militia command under himself (meaning that no one is really in charge still). So whatever else the referendum may have or have not shown, it made clear that the DPR at its higher echelons is still very much a chapito.
I suppose it may be a good point to mention that among all the DPR officials only Gubarev was semi- elected. The rest of them are just about as legitimate as the freaks in Kiev and probably less known.

So supposing that the referendum was in fact the birth of an independent entity, we now have two disorganized and impoverished territorial units where one has been, and they are fighting each other.

And when it will become clear that Russia does not want to absorb the DPR (because it isn't suicidal), what will the Donbass population then want? Who will they blame?

Boy, they really should've listened to Putin.

Anonymous said...

Clown stands on head as forecast:,PM-Tusk-%E2%80%93-Ukraine-referendums-make-mockery-of-democracy

Anonymous said...

Some bubbling from Radio Poland


sabutin said...

You write:

"Logically, the center of gravity of the Ukrainian "creeping civil war" will move to the cities of Kherson, Dniepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Zaporozhie and especially Odessa - a much larger region that the one which just voted in the referendum. "

Are you saying it is possible for a Russian-backed (or at the very least "pro-Russian") secession to extend all the way along the Dnieper least its southern most parts...and westward to Odessa? That would really throw fat on the fire!!!

sabutin said...

You write:

"Logically, the center of gravity of the Ukrainian "creeping civil war" will move to the cities of Kherson, Dniepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Zaporozhie and especially Odessa - a much larger region that the one which just voted in the referendum. "

Are you saying it is possible for a Russian-backed (or at the very least "pro-Russian") secession to extend all the way along the Dnieper least its southern most parts...and westward to Odessa? That would really throw fat on the fire!!!