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Tuesday, September 16, 2014

More short news items, a few comments and a quote by Felix Derzhinsky

Elections in Russia: the turnout was good, the result a crushing victory for Putin's party.  There is exactly zero signs of a "Russian Maidan".  The popularity of Putin is as high as ever and much, much higher than the popularity of any western leader.  The Putin-bashers everywhere have clearly failed to even have a marginal impact.

Fall session of the Duma: all the party leaders spoke and all agree that harboring any hopes for sane relations with the West is a waste of time; the consensus is now that Russia must 1) turn to the rest of the planet 2) accept the challenge to deal with a hostile and aggressive West 3) use this opportunity to disengage Russian from the western political, economic and financial system.

Banderastan: the Ukie and EU Parilaments signed an association agreement with great pomp, standing ovations and backslapping.  Truly a historical moment indeed: the EU and Ukieland will now go to the bottom together.  Great - they truly deserve each other.  The amazing, paradoxical and, frankly, funny thing is that neither side can afford this partnership and that both the EU and Ukieland will suffer the negative consequences of this disastrous agreement.

I recently came across a really funny poem in Ukrainian written by the Ukrainian author and poet Oles Buzina which, I think, perfectly expresses the nature of what happened:

За що стояли на Майдані?
За що людськую кров лили?
За те щоб ціни повишали,
І знову плакали хохли.

За те щоб Крим, знов став московським
І щоб донбаським став Донбас.
За те, щоб долю України
Рішав в Європі підарас.

My (free) translation of this into English would be:

Why did they stand on the Maidan?
Why did they shed the people's blood?
So that the prices would rise higher
So that the Ukies could cry again

So that Crimea would become Moscow's
So that the Donbass would own itself
So that the Ukraine's future
Would be decided by the Euro-homos

Novorussia: the special status offered by Poroshenko is not for Novorussia, but purely for NAF controlled territories.  Besides, as the Novorussian leaders have correctly pointed out, the Ukie Rada has no authority to pass any rules in Novorussia.  Conclusion: the the words of a senior Novorussian leader - this new law is just the basis for further negotiations, nothing more.  Apparently, there is already a wave of panic in the usual "this is the end, Novorussia has been sold out, Putin is a traitor" mode (what else is new?).  Guys, take a deep breath, wait a few days, and you will see this law for what it is: Ukie wishful thinking floating in a nauseous bubble of hot air.

[note: I have not seen the text of the status offered to Novorussia by Poroshenko.  If you see it, please email me the link or post it here]

Military situation: the Ukie counter-offensive has still not started but I still consider it all but inevitable.  Amazingly, the NAF has still not succeeded in stopping the JRF at the Donetsk Airport from shelling the city.  Considering the human cost of letting these Nazis continue to murder civilians and the political costs of looking unable to finally get this airport under control, I cannot understand why  the NAF seems to be unable to solve this problem.

I. Bezler
Interesting promotion in Novorussia: Igor Bezler, the military commander of the strategically crucial city of Gorlovka (just north of the Donetsk-Debaltsevo line) has been awarded the rank of Major-General and appointed as the Head of the Intelligence Service of Novorussia.  He is a rather mysterious and very controversial figure.  It will be interesting to see the reactions to this nomination.

Economic situation: the Ruble is falling against the Dollar and the Euro, but the Russian Central Bank makes no effort to prevent that.  Clearly, the Russians do not believe that this is more than a temporary phenomenon made worse by speculative selling.

My comments about Fedorov are eliciting some dismay.  Sorry friends, I call it as I see it.  So I would like to re-post here a comment I made yesterday: Fedorov and I probably agree on most goals and values, we are definitely on the "same side of the barricade", but I cannot say that I am impressed by his analyses which I find superficial and, no offense intended, simplistic. He does a lot of good stuff, with the Duma for example, and I have nothing against him, but he is does have a tendency to go into a "panic mode" which I don't like. Now, he is WAAAY better then Dugin, but both have this tendency to go "the house is burning! the house is burning!" when was it needed is slow, painstaking and meticulous daily work towards the goal.  You might wonder whose analyses about the Ukraine I like most: Sergei Glazev's.  Nikolai Starikov is often also very good.

Paul Craig Roberts: some commentators have been very critical of him.  Personally, I have a great deal of respect for him and I find his analyses very good.  I have nothing bad to say about him and I can think of many extremely insightful articles by him.

The campaign to slander and discredit me: I think that it has petered out and failed.  I am quite sure that those behind this campaign will try again, but for a while at least they are licking their (self-inflicted) wounds.  My only message to my detractors who have in vain tried to slander me will be a quote from the Russian singer Boris Grebenshchikov who once wrote ""нет рук для чудес, кроме тех, что чисты" or "only clean hands can accomplish miracles": this is why you will never accomplish anything.

Let's not dwell on it any more, turn the page and move on.

Now, in conclusion, a few very important reminders and general comment about panic and hysterics: 

First: what we are really dealing with is a US war on Russia.  No, it is not waged with conventional military forces or, even less so, nuclear forces, it is waged by the use of the Ukrainian people.  As they now say, the US will fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian.  Sadly, this is quite literally true.

Second: really, there is no such thing as the Ukraine, or even Banderastan or Novorussia.  These are (correct) political categories, but really, if we are really honest with ourselves, this is what we have: an occupied Ukraine and a liberated Ukraine.  That's it.  This is really the core of what is taking place.  And just as in WWII, the Ukraine is really only a battlefield for a move to Moscow.

art: Josetxo Ezcurra
Third: just as Kutuzov could not "sell out" Smolensk or Stalin could not "sell out" Kiev, Putin cannot "sell out" Novorussia.  Regardless of your assessment of Putin's morality, values, ethics or goals, you cannot possibly believe that he is that stupid and that his entire entourage of advisors are that stupid.  And even if Putin was that stupid, along with his advisors, he still cannot change the fundamental geostrategic reality that what is under attack is not the Ukraine, but Russia.  I would add that Putin, Lavrov and many other top Russian political leaders have said many times that in Yugoslavia it was really Russia which was the target of the attack, just as it is Russia which is the real objective of the war in Syria.

Fourth: an almost constant panic mode bordering on hysteria is just not the right mode to *understand* this war, much less so wage it and win.  I will gladly admit that I myself a guilty of this "sin", but at least I am able to differentiate between my fears and my analyses.  I would remind those who in Russia and in the West who are constantly predicting an apocalypse that none of their predictions (NATO attack on Russia, US nuclear attack on Russia, upheavals in Saint Petersburg, a Russian Maidan, the Ukie Nazis running over  the Donbass, etc.) have materialized so far.  Let me give one simple but extremely telling example:  for many months I have been arguing that Russia was covertly helping Novorussia while my critics argued the contrary.  My detractors were clamoring that Russia was standing by and doing nothing.  Well, who was right?  I am not saying that just to gloat or ridicule my opponents, but to make a very different point: I did not have access to any secret info and all I could do is use my knowledge and experience of Russian policies and methods and they told me, quite unequivocally, that Russia must be covertly helping.  In contrast, my critics based their "analysis" on a mix of fear and words, statements, made by various officials.  Now it is undeniable that they were wrong.  Of course, they never admitted to that but they very gradually included the undeniable fact of Russian covert help into their more recent presentations.  Fair enough, but I wish they would at least have learned their lesson. But no, they did not.  They are still functioning in exactly the same mode, mistaking their fears and prejudices with facts and analyses.  Thus my advice to all of you, my friends, is keep listening to these "prophets of imminent doom", think about their arguments, but just remember that, so far, their record is quite telling: 100% wrong.

Quoting the "Iron Felix":

There are very few people as evil and odious in history as Felix Derzhinsky, the human demon who created the Soviet secret police, the ChK.  But, as the American say, "even a broken clock is right ever 12 hours" and, as Malcolm X liked to say "I am for truth, no matter who tells it".  Well, there is a great quote by Derzhinsky which I recommend we all keep in mind and try to live by: "Чекистом может быть лишь человек с холодной головой, горячим сердцем и чистыми руками" or "a Chekist can only be a person with a cool head, a hot heart and clean hands".  Of course, this was not at all how the real Chekists were, but the notion of a "cool head, hot heart and clean hands" is very good: a cool head to avoid panic, a hot heart to be truly dedicated and clean hands to never believe that it pragmatically is right to do something which is morally wrong.

The Saker

Obama's Smart Syria Play

by Fulan Nasrullah

If you ask me I will tel you that America watched the Cancer of Al-Baghdadi and his Islamic State spread from Syria back into Iraq to create an excuse to bomb Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.


Remember earlier Obama wanted to carry out airstrikes against Syria's government in retaliation for a highly questionable chemical attack, despite the fact that earlier in 2013 Iraq arrested over 150 Islamic State of Iraq affiliated takfiri terrorists who were preparing chemical weapons in Baghdad with chemicals imported from Kuwait, Germany and Saudi Arabia. Obama's airstrikes plan was put on hold because the American an Western public saw through the flimsy sham. Instead of going to bomb Assad a little as punishment for using 'chemical weapons' on civilians, the American public understood he was going to use the cover of that to use the US Airforce to serve as the Free Syrian Army's air force a la Libya where Obama used the lie of protecting 'civilians' to use the US Airforce to help the rebels defeat Gaddafi.

Anyways to save face after the American public opposed his adventurism in Syria, he claimed he needed Congressional approval to bomb Syria, thinking that McCain an Lindsey Graham (the two vultures that thrive on consuming corpses) would get it for him. Surprise! He would have lost in Congress, so Putin graciously offered him a way out of his rope I.e the agreement to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons arsenal.

After that what happened? Along came ISIS or IS as it is now known or Da'ash to the Arabs. Suddenly Obama authorized the transfer of scores of millions of dollars of heavy weaponry to the moderate 'Syrian Opposition' (what a joke!) knowing fully well the so-called moderate rebels were bed partners or unwilling underdogs of Da'ash and Surprise! Surprise! All of Obama's weapons largesse ended up flowing first to Jabhatun-Nusrah and Islamic Front units which then took these weapons and defected to ISIS. In other cases ISIS simply showed up and raided the moderate and Islamist rebels and carted off their newly arrived American Candy Bars including sophisticated anti-tank missiles.

It was only a while but Al-Baghdadi's 'goon army' showed up across the border to liberate their home base of Iraq with....wait for it... America's contributions to the liberation of Syria in tow, including those million-dollar anti-tank guided missiles Mr Obama proudly sent forth to do battle on his behalf in Damascus.

With American weaponry and skills honed in Syria fighting against the ultra-skilled Hizbullah and the mediocre Syrian Army, Al-Baghdadi's Army of the Goons bested the million man Iraqi security forces and captured more American weapons as they marched across Iraq seizing whatever caught their fancy. Meanwhile Mr Obama or Mr Yes-We-Scan (depending on what you are on this week) sat in his Oval Office and preened and smiled widely like a Cheshire cat as Al-Baghdadi's Goon Army won one victory or the other, all the while making sure to scream and point hysterically like a pissed-off prostitute "See ISIS is becoming a threat to world peace"..

Then when he got tired of watching this charade play out, Mr Obama got down to the real purpose of his games in supplying weapons to the rebels in Syria in the first place: organizing a Coalition Of The Willing (remember them?) To Bomb The Hell Out Of Syria And Reestablish Control In Iraq. Or like I call them the Coalition Of Willing American B****es And Lackeys. 

art: Josetxo Ezcurra
Mr Obama was incredibly aided or some would say he had the incredibly good fortune to have two Americans beheaded on YouTube by IS executioners including a British accented one now called Jihad Johnny.

Now the noise blast in the world's capitals is that IS is a threat that needs to be eliminated before it strikes the homeland (America). And unsurprisingly the American public is buying it (polls show two thirds of Americans support airstrikes against IS in Syria and Iraq). All it took was two beheadings, a hoarse Obama screaming 'Islamic Terrorists!' and John Kerry and McCain conjuring up memories of 9/11 to get the American public to sign up for Airstrikes in Syria and Iraq and to put boots back on the ground in Iraq. Already there are over a thousand US troops in Iraq (so much for get out of Iraq). And then again Obama is also getting what he wanted in the beginning : regime change by US sponsored means. Maliki of Iraq who rejected a US military presence in his country that will not be accountable to Iraq has found himself out of office. Obama is already making plans for Congress to fund the so-called 'moderate' Syrian Opposition with billions of dollars until Assad falls, while the USAF will be flying over Syrian skies dropping bombs on IS at first, but imagine if another 'Chemical Attack' or 'Staged Massacre' by Assad's forces or the Shabiha takes place? Will the World's Police and the Defender of Freedom (ironic when one looks at the Patriot Act) and Democracy (Amusing if you consider Washington's record of overthrowing Democratic governments globally) be able to stand by and watch when it has its jets over the area already? No it cannot! Like Mr Obama and his predecessors say 'it' has a 'God-Given' mandate to protect.

In summary whoever concocted the plan Obama is following far must really be an evil genius mastermind.. Unfortunately for Baghdadi and co, they are pawns in a far bigger game. But again even a inconspicuous pawn sometimes may kill a King..

Fulan Nasrallah

P.S Check this Al-Jazeera report below to get a clear picture of how things are shaping up:

A couple of short news items

Dear friends,

I couple of short ones today.

First, according to the EU Parliament member Wolfgang Gerke (sp?) the EU is debating making a list of Russian journalists to be barred from entering the EU.  Banderastan already has such a black list with 35 names.  So much for "democratic" and "European" "free speech" values.  The Russian press is openly laughing.

Feel the love!
Second, those who had any doubts about where the Vatican stood on the civil war in the Ukraine now can simply the article entitled "A Church with verve is at risk in Ukraine" on the website Crux (thanks AB!).  Apparently, the defeat of the Nazi Junta puts the Uniats at risk because, quote, "Greek Catholics have also become prominent players in national affairs. They were major proponents of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in 2004/2005, and helped lead the Maidan protests earlier this year that swept pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych from power". 

Oh well, karma is a scary bitch I suppose :-)

Third, a lot of your have been posting comments and sending me emails about Evgenii Fedorov's predictions that a purge will soon happen.  Alas, I have to disappoint you.  While Fedorov seems to be a very nice guy and a sincere patriot, I don't find him credible at all and I would recommend you take everything he says with a big amount of salt.  I don't have the time to post a full refutation of his views, but just ask yourself the following: if the Novorussian authorities began printing their own currency, would you buy it?  QED.

Fourth at least, I leave you with yet another CrossTalk.  Sorry to post yet another CrossTalk right after posting one yesterday, but that is all Peter Lavelle's "fault": his shows are too good and the latest one is also spot on: the Bear - Dragon strategic alliance is by far the most important geostrategic development of the last couple of years.


The Saker

Monday, September 15, 2014

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Transcarpathia and Transnistria SitRep 06 Sep - 13 Sep

by "Y"



The local police units are still training for ATO service and small groups of police officers still volunteer to fight in the ATO. Fifteen such officers have volunteered during the period covered by this report.

Soldiers from the 128th Transcarpathian unit are returning from the front to Transcarpathia. They arrive in irregularly sized batches; 10 on September 6, a further 30 on the 7th,, then 3 large buses (so possibly 100+ troops) on the 13th. This unit is reported as serving 50 days at the front line, based at Schasta 20 km north of Lugansk. This is the unit that left the front without permission for the Ukraine military command. A commanding officer stated that all the men had served honourably. The battalion commander, named as Vitaliy Komar, was recently released on bail after being arrested in Odessa. He faces a possible 10 year prison sentence. He claims that he is has been made a scapegoat for the poor quality of the upper levels of the Ukrainian military command.

Militia members from the Transcarpathian 'Sich' group complain about poor weapons, limited ammunition that has to be acquired at their own expense or through donations, and absurd orders from above resulting in the militia being left to its own fate.

Four prisoners held by the NAF came from Transcarpathia.Three were members of the 51st Brigade and one from the Donbass battalion, with call sign 'Chrome'. These have been released. The bereaved families of 12 Transcarpathia military members have received a total of 7.3 million UAH in cash assistance (the UAH trades at about 14 to the US dollar).

In an attempt to reassure volunteers, the Transcarpathian regional commission has confirmed that reservists and conscripts defending the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine in the ATO will be recognized as combatants. The intent is to clearly make them eligible for treatment as PoWs if captured and perhaps more importantly, immunity from prosecution within Ukraine.

Finally, more refugees have arrived from the east and Crimea, bringing the total to 1485 (1039) from Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and 227 (222) from Crimea. The figures in brackets represent the totals residing within Transcarpathia at the end of August. There clearly has been a dramatic increase in the number of people fleeing from the fighting in the east. It is not clear whether these individuals are Transcarpathians who have returned or Ukrainians seeking to get as far away from the conflict as possible.

The economy is in dire straits. Local media report inflation reached 14.2% for August. Utility costs (telephone, water) are increasing whilst income remains stagnant. The limited amount of money available to organise the upcoming election is reported as a big issue for Transcarpathia.

In a wider context relating to the pending EU Agreement, a working group has been established to restore rail connections from Uzhgorod to Prague, Budapest and Romania. Another working group is look at increasing the number of border crossing points between Hungary and Transcarpathia, possibly reducing the spacing from ~35 km to about ~15 km. These changes would facilitate increased trade and tourist traffic.

Miroslav Lajcak, the Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia spent two days in Transcarpathia discussing energy issues. Slovakia claims to be able to provide a reverse flow gas supply to Ukraine. However, Gazprom has reacted to this and other attempts at providing reverse supplies. It has reduced supply to Slovakia by 10%, it will reduce gas volumes supplied to Poland and Germany, and has increased the price of gas supplied to Hungary. This latter move should make gas transit from Hungary economically unprofitable. The difference in treatment by Russia of Hungary versus Poland, Slovakia and Germany probably reflects the different positions of the respective countries: Hungary a potential ally and trading partner at one end and Poland an implacable foe at the other. If this is the case, it is interesting that Germany falls on the side of Poland rather than Hungary.

In a further move, Lukoil has announced it is interested in buying the Transneft pipeline running through Transcarpathia. Transneft has lost $62.5 million over the last five years through theft of oil. The cost for acquiring Transneft is likely to be less than $150 million.

The third phase of mobilization is very problematic country wide. The age limits for exemption are desperately high - 65 years for officers. Only 145 individuals were recruited from the Transcarpathian regions. People are simply ignoring the notices to report or fleeing the region. The authorities are trying to control this situation; the SBU is creating a database of every Ukrainian who has been captured in the east or who has gone missing. They are also monitoring internally displaced persons from the east and Crimea. The wives and mothers of conscripted soldiers are still continuing their protests, demanding that their men not be sent to the front. These protests are much smaller than earlier, booth in number and size of individual demonstrations.

The increased taxation supposedly to support the military in the east has generated 5 million UAH per month in Transcarpathia alone. This tax is based on a 1.5% levy on income and lottery winning, and excludes capital and property assets, so it affects the poorer levels of society in greater proportion, whilst the extremely wealth are relatively immune to its effects.


The main explicit political news relates to the forthcoming election. A number of local politicians are standing: Viktor Baloha District 69 around Mukachevo, Basil Petiovka District 72 around Tyachiv and Nicoletta Subs District 68 around Uzhgorod. Another politician, Istvan Gajdos, considers Ukraine to be at war making the holding of elections inappropriate. Consequently he is not standing for a major position.

Only Baloha appears prominently in news reports so far. He strongly supports the war in the east, and states that martial law should be declared if necessary. He also says this should be done for the benefit of the country, not to preserve the positions of people already in power. He has declared that money spent on political advertising would be better spent fighting the war. Consequently he has stated that he will donate all such money he receives to the military. More recently he has stated that the 'peace plan' is failing as the Ukrainian positions are being constantly shelled by the Russian-supported 'terrorists'. Consequently there can be no deals with Putin. His view is that there are two options i) full take over the east and wipe out all opposition, or ii) leave it totally, stop financing it and transfer the problem to Russia by defining new borders.

The sudden presence of Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch with pro-Russian views, in Uzhgorod raised some alarm in the local pro-regime camp, fearing he may be attempting to destabilise the region of behalf of Putin.

The usual propaganda activities are still operational. Collections, concerts and other similar events are used to raise funds for the actions in the east. The amounts involved are dwarfed by the amounts raised by the tax mentioned earlier, so the acts serve to provide a 'feel good' factor and possibly supply specific items to unofficial militias with local members. Local NGOs have been formed supposedly to further support and aid the troops. One group 'Movement to Support Transcarpathian Soldiers' was formed by a small group of local artists, media people and journalists. Their major activity seems to have been a press conference. Another group "Native Mukachevo" aims to support fighters from Mukachevo. Details are lacking so far, but they have the air of being entities used to raise the profile of those behind them.

More insidious events reflect the underlying promotion of a pure Ukrainian nation. Firstly a short report in a local online new outlet reports that 'contrary to stereotypes, some Roma soldiers will fight loyally for Ukraine'.

Secondly a local villager, Vladimir Golovchak, had the idea of creating the first children's battalion 'Falcon'. The membership includes children aged 2-10 years. The intent is to raise a patriotic spirit in these children. The associated YouTube video shows the children holding a Pravi Sektor flag central stage, with a Ukrainian flag off to one side.

Despite an agreement between Poroshenko and the Hungarian Ethnic Alliance (KMKSZ), there will not be an autonomous Hungarian region in Transcarpathia. This precludes the formation of a Hungarian voting block. The Hungarian government supports the Transcarpathian Hungarian minority in their quest for autonomy. The Hungarian minority in the region have warned that separatism might become a real problem if things get worse in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian response has taken two forms. Firstly an NGO has been created to promote the idea that Hungarian life should move closer to the Ukrainian style. This will probably be as effective as a chocolate teapot.

Secondly, and more effectively, the Transcarpathian authorities are clamping down on all forms of activity that could be seen as supporting or proposing separatism. Local pro-Ukraine media report that once potential separatists have met investigators, the 'promptly fall in love with Ukraine'. The investigators do face problems, as those interviewed frequently claim their social media pages have been hacked or vandalised. There are four reported criminal cases of Rusyn separatism, one prominent person is named as Ivan Petrovtsiy. A second case is only identified by the surname - Sidor. One local resident from Uzhgorod has been sentenced to a 3 year jail term, followed by 1 year probation. The offense cited was 'calling for violent overthrow of constitutional order, formation of illegal paramilitaries in region'. This obviously could be applied to anyone proposing or taking part in another Maidan against the current regime.

The Transcarpathian local government has not disbanded the local Berkut, contrary to the Ukrainian law passed on 25 February. Members of the Pravi Sektor object to this, probably because it weakens their strategy of using violence to silence opposition.

It is clear that the Ukrainian regime fears more attempts at separatism, and possibly any dissenting voices whatsoever. For example, I have seen images of demonstrations in Mariupol before and after the start of the ATO. From these, it seems plausible that such dissent is suppressed rather having faded away. The 'before' image I have in mind shows a public square fully occupied with anti-regime protestors. The 'after' image shows the same square with a much smaller number of pro-regime supporters, taking up about 1/4 to 1/3 of the square. There are two other distinguishing factors; the dominance of Ukrainian symbols (flags flown or being worn) and a large number of buses parked alongside the square. No such buses were present in the first protest. One possible explanation is that someone (the local oligarch?) has gone to the expense of providing uniform PR material and bussing people in from outside the locality.

On September 10, the Transnistrian Prime Minister Evgeny Shevchuk signed a law requiring all organisations that have bunkers (air raid shelters ?) and other civil security facilities to prepare them for use. It is not clear whether this is in anticipation of a possible attack from Ukraine, Moldova or both. The Ukrainian Ambassador to Moldova has denied Kiev plans to attack Transnistria.

The Transnistrian economy is severely hampered by the blockade from Moldova and Ukraine. Most of the exports were destined for Russia or Europe, using Odessa as an exit port. This is now closed as a result of the actions by Ukraine. The Gagauzian region of Moldova also has substantial trade Russia and Turkey. It is alarmed by talk of Moldova rejoining ROmania. The Moldovan economy is also very dependent on Russia. It is claimed that ~30% of its GDP arises from money returned by Moldovan migrants to Russia. Russia is currently tightening up its position regarding migrants. Moldova also exports wine and apples to Russia. The viability of this trade will ma be severely affected when Moldova signs the Association Agreement with the UE.

Political groups in Transnistria has repeated their support of the DNR in their quest for liberation from fascism. In a 2006 referendum, more than 93% of Transnistrians wanted to join the Russian federation. The Russian response has been that this is difficult because there is no shared border.

The main political issue is the undefined legal status of Transnistria. The blockade by Moldova and Ukraine severely hampers the Transnistrian economy. Transnistria has deferred the forthcoming '5+2' talks until these issues are dealt with or included within the scope of the negotiations. The Transnistrian Head of Foreign Affairs met with the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Rubin and the US Ambassador to Moldova W H Moser. The state US position is it wants to the help OSCE mission to Moldova and the '5+2' group to overcome problems and achieve concrete results. Transnistria's position is the negotiation were stopped by Moldova in 2006, only to be restarted in 2011 after much effort especially by Russia to get the talks restarted. Transnistria's suspension of the talks is in response to the economic blockade imposed by Moldova. This has been made worse because Chisinau and Kiev now only allow Transnistrian exports to pass if they have been documented by Moldova. This imposes additional time and monetary costs on the affected goods. Transnistria's position is that it simply wants to run its foreign trade interdependently of Moldova. More recently, Moldovan customs officers at Tiraspol airport have started imposing overly intrusive examinations of the luggage of Transnistrian politicians.

The US has requested that Russia withdraw its peacekeeping troops from Transnistria. The basis for their demand is that the presence does not comply with the Combat Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement. Lavrov has rejected this blatant attempt to weaken Transnistria by stating that the West has not signed the document, so it has no meaning in this case. The US position is made more obvious by their demand that the OSCE mission needs unrestricted access to Transnistrian region because of rising tensions on Ukraine border. The conveniently skip over the fact that the tensions are the result of Ukraine's actions, not those of Transnistria.

One major strand of propaganda is that Russian troops in Transnistria will be used to attack Odessa as the basis for a unified Novorossian coastal zone. This ignores the reality that the peacekeeping force in Transnistria is a roughly equal mix of Transnistrian, Moldovan and Russian troops. If the Russian troops leave Transnistria, then pro-US forces will have little difficulty in overwhelming the Transnistrian forces.

The most amusing propaganda tale relates to the appearance of 'so-called green men' in Moldova, as reported by Moldovan counter-intelligence. These 'little green men' have managed somehow or other to mysteriously appear on Moldovan territory. They attempt to recruit young people as saboteurs, who are taught methods of disinformation, how to act in emergency situations, and how to handle small arms. These green men are, of course, not visible to the normal human eye, but are 'irrefutable evidence' that Transnistria is preparing for war and Russia is recruiting saboteurs.

Listening to Lavrov giving up on the West

Yesterday, I watched with interest a talkshow called "The Right to Know" which featured an hour long interview with Sergei Lavrov (those who understand Russian can watch it here).  It was an interesting exchange between Lavrov and five Russian reporters.  It was not important enough to warrant translating it all into English, but I want to share with you something which I had noticed in the past but which was powerfully expressed during this conversation.

Predictably, the topics included the civil war in the Ukraine, the status of the investigation about the shooting down of MH17, sanctions against Russia, the expansion of NATO, the negotiations in Minsk and Russia's engagement with the BRICS countries.

All all these topics, the Q&A had a similar format.  One of the reporters asked Lavrov to comment on what appeared to be a dead-end situation and Lavrov confirmed saying "we tried our best, but to our great regret, that had no effect".  What was so interesting is that while the reporters were expressing bafflement that things had gone so far, Lavrov's reaction was "yes, you are right, this is truly hopeless".  The overall effect was one of a PTA meeting discussing some hopelessly stupid and incapable student.  Except the "student" in this case was the entire West.

For example, about MH17 the reporters voiced their amazement at the sterility and vagueness of the recently released report.  They noticed that while the entire western media went into a full hysteria mode with headlines like "PUTIN THE TERRORIST!!!!" or "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!" they all apparently totally forgot that the investigation was still ongoing.  Lavrov's reaction was "yes, I agree, well, we tried at the UN Security Council, we submitted our questions, we wanted a full ceasefire with a thorough investigation of the debris, we offered our own information, we spoke to the Malaysians, we wanted to speak to the experts, but they spent three weeks in Kiev talking to the Junta officials,, we still have questions but we are the only ones who apparently are still interested in getting a full transparent and accountable investigation going" (this is no a quote, but a faithful paraphrase, I think).  The sense one got from listening to this was "frankly, they are hopeless, what else can we do?"

Touching upon the sanctions, the reporters said that many countries were surprised at the speed at which Russia turned away from the West and began building relations with Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Indian Subcontinent and, again, Lavrov replied "yes, we were even surprised by the pace of events ourselves, but we had no choice".

This is not the only show which sends the same message.  The sense that I am getting is that Russia has given up on the West.  Sure, she will continue talking, and she will try, against all evidence, to elicit some adult responsible behavior from western politicians, but nobody in Russia is holding his/her breath.

On another show (Sunday Evening with Vladimir Soloviev) the participants remarked that Germany had taken the lead in putting pressure on Finland, the Slovak Republic and the other nations who did not want to adopt more sanctions.  Again, the message was "forget about the Germans, they are hopeless".

I believe that there is a sincere and widespread sense of disgust and hopelessness in Russia towards the EU countries.  As for the USA, they are mostly seen as a hate-filled messianic lunatic who will do anything and everything to harm Russia in any way it can, no matter how crazy, absurd, useless and hypocritical.

All this builds up to a consensus that while war with the USA and NATO must be avoided, of course, there is nothing much else to be gained from making much efforts.  Many politicians now say "our foreign policy has been way to fixated on the West and that needs to be stopped - our future is elsewhere".

The recent adoptions of sanctions against Russia are a perfect example of that.  While I few hardcore pro-US liberal figures complain, I kid you not, that the French 'belon' oysters will not be available in Moscow, most people see that these sanctions are a blessing in disguise as they force Russia to sever links with the West, something they believe should have been done long ago.  In the short term, the western sanctions will "bite", especially on some high-tech items, but by and large most people understand that being dependent on the West for such items was the real mistake in the first place.

Again, the prevailing sense is one of disgust, bewilderment, and fatigue.  Though somebody as diplomatic as Lavrov will never say the, the general reaction is clearly "you guys are both hopeless and in decline; we don't need, you, goodbye".  This is said without anger, mostly with sadness, really.

I don't think that Russian diplomats will make a big anti-western statement at the UN or anywhere else.  The opposite of love is not hatred, but indifference.  And Russian officials will continue to speak of "our partners" or even "our friends", but while this nice sounding rhetoric will continue, relations with the West will gradually cease to be a priority for the Russian diplomacy, business community and even general public.  In fact, Russia is already building a multi-polar world and if the West wants no part of it - tough.  The Russians know that the West cannot prevent the emergence of this new world, and they don't really care if they refuse accept this reality or play by the new rules.

One more thing: the Russians are most definitely upset about the very aggressive NATO stance because they - correctly - interpret it as a sign of hostility.  But,  contrary to what a lot of bloggers say, the Russians have no fear of the military threat posed by NATO.  Their reaction to the latest NATO moves (new bases and personnel in Central Europe, more spending, etc.) is to denounce it as provocative, but Russian officials all insist that Russia can handle the military threat.  As one Russian deputy said "5 rapid reaction diversionary groups is a problem we can solve with one missile".  A simplistic but basically correct formula.  Putin said the very same thing when he clearly spelled out that in case of a massive conventional attack by "anybody" Russia would engage tactical nukes.  In fact, if NATO goes ahead with its stupid plan to deploy forces in Poland and/or the Baltics I expect Russia with withdraw from the IRNF Treaty and deploy advanced successors to the famous RSD-10 (SS-20).  As I mentioned before, the decision to double the size of the Russian Airborne Forces and to upgrade the elite 45th Special Designation Airborne Regiment to full brigade-size has already been taken anyway.  You could say that Russia preempted the creation of the 10'000 strong NATO force by bringing her own mobile (airborne) forces from 36'000 to 72'000.  Having thus taken care of the threat, the Kremlin will simply turn to more important business elsewhere.

Among the many misconceptions we absorb during our training (I cannot call it "education) we, in the West, have a tendency to view our part of the world as the center of the planet, some even would say the indispensable and only truly important one.  This can be seen in our systematically Europe or US centered maps of the world, to our quasi dogmatic beliefs that nobody matters as much as we do.  This is wrong.  In fact, while the AngloZionist Empire is on slow but steady and ineluctable decline, the rest of the world pays it the needed lip service and basically moves on.  If the training facilities we call "schools" had any educated educators we would start hanging China-centered maps of the world in our training rooms, and we would tell out young trainees that nobody takes the so-called "western values" seriously anymore.  Not because they are not good, but because clearly we, in the West, don't take them seriously in the first place.

Obama announced a "pivot" towards Asia but, in a typical AngloZionist manner, all this pivot really meant was more military forces and more pressure to obey the Empire's demands.  Unlike the US, Russia did not announce any "pivot", but Putin already met with Xi Jinping four times this year and both sides have declared that their strategic partnership was the strongest it had ever been in the history of their relationship.

Russia is really turning her gaze to China, Latin America, Africa and elsewhere.  Her diplomats will continue to talk, smile, speak of "partners" and "friends", but I believe that  we are witnessing a historical event: for the first time since the 13th century, Russia is turning away from the West again and betting her future with Asia (and the rest of the planet).

The Saker

14TH September 2014 Nigeria SITREP

by Fulan Nasrallah

First Battle Of Konduga 

It took me almost 48 hours to obtain very reliable information of how events played out on the ground in Konduga Town, Konduga LGA, Borno State of North East Nigeria, on 12th September, when insurgent fighters in their hundreds launched a two-pronged assault targeting Kawuri Village and Konduga Town about 40km from Maiduguri to the south and east.

Utilizing night cover around 3:45AM scores of fighters drawn from combined Yusufiyya forces (all four groups) struck at Kawuri Village, engaging CJTF forces and an estimated company-sized force of soldiers for twenty minutes.

Fifteen minutes after the Kawuri assault began, a main force of some 450 fighters (confirmed) in trucks and Toyota picukups attacked Konduga from the direction of Bama.

Meanwhile company-sized elements drawn from 143 Infantry Battalion (newly trained by US California National Guard Special Operations personel drawn from 19th Special Forces Group) and 176 Special Forces Battalion (detached Brigade Of Guards), and supporting tube field artillery units drawn from a yet unspecified artillery unit within 1 Division, had developed proper defensive and firing zones into which the insurgents were channeled.

At 09:00AM, 150 insurgent reinforcement fighters arrived on scene accompanied by several truck mounted 60mm and 81mm mortar pieces providing the insurgents with their first artillery cover of the engagement (the insurgents are confirmed to have mostly utilized truck mounted 12.5mm machine guns along with man portable Dashoka and RPG teams to provide heavy weapons support throughout the engagement).

By some minutes past 12PM, insurgent forces broke off the assault retreating with scores of wounded why living some 80 something bodies (confirmed) on the field. A military source on the scene confirmed that over 35 soldiers were killed and dozens more injured in various degrees.

Insurgent forces abandoned damaged vehicles and the Army captured several mortar pieces. Army patrol units followed the retreating insurgents, harassing them and conducting recon-by-fire sweeps until 5km outside Konduga they ran into fresh insurgent troops (estimated at a 100 or so) and a firefight broke out lasting some 18 minutes while the the retreating insurgents retreated, then the obvious rearguard (the new arrivals) and the Army recon units broke off contact, each side returning to its territory.


Notable in this was the ‘complete lack of air cover’. Despite frantic radio appeals by on the ground commanders for air support, ‘not one jet showed up’ over the battlefield.

Firstly for the Nigerian Army this was an important battle and victory especially for its propaganda value. With elements of arguably the two best-trained formations in the entire Nigerian Army deployed to engage the insurgents at Konduga, based on what was definitely credible enough intelligence, it is obvious the Nigerian Government was intent on securing a victory (the commanders for morale, the politicians for political points). But on closer examination, this battle and victory for the Nigerian Army was not strategically worth it, and here:

1) This was not an attempt to seize Konduga as is being portrayed in the media nor was the intention to march on Maiduguri. This was a probing attack to test the defensive positions around Maiduguri. 600 men (total number of insurgent fighters said to have taken part at the Battle of Konduga) is definitely not enough to invest and seize Konduga not to talk of Maiduguri, and the insurgents are definitely not stupid (stupid people don’t outsmart an army like Nigeria’s and overrun towns and a city in three whole states). In seizing Gulak, Madagali, Bazza, and Michika, places with considerably less military presence than Konduga, they employed nothing less than 1,000 fighters per each operation. For Konduga, they needed at minimum, 1,800 fighters and definitely much more artillery and heavy weapons support than was used at the last battle of Konduga.

2) The insurgents do not lack artillery (mortars, recoiless rifles, Triple-A guns), but surprisingly they did not deploy much artillery which they would have did (especially the Tripple-A guns), if they intended to capture Konduga.

I expect more of such probes to take place along the approaches to Maiduguri. If the insurgents aim to seize Maiduguri, this might be a prelude to a full-scale assault on Konduga, in which case building on lessons learnt from it, the knowledge gained of the kind of forces they may likely meet in a second battle of Konduga will definitely be put to use by the insurgent battle-planners.

Did this battle change anything? Absolutely did not. Just some kilometers outside Konduga insurgent forces maintain their very visible presence. There was no withdrawal from positions which they occupy.

The Army did not press the advantage it should have gained had its opponents been in flight from the battlefield, rather it did not because it could not, and the recon-by-fire teams it sent out to harass the retreating insurgents were forced back under fire from rebel rearguard forces.

On Bama And Other Towns

Ineffectual aerial raids (note my choice of words, raids, not bombardments) continue on almost daily basis targeting already bombed-out locations apparently still marked as ‘suspected terrorist positions’ e.g the mosques and areas the palaces of traditional rulers in insurgent-occupied towns.

Some civilian casualties are said to have been killed by exploding aerial ordnance in Bama yesterday and today, although this cannot be confirmed.

Do these raids serve any meaningful strategic purpose? I have been asked this question by many followers of this blog via email. The answer depends on if these raids were designed to degrade insurgent capabilities or just to annoy the insurgents and piss them the flaming hell off.

If the aim was the first, the aircraft are too few and too vulnerable to enemy Triple-A guns to do any serious damage. Add the fact that very few insurgents are in the towns as most are dispersed in the surrounding hills and bushes.

However if the aim was to annoy the insurgents like a stingless male anopheles mosquito buzzing in the air, then the aim can certainly be described as over achieved as not only the insurgents but also the locals left in the areas have been pissed off by the air raids that seem to do nothing but destroy the mosques.

Shot Down Jet?

On Saturday 13th September I was made aware that the previous day, a single Alpha Jet was scampered to provide air support to troops battling insurgents at Konduga, my initial source who is a ranking AirForce officer said the plane is suspected to have been shot over Bama-Gwoza axis or Northern Adamawa State. An Insurgent source whom I sent a feeler to claims that a Triple-A gun in Limankara belonging to Harakatul-Muhajiriin claimed to have engaged a Nigerian AirForce plane between 11:00AM and 11:09AM scoring hits . Today the second day after the Alpha Jet left base and did not return, the Director of Defence Information, Major-Gen Chris Olukolade announced via email to journalists that an Alpha Jet with two pilots is ‘missing’ somewhere over Adamawa, leaving base by 10:45AM on a mission and expected back by 12pm, putting it in the air at the time my source claimed a plane was engaged by anti-aircraft fire.

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Return of the Magyars: Hungary’s President Calls Out the US as Morally and Financially Bankrupt

Note from The Saker: amongst my many blind spots and list of topics I know practically nothing about there is, to my great shame, the topic of Hungarian politics. Therefore please address your comments, criticisms and reactions (and thanks!!!) to American Kulak but not to me. I am most definitely the least qualified to say anything at all about this.

Cheers and enjoy!

The Saker

Return of the Magyars: Hungary’s President Calls Out the US as Morally and Financially Bankrupt

by American Kulak

With so many developments in Ukraine and now a renewed US war on Syria with the Islamic State as the pretext, it has been easy to overlook important developments in the struggle to restore sovereign nations in Europe. As described in my last guest post here at the Vineyard, Scottish independence vote on Thursday, September 18 has forced Anglo-American mainstream media to cover the topic of ‘separatism’ as a wave spreading from the Scottish Highlands to Spain’s Catalonia. Many mainstream media outlets have repeated ridiculous propaganda about NATO or the EU coming apart and the economic sky falling from a Scottish ‘Yes’ vote (James Bond film reference deliberate in that sentence). Some of the usual Russophobic voices have started whining about ‘pro-Kremlin bloggers’ trolling Washington and London on Twitter with humorous captions supporting Scotland’s independence [], or the positive statements Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond has made about Vladimir Putin. []

A Short Disclaimer Regarding Hungary

Today’s topic is the next target for the Empire’s Two Minutes Hate propaganda in Europe (besides Marie Le Pen and the National Front of France): the ancient nation of Hungary and her proud president, Viktor Orban. Let me start by saying that as an American citizen and independent blogger, I have no financial or blood ties to Hungary, nor is my intent to defend all of Budapest’s policies. My purpose in this post is to examine why the Empire increasingly views the Hungarian government with disdain and has sent out its usual NGO and media mouthpieces to trash President Viktor Orban personally and attack his ‘Putinist’ pro-Russian worldview. In doing so I approach this post from the perspective of someone who is a neophyte to Hungarian politics, but not to the overall games the European Union plays to keep its member nations as vassals to what Saker calls the ‘Anglo-Zionist’ Empire.

Why is Budapest Emerging as a Key Russian Ally Within the European Union?
A Millennium of Hungarian History and Its Relevance to Novorossiya

The Hungarians, for those Saker readers who may not be familiar with their history, are descended from the same great migrations out of central Asia in the first millennium AD as the Bulgars, with Russian scholars believing the Magyars came out of a southern Urals homeland east of the Volga steppe. Driven by ancient enemies known as the Pechenegs who alternated between warring with the Orthodox Christian Eastern Roman Empire and serving as mercenaries of Byzantium, the Hungarians settled in the Danube River and Carpathian basins. Their language, like that of the Finns, is non-Indo European and easily exceeds Finnish and Basque as the most widely spoken non-Indo-European language on the European continent. Only a few decades after Prince Vladimir baptized the Kievan Rus in 987, the first Christian monarch of the Magyars Saint Stephen I converted the traditional seven Hungarian tribes to Christianity in the early 10th century. Under Stephen’s successful reign prior to the Great Schism of 1054 between Rome and Constantinople, Hungary prospered as the major trading route between the Germanic Holy Roman Empire and the Byzantines. Stephen’s younger sister married a Venetian prince who at that time was a key ally of Byzantium, while Stephen’s wife was a Bavarian princess. []

The historic parallels between Hungary and Rus did not stop with Stephen and the Second Rome, but continued in the 13th century. During those turbulent decades the Mongol Tartars, who subjugated nearly all of Russia, were turned back by Hungarian knights and their Holy Roman Empire allies. Unfortunately, wars in the following two centuries with the Poles and German kingdoms and dynastic struggles weakened the Hungarians, until they succumbed to the Ottoman Turkish advances and were forced into alliance with the Catholic Hapsburgs. This also led to the counter-reformation in the Hungarian lands, with negative consequences for Protestants and Orthodox Christians alike. In 1686 after the Turks decisive defeat by the Polish-led armies at the Battle of Vienna the future Hungarian capital of Buda was liberated from the Ottoman yoke, and the last Ottoman raid from Crimea into Hungary was recorded in 1717. After the 1708 Battle of Trenscen the Hungarians were fully absorbed into the Papist Hapsburg Empire which became known as Austro-Hungary. During World War I the Hungarians suffered huge casualties fighting the Serbs and Russians on behalf of their Hapsburg emperor.

After WWI the key document many Hungarian nationalists to this day regard with bitterness, the Treaty of Trianon [], was signed in 1920 which cost Hungary 71% of its territory and 66% of its pre-war population -- an even more punitive outcome than the Allied diktats imposed on the Germans in the punitive Treaty of Versailles produced by the same victors. This lost territory included the TransCarpathian region which is today in far southwestern Ukraine, where the Hapsburgs had kept thousands of ethnic Rusyns in concentration camps for returning to Orthodox Christianity or refusing to convert to Papism during the First World War. It is from this territory that ethnic Rusyn and ethnic Hungarian community leaders have issued a joint statement in both languages about their desire to achieve the full autonomy within Ukraine they were promised in 1991 and denied since then by Kiev. In the same early August statement viewable with English subtitles on the Anti-Maidan YouTube channel, the Hungarian and Russian-speaking Rusyn leaders denounced Kiev’s war against Novorossiya and mentioned Rusyn/Hungarian solidarity based on a 1,000 years of peaceful coexistence. This statement was carried on Hungarian television and is viewable here: []. More background on the Rusyns undergoing Hapsburg and other persecutions from a pro-Rusyn/Russian perspective can be found here: [].

It’s no accident, that on the heavily Empire-manipulated platform of Wikipedia, the Rusyns are covered under ‘Peoples of Ukraine’ despite the fact that they are spread across borders with Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, and that the Rusyn autonomy or separatist movement dating back to 1991 is dismissed as a Kremlin project []. In short, regardless of Hungary’s willingness to sell the Kiev regime hundreds of T-72 battle tanks to replace catastrophic Ukrainian losses of armor in recent months, Kiev views Hungarian nationalism with suspicion. The Ukrainian ultra-nationalists and Galicia Nazis (correctly in my opinion) suspect alongside their Anglo-American globalist patrons that if Ukraine completely implodes Trans-Carpathia could secede like Novorossiya, but with Hungarian rather than Russian sponsorship.

The worst nightmare of the Kiev junta is not only losing Kharkov, Zaporozhe and Odessa regions to Novorossiya, but facing a simultaneous NAF and Russian-allied uprising in the guerrilla-friendly Carpathians backed by Hungarian guns and fighters. Even a peaceful, anti-war and anti-oligarchic Hungarian/Rusyn Maidan would have to be crushed by the Kiev Nazis using brutal methods Washington and Brussels would have trouble excusing or imposing a news blackout over.

One other point is relevant to the paragraph above. Under the notorious 1938 Munich agreement between Nazi Germany and her allies and the Western powers, Hungary made territorial gains at the expense of Czechoslovakia, which was completely carved up between Nazi Germany, Hungary, the pro-Nazi Slovak regime of the time, and the sainted ‘Christ between two thieves’ Poles. This included Carpatho-Ruthenia, which became western Ukraine after the War. The Nazis cultivated the fascist Arrow Cross Party as allies, and had no interest in any maintaining Czech-granted autonomy for any Russophilic peoples as they plotted to invade the Soviet Union. [].

The Hungarians participated in Operation Barbarossa and fought alongside their uneasy Romanian and German allies until the Soviets smashed the Axis lines near Stalingrad in November 1942. The Hungarians like the Bulgarians sought to switch sides as soon as it was obvious Nazi Germany was doomed in mid-1943 but a fascist puppet regime was installed to keep Hungary in the war. The Arrow Cross Nazi puppet state collapsed under Red Army guns in early 1945. In October and November of 1956 a Hungarian uprising against the Soviets was crushed by Red Army tanks sent by Nikita Khrushchev. This uprising had been inspired by broadcasts into Hungary by Radio Free Europe, but the Eisenhower Administration did very little to help the Hungarian freedom fighters besides raise token protests. Washington notably refused to cancel US grain shipments to the Soviet Union at that time and hosted Khrushchev (as pointed out in a recent column by Patrick J. Buchanan) within months of the Soviets killing thousands of Hungarians. The anniversary of the October 23rd uprising became a national holiday in 1989 when Communist regimes across the Warsaw Pact collapsed. Among the young Hungarian activists celebrating their country’s return to the West was a then 26-year-old co-founder of the Hungarian Alliance of Young Democrats, Viktor Orban. []

Why President Viktor Orban is Viewed as a Traitor to the Atlanticists and the Empire

James S. Denton is listed as the publisher and editor of World Affairs on his bio. World Affairs is the magazine of Freedom House, one of the many taxpayer-funded NGOs that has been in the business of regime change in Eastern Europe and Eurasia since the CIA and State Department decided to ‘outsource’ these propaganda functions during the mid-1980s. Interestingly enough, despite Hungarian President Viktor Orban’s alleged turn towards ‘Putinism’ Mr. Denton still lists himself as a former adviser to then Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary here: []. Presumably Denton was an advisor to Orban in 1998 when the democratic, anti-Communist reformer became the second youngest Prime Minister in Hungarian history. With a generally positive world economy during the years from 1998 to 2002 Orban’s government was able to cut taxes, abolish university tuition for qualified students, and expand maternity benefits, while attracting German industry with low-cost Hungarian labor. Most importantly to the Empire, in 1999 Hungary joined NATO along with Poland and the Czech Republic over Russia’s objections. That same year Hungary was forced to participate in the war against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia by participating in a trade embargo against Belgrade.

In recognition of Orban’s loyal efforts on behalf of NATO in 2002 he was awarded the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute’s Freedom Award and awards from the ‘New Atlantic Initiative’ and Germany’s ‘Förderpreis Soziale Marktwirtschaft’. Orban was clearly accepted by the trans-Atlantic elites. But everything started to change in 2010 when his Fidesz returned to power after six years in opposition. Suddenly Orban’s party had a two thirds majority, enough to change the Hungarian constitution, and Orban became a ‘European Hugo Chavez’ in the words of the German Green party politician Daniel Cohn-Bendit -- ironically, a former 1968 radical whose younger self would’ve appreciated Red Chavismo. This started a wave of propaganda against the Hungarian government alleging that it was crushing the opposition, restricting a free press, in short demonizing Fidesz as the Hungarian version of United Russia and Orban as the Hungarian Putin.

To be fair, Orban did not take the German and Anglo-American/Atlanticist criticism lying down. He denounced German TV propaganda against Hungary, reminding Merkel about Nazi occupation of his country during WWII, and refused to back off the anti-EU rhetoric he had cleverly promoted since at least 2006. Orban’s critics doubled down on their shrill rhetoric accusing him of destroying democracy and minority rights in Hungary, signing sweetheart nuclear energy and gas deals with Russia, and pandering to the ultra-nationalist if not fascist Jobbik party which has won 20% of the vote and made anti-Jewish statements. The same Jobbik party the Empire’s propaganda shills like Jamie Kirchick of the neocon propaganda-staffel ‘Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’ alleges is part of a vast Putinist conspiracy to bring right wing parties to power across Europe using covert Kremlin cash. []

Orban’s ‘Infamous’ ‘Illiberal’ Speech of July 26, 2014 and Why the Empire (Correctly) Sees It as Treason Against the ‘New World Order’

Which brings us to the present controversies -- not only over Orban’s stubborn refusal together with the Austrians to support more sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, but above all over Orban’s speech this summer denouncing the USA’s dominance of Europe and the EU’s subservience to a declining American Empire. To the Atlanticist elites who had long condemned Orban as an aspiring dictator -- the ‘Mussolini of Hungary’ as the shriveling circulation Newsweek dubbed him -- Orban had declared war on democracy. []

For Charles Gati, a Senior Research Professor of European and Eurasian Studies at Johns Hopkins University [], the sense of betrayal was personal: Orban had been one of his brightest young students in the heady days after the fall of Communism in Hungary. For Orban to describe the United States as a malign cultural and economic influence on Europe was a slap to the face to Gati and others like Freedom House’s James S. Denton who had groomed Orban to be a reliable satrap of benevolent US hegemony. Gati’s op-ed for the same AEI that had once given Orban its Freedom Award was titled, “Putin’s Mini-Me: The Mask is Off”. [] In his American Interest piece Gati quotes Orbán telling a room in Washington back in 1998: “whatever I know about contemporary politics and history I’ve learned from Professor Gati.” Gati accused his former pupil of issuing an “incoherent” rant against the USA that made no sense in the original Hungarian or when translated into English, full of anti-American “clichés”. Nearly all Western media outlets that covered Orban’s speech delivered to a group of peaceful Hungarian nationalists at a ‘right-wing’ youth summer camp in late July concurred. No one apparently wanted to quote the speech or take it seriously as a patriotic cry from the heart against the decadence and decline of the Western civilization Orban had embraced as a young man.

The Essence of ‘Orbanism’ -- Disillusionment with the West and the Search for a Eurasian Future

So, what exactly did Orban say in Kotscse near Lake Balaton, that was so shocking the press-titutes were terrified to quote it at any length? Here are the most important excerpts, in my opinion, as translated by The Budapest Beacon and preserved here: []. Orban starts by referring to the defining moment of Hungarian politics, the change or Die Wende of 1989, saying for too long Hungarians have clung to the recent past rather than addressed the 21st century future:

My speech today is not connected to the elections. Our acting president introduced us as regime changers, and did it by recalling the regime change. This represents well that for our generation the regime change is the generational experience to which we compare everything, against which we measure everything, from where we start to define everything that happens around us. It seems natural, although it is rather a disadvantage for us, not an advantage.
As speeches go, this is hardly controversial stuff. But what follows is what has angered Washington’s propagandists of unshakable Western hegemony and unending Anglo-American dominance:
I would suggest to shortly remind ourselves that in the 20th Century there have been three major world-regime changes. At the end of World War I, at the end of World War II, and in 1990. The common points in these were – I might have mentioned this here once – that when the changes manifested it was clear for all of us that we are going to live in a different world overnight. Let’s say it was very clear here after Trianon [the previously mentioned Hungarian ‘Versailles diktat’ of 1920 that cut off Budapest from ancient lands - AK], just as it was in Budapest after World War II as well. If the people looked around and saw the invading Soviet troops they knew that a new world was about to begin. In ’90 when we succeeded in breaking and displacing the communists, it was clear after the first parliamentary elections that a new world had arrived for us: the wall in Berlin collapsed, elections were held and this is another future.
Now I must quote Orban at length, for he gets to the essence of his statement -- ‘the West’ as a unitary entity led by the USA with a [soon to be Scotland-less] United Kingdom sidekick looks washed up, and it’s Davos-attending Western politicians and tycoons themselves who are saying so. Orban also -- shock, horror -- dismisses the so-called ‘economic recovery’ in the United States since 2008 as the middle class destroying, Federal Reserve-pumped up and fake stats fraud that it is:
The statement intended to be the basic point of my talk here is that the changes in the world nowadays have the similar value and weight. We can identify its manifestation – that point when it became clear – as the financial crisis of 2008 or rather the Western financial crisis. And the importance of this change is less obvious because people sense it in a different way as the previous three. It was unclear in 2008 during the huge Western financial collapse that we are going to live in a different world from now on. The shift is not that sharp as in the case of the three previous world regime changes and it somehow slowly resolved in our minds, as the fog sets on the land. If we look around and analyze the things happening around us, for six years this has been a different world from the one we lived in. And if we project the processes for the future – which always has a risk – it is a reasonable intellectual exercise, and we see well that the changes will only have a bigger impact.

Well, Honorable Ladies and Gentlemen, for the sake of illustrating the deepness of this change, without any particular order, I assembled a few sentences, ideas from the Western World, as well as one or two from the Eastern World, too, that are stunning. If we assessed them through the lens of the pre-2008 liberal worldview, we would be shocked. Yet if we do not view it that way but understand from these sentences how long a way we have gone in terms of public speech, topics and their articulations in these last six years, then these sentences to be quoted will help us understand how profound the change is that is taking place in the world today.
Very briefly: In America, the President of the US has made numerous and repeated statements regarding how America has been engulfed by cynicism, and the task for American society and the American government is to declare war on cynicism originating from the financial sector. Before 2008, such a statement would have resulted in exclusion from gentlemanlike international discourse, additionally because of the characteristics of the financial system, it would probably have even been tainted with as being sinister, making any utterance of such sentences extremely perilous. Contrary to this, these ideas constantly appear in the American press as of late. The US president says that if a hardworking American constantly has to choose between career and family, that America will lose its place in the world economy. Or the President openly speaks about economic patriotism. He [Obama] says such sentences that would still earn beating and stoning in today’s provincial Hungarian public life. For example, he openly speaks about how companies employing foreigners should pay their fair share in taxes. Or he openly speaks about how companies employing Americans should be supported before anyone else. These are all voices, ideas and sentences that would have been unimaginable six or eight years earlier.

To proceed further, according to a well-recognized analyst, the strength of American “soft power” is deteriorating, because liberal values today incorporate corruption, sex and violence and with this liberal values discredit America and American modernization [This is the so-called ‘cliche’ that Gati found so intolerable, which appears self-evident to the Kulak and millions of other Christian and traditionalist Americans - AK]. Also, the Open Society Foundation [funded by George Soros - AK] published a study not long ago analyzing Western Europe. In this, we could read a sentence which says that Western Europe was so preoccupied with solving the situation of immigrants that it forgot about white working class. Or the British prime minister said that as a consequence of the changes happening in Europe, many became freeloaders on the back of the welfare systems. One of the richest Americans, who was one of the first investors in the company Amazon stated that we are living in a society that is less and less capitalist and more and more feudal, and if the economic system does not reform itself then middle class will disappear, and, as he puts it, “the rich will be attacked by pitchforks”. Therefore, he [Orban is referring to the German-born billionaire investor Nick Hanauer’s article published in Politico here: -AK] thinks a middle-up economic model is needed instead of a top-down model. It is not my intention to interpret these sentences, simply to cite them here in order to show the novelty of these ideas that were impossible to talk about only six years ago.

Or, similarly from America, the number of unemployed youth has drastically risen [Mr. Orban clearly doesn’t buy the ‘cooked’ US unemployment numbers contrasted with the real 16-20% unemployment figures compiled by John Williams published at - AK], and in the case of the most promising career options, children from families with affluent families receive a far greater advantage – this is said in the homeland of social mobility [a reference by Orban, perhaps, to the millions of Hungarians who emigrated to the USA prior to and after WWII - AK]. Or to cite something else: another respected analyst said that the internet, understood by the liberal world as the greatest symbol of freedom for many long years, is being colonized by big corporations. His statement suggests that the big question is whether great capitalist companies, meaning international corporations, would be successful in doing away with the neutrality of the internet. Going forward, to quote a development that is both dear and unexpected for us, the English prime minister, who awkwardly avoids his party being identified as Christian Democratic, stands up in before the public stating that Christianity is a core principle of British values, and despite multiculturalism, Great Britain is a Christian country in heart, and this is a fact to be proud of.

Besides suggesting the USA is a power in cultural and economic decline, Orban added blasphemy to heresy by suggesting Hungary could learn much from the rising BRIC nations, plus the Hungarians old Ottoman overlords the Turks who have modernized their economy under the authoritarian and double-dealing (between Iran, Russia, and China on one side and NATO and the Sunni Persian Gulf states on the other) Recep Tayyip Erdogan:

Everyone was only talking about competition in the world economy. Globalization on the international scale made it necessary to do a lot of talking, writing and analysis about it, and this phenomenon is known in details. We can more or less know why a major economic interest group, for example the European Union, is competitive, or why it is losing its competitiveness. However, according to many, and I belong to them, today this is not the principal question. It remains an important question. As long as people live off money and economy, this will remain an important question. Yet there is an even more important race. I would articulate this as a race to invent a state that is most capable of making a nation successful. As the state is nothing else but a method of organizing a community, a community that in our case sometimes coincides with our country’s borders, sometimes not, but I will get back to that, the defining aspect of today’s world can be articulated as a race to figure out a way of organizing communities, a state that is most capable of making a nation competitive. This is why, Honorable Ladies and Gentlemen a trending topic in thinking is understanding systems that are not Western, not liberal, not liberal democracies, maybe not even democracies, and yet making nations successful. Today, the stars of international analyses are Singapore, China, India, Turkey, Russia. And I believe that our political community rightly anticipated this challenge, and if we think back on what we did in the last four years, and what we are going to do in the following four years, than it really can be interpreted from this angle. We are searching for and we are doing our best to find – parting ways with Western European dogmas, making ourselves independent from them – the form of organizing a community, that is capable of making us competitive in this great world-race.
By great world race and dismissing mere economic competition as the only deciding factor of the 21st century, Orban was hinting strongly that the first duty of any Hungarian government is the preservation of the Hungarian peoples, wherever they may live. Because some Jobbik members who may indeed be fascists speak this way, as do the Ukrainian Nazis who imagine the Cossacks of Rostov or Krasnodar oblasts don’t realize that they are Ukrainians, it’s easy to label such ideas ‘fascist’. But Hungary, as many observers of its demographics have pointed out, is a nation experiencing or facing severe graying and population decline.

Clearly when Orban says ‘competitive in this great world-race’ he means preserving the Hungarians as a people rather than seeing them slowly replaced by peoples from the Middle East [North Africa, the Levant and Turkish Kurdistan all seem primed for population explosions and lengthy unrest in the years to come- AK] or elsewhere during this century. Just in case there was any confusion about what Orban meant, his reference to the ‘white working class’ of Great Britain should make it clear: the purpose of a sovereign nation is the health and long-term well-being of the majority population of that nation, not globalist ‘values’ or economic growth divorced from human needs. While I am personally not a fan of Alexandr Dugin, one most acknowledge this is much closer to Duginism and Eurasianism than Orban’s old Atlanticist, pro-EU positions. Orban’s use of the phrase ‘non-liberal state’ is in fact, almost pure Duginism, perhaps taken straight from the pages of Dugin’s book The 4th Political Theory by an Orban speechwriter. In the book, Dugin contends that after three centuries liberalism dating to the acts of tolerance that ended Europe’s bloody 30 Years Wars and restored the British crown after Cromwell’s revolt, liberalism has exhausted itself. [You can watch English subtitles of Dugin summarizing his book in less than ten minutes, and describing how many European languages it has been translated into here:]

Orban Vows to Resist the Empire’s Colored Revolution and ‘NGO-istan’ Tactics

Consequently, what is happening today in Hungary can interpreted as an attempt of the respective political leadership to harmonize relationship between the interests and achievement of individuals – that needs to be acknowledged – with interests and achievements of the community, and the nation. Meaning, that Hungarian nation is not a simple sum of individuals, but a community that needs to be organized, strengthened and developed, and in this sense, the new state that we are building is an illiberal state, a non-liberal state. It does not deny foundational values of liberalism, as freedom, etc.. But it does not make this ideology a central element of state organization but applies a specific, national, particular approach in its stead.

Is Orban a Eurasianist?

Like Dugin, like Igor Strelkov, and like Vladimir Putin, Orban calls out a fifth column in his country. These are, of course, the same Rockefeller and Fortune 500 funded foundations, think tanks, and NGOs that cultivated Central European politicans like... former AEI employee and husband to the Washington Post’s Anne Applebaum Radek Sikorski. [] And former Czech Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus, who has called the EU the 4th Reich (German Continental economic dominance under Washington’s tutelage []) and compared Brussels bureaucrats to their Soviet predecessors []. And of course, the AEI and Johns Hopkins ‘educated’ Viktor Orban, who now defies the EU.

Whereas Sikorski was caught on tape bitterly telling a fellow Polish politician when he thought no one was listening that Poland has sexually serviced the US and received nothing in return; Orban has turned on his former handlers and now calls them out for what they are -- foreign agents of influence and globalist occupiers of his country:

Now, Hungarian NGO landscape shows a very particular image. Ideally a civil politician as opposed to professional is an individual who is organizing bottom-up, financially independent and the nature of his work is voluntary. If we look at civil organizations in Hungary, the one that appears before public, now debates around the Norwegian Fund brought this on the surface, then what I will see is that we have to deal with paid political activists here. And these political activists are moreover political activists paid by foreigners. Activists paid by definite political circles of interest. It is hard to imagine that these circles have a social agenda. It is more likely that they would like to exercise influence through this system of instruments on Hungarian public life. It is vital, therefore, that if we would like to reorganize our nation state instead of the liberal state, that we should make it clear, that these are not civilians coming against us, opposing us, but political activists attempting to promote foreign interests. Therefore it is very apt that a committee was being formed in the Hungarian parliament that deals with constant monitoring, recording and publishing foreign attempts to gain influence, so that all of us here, you as well will be aware of who are the characters behind the masks.
Since this piece has been exceptionally lengthy even by the Vineyard’s standards, I will leave the Saker and his readers with Orban’s conclusion for his compatriots who happen to live outside Hungary’s present borders -- in what is a clear message to Kiev, Bucharest and ultimately Washington that national identity won’t be crushed under EUro-globalism:

Now the only question that remains, honorable ladies and gentlemen, and it is a question that I am not entitled to answer, that in times like this, when anything could happen, should we be afraid, or should we instead be hopeful? Because the present order of the world is not exactly to our taste, that this future, although it is uncertain, it could even cause huge trouble, it also holds opportunities and developments for our Hungarian nation. So instead of seclusion, fear and withdrawal I recommend courage, prospective thinking, rational, but brave action to the Hungarian communities in the Carpathian basin [the old Rusyn lands - AK] but also throughout the world. As anything can happen, it can easily happen that our time will come. Thank you for your honorific attention.