The Saker blog now also in Russian!

ДОРОГИЕ РУССКОЯЗЫЧНЫЕ ДРУЗЬЯ!
Читайте блог Балобана по-русски щелкнув на эту ссылку:


http://www.vineyardsaker.ru/

The Saker Blog now also in French!

AMIS FRANCOPHONES!
Vous pouvez maintenant lire le blog du Saker en Français en cliquant sur ce lien:


http://www.vineyardsaker.fr/

The Saker Blog now also in German!

ALLE UNSERE DEUTSCHEN FREUNDE!
koennen jetzt den blog des Sakers auf Deutsch lesen - bitte hier anklicken:


http://www.vineyardsaker.de/

The Saker Blog now in Oceania

TO ALL THE SAKER FRIENDS IN OCEANIA!
you can now also visit the Oceania Vineyardsaker Blog by clicking on this link:


http://www.vineyardsaker.co.nz/

Friday, August 22, 2014

The significance of the Russian decision to move the humanitarian convoy into Novorussia

It appears that the Russians got tired of waiting.  I suggest that you all carefully parse the Statement of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs I posted earlier today.  This is an interesting document because besides an explanation of the Russian decision to move it, it is also, potentially, a legal defense or an unprecedented Russian decision: to overtly violate the Ukrainian sovereignty.  Let me explain.

First, the case of Crimea was also a "special case".  The Russian were legally present there and, in the Russian rationale, all the "Polite Armed Men in Green" did was to protect the local population to make it possible for the latter to freely express its will.  Only after that will was expressed did Russia agree to formally re-incorporate Crimea into Russia.  So from the legal Russian point of view, none of the Russian actions in Crimea included any form of  violation of Ukrainian sovereignty.  I know, most western analyst will not agree, but that is the official Russian stance.  And official stances are important because they form the basis for a legal argument.

Second, the aid which Russia has been sending to Novorussia has been exclusively covert.  Covert operations, no matter their magnitude, do not form the basis for a legal position.  The official position of Moscow has been that not only was there absolutely no military aid to Novorussia, but even when Ukie artillery shells landed inside Russia did the Kremlin authorize any retaliation, again in (official) deference to the Ukrainian national sovereignty.

This time, however, there is no doubt at all that the Russians did deliberately and officially chose to ignore Kiev and move in.  Now, in fact, in reality, this is clearly the logically, politically and morally right thing to do.  But in legal terms, this clearly a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty.  From a legal point of view, the Ukies had the right to keep the Russian convoy at the border for another 10'000 years if they wanted and Russia had no legal right to simply move in.  What apparently happened this morning is that the Ukie officials did not even bother showing up, so the Kremlin just said "forget it!" and ordered the trucks in.

Not only did the Russians move in, but they did that without the ICRC whose personnel refused to go because of the lack of security guarantees from Kiev. The Russian response to that lack of security guarantees was a) to order this unarmed convoy in and b) to clearly state in the official statement:

We are warning against any attempts to thwart this purely humanitarian mission which took a long time to prepare in conditions of complete transparency and cooperation with the Ukrainian side and the ICRC. Those who are ready to continue sacrificing human lives to their own ambitions and geopolitical designs and who are rudely trampling on the norms and principles of international humanitarian law will assume complete responsibility for the possible consequences of provocations against the humanitarian relief convoy.
Again, from a logical, political or moral point of view, this is rather self-obvious, but from a legal point of view this is a threat to use force ("complete responsibility for the possible consequences") inside the putatively sovereign territory of the Ukraine.

The US and their main agent in Kiev, Nalivaichenko, immediately and correctly understood the threat: not only did this convoy bring much needed humanitarian aid to Lugansk, it also provided a fantastic political and legal "cover" for future Russian actions inside Novorussia.  And by "actions" I don't necessarily mean military actions, although that is now clearly and officially possible.  I also mean legal actions such as recognizing Novorussia.  From their point of view, Obama, Poroshenko, Nalivaichenko are absolutely correct to be enraged, because I bet you that the timing, context and manner in which Russia moved into Novorussia will not result in further sanctions or political consequences.   Russia has now officially declared the Ukie national sovereignty as "over" and the EU will probably not do anything meaningful about it.

That, by itself, is a nightmare for Uncle Sam.

Furthermore, I expect the Russian to act with a great deal of restraint.  It would be stupid for them to say "okay, now that we violated the territorial integrity of the Ukraine and ignored its sovereignty we might as well bomb the junta forces and move our troops in".  I am quite confident that they will not do that.  Yet.  For the Russian side, the best thing to do now is to wait.  First, the convoy will really help.  Second, it will become a headache for the Ukies (bombing this convey would not look very good).  Third, this convoy will buy enough time for the situation to become far clearer.  What am I referring to here?

The Ukie plan has been to present some major "victory" for the Sunday the 24, when they plan a victory parade in Kiev to celebrate independence day (yup, the US-controlled and Nazi-administered "Banderastan" will celebrate its "independence"... this is both sad and hilarious).  Instead, what they have a long streak of *very* nasty defeats during the past 5-6 days or so.  By all accounts, the Ukies are getting butchered and, for the first time, even pushed back (if only on a tactical level).  That convoy in Luganks will add a stinging symbolical "f**k you!" to the junta in Kiev.  It will also exacerbate the tensions between the ruling clique in power, the Right Sector and Dmitri Iarosh and the growing protest movement in western Ukraine.

Bottom line: this is a risky move no doubt, probably brought about by the realization that with water running out in Luganks Putin had to act.  Still it is also an absolutely brilliant move which will create a massive headache for the US and its Nazi puppets in Kiev.

The Saker

PS: I heard yesterday evening that Holland has officially announced that it will not release the full info of the flight data and voice recorders of MH17.  Thus Holland has now become an official accomplice to the cover-up of this US false-flag operation and to the murder of the passengers of MH17. This is absolutely outrageous and disgusting I and sure hope that the Malaysian government will not allow this.  As for Kiev, it is also sitting on the recording of the communications between the Kiev ATC and MH17.  Finally, the USA has it all through its own signals intelligence capabilities.  So they all know and they are all covering up.  Under the circumstances, can anybody still seriously doubt "who done it"?

Russian Foreign Ministry Statement On The Start Of The Delivery Of Humanitarian Relief Aid To Southeastern Ukraine

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY STATEMENT ON THE START OF THE DELIVERY OF HUMANITARIAN RELIEF AID TO SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE

The endless delays hampering the initial deliveries of the Russian humanitarian relief aid to southeastern Ukraine have become intolerable.

A lorry convoy with many hundreds of tonnes of humanitarian relief aid, urgently needed by the people in these regions, has been standing idle for a week now on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Over this period, the Russian side has made unprecedented efforts in all areas and at all levels in order to complete the required formalities. We have met all conceivable and inconceivable demands of the Ukrainian side and have submitted to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) exhaustive lists of food, drinking water, medications, essential items and diesel generators due to be delivered to Lugansk, where they are urgently needed by women, children and the elderly. These people are experiencing the horrors of daily artillery attacks and air strikes that have resulted in an increasing number of killed and wounded and destroyed the entire vital infrastructure in the area. Time and again, we met requests to check and recheck the shipment route, to coordinate procedures for the shipment’s delivery, and have signed the required documents with the ICRC. We have provided all essential security guarantees and have ensured similar guarantees on the part of the self-defense forces. These guarantees apply to the Russian convoy as well as other humanitarian relief aid being sent to Lugansk by the Kiev authorities.

At the same time, Kiev has delayed granting its formal consent required by the ICRC for several days, while repeatedly inventing new pretexts and stepping up attacks on Lugansk and Donetsk that involve military aircraft and heavy-duty armored vehicles, targeting residential areas and other civilian facilities. Over the past few days, the Ukrainian side has been launching ballistic missiles, including the deadly Tochka-U missiles, ever more frequently.

On 21 August, the situation appeared to have been resolved when the Ukrainian authorities finally informed the ICRC of their readiness to start clearing humanitarian shipments for prompt delivery to Lugansk. The Ukrainian side officially confirmed its unconditional consent for the convoy to start moving during a phone conversation between the Foreign Affairs Ministers of Russia and Ukraine. On 20 August, customs clearance and border control procedures were launched at the Donetsk checkpoint. On 21 August, however, this process was stopped, with officials citing much more intensive bombardment of Lugansk. In other words, the Ukrainian authorities are bombing the destination and are using this as a pretext to stop the delivery of humanitarian relief aid.

It appears that Kiev has set out to complete its “cleansing” of Lugansk and Donetsk in time for the 24 August Independence Day celebrations. It seems increasingly credible that the incumbent Ukrainian leadership is deliberately delaying the delivery of the humanitarian relief aid until there is nobody left to deliver this aid to. Quite possibly, they hope to achieve this result prior to the planned 26 August meetings in Minsk.

Russia is outraged by the blatant external manipulation of the international experts involved in preparing this operation. An endless succession of contradictory and mutually exclusive signals and messages we have been receiving is a true indication of behind the scenes games for purposes that have nothing to do with accomplishing a set humanitarian objective. Those who are holding the reins and hampering efforts to save human lives, to mitigate the suffering of sick and wounded people neglect the basic principles of society. We have called on the UN Security Council to promptly declare a humanitarian armistice, but these proposals are being invariably blocked by those who pay lip service to universal human values. Last time, this happened on 20 August, when the United States and some Western members of the UNSC declined to issue a statement in support of a ceasefire during the delivery of humanitarian relief aid to Lugansk by Russian and Ukrainian convoys.

We hereby state once again: All the required security guarantees regarding the passage of the humanitarian convoy have been provided. The ICRC has officially recognised these guarantees. The delivery routes are known, and they have been checked by an ICRC mission. The documents have been drawn up. The shipments have long been ready for inspection by Ukrainian border guards and customs officers who have been waiting at the Donetsk checkpoint in the Rostov Region for a week now. The capitals that display heightened concern for the situation in southeastern Ukraine are well aware of this. The endless artificial demands and pretexts have become unconscionable.

It is no longer possible to tolerate this lawlessness, outright lies and inability to reach agreements. All pretexts for delaying the delivery of aid to people in the humanitarian disaster zone have been depleted. The Russian side has decided to act. Our humanitarian relief convoy is setting out towards Lugansk. Naturally, we are ready to allow ICRC officials to escort the convoy and to take part in distributing aid. We hope that representatives of the Russian Red Cross Society will also be able to take part in this mission.

We are warning against any attempts to thwart this purely humanitarian mission which took a long time to prepare in conditions of complete transparency and cooperation with the Ukrainian side and the ICRC. Those who are ready to continue sacrificing human lives to their own ambitions and geopolitical designs and who are rudely trampling on the norms and principles of international humanitarian law will assume complete responsibility for the possible consequences of provocations against the humanitarian relief convoy. (emphasis added by me - the Saker)

We are once again calling on the Ukrainian leadership, as well as the United States and the European Union, which are exerting their influence on Kiev, to promptly launch negotiations in southeastern Ukraine and start complying with the accords formalised in the 17 April 2014 Geneva Statement by Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the EU on stopping the use of force, mitigating the humanitarian situation and immediately launching nationwide dialogue that would involve all Ukrainian regions. 


source:  http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/8cbbd5bfe558c6e344257d3c003d4df0!OpenDocument

August 21 Iraq SITREP by Mindfriedo: American Hostage Crisis


NB: The term Salafi may refer to a Puritan Sunni (or rarely Shia) but in these SITREPs is being referred synonymously with Wahabi Takfiris.
The titles Farooq and Siddique were originally those of Ali ibn Abi Talib (as), but over the ages, for whatever reasons, have been associated with Omar ibn Khattab and Abu Bakr (the second and first Caliphs).
Similarly the term Salaf may have referred to a pious worshipper but, as is the norm now, the term Salafi Jihadism is associated with Wahabism. To avoid confusion, the term Salaf here does not refer to its “original” purpose/meaning.

Quote of the Day: Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif: If we agree to do something in Iraq, the other side of the negotiations should do something in return
Thought of the Day: Dirty, Dirty Politics

21st Aug: The Pentagon reveals that it carried out a air ground raid on Syrian territory controlled by Daash earlier in the year to try and rescue Western hostages but failed. The prisoners had been moved recently and the Special Forces had to withdraw empty handed.
21st Aug: The US confirms that heavy weaponry is on its way to Kurdish fighters in Iraq and that airstrikes on Daash positions will continue. Daash had earlier threatened to execute a second US hostage if bombings continue.
14 air raids are reported by the Pentagon on Daash positions and vehicles near Mosul Dam.
21st Aug: Security Services are attempting to identify the British national who appeared in the video and brutally executed James Foley in Iraq. Daash is believed to have used a British national for “dramatic” effect and as part of its PSYOPs.
21st Aug: UNICEF refers to the cases of kidnapping, rape and sexual abuse of women and children belonging to Iraqi Minorities by armed groups (Daash) as the worst the world has seen in this Century.
21st Aug: Jaber Mubarak Al-Hamad Al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti Prime Minister congratulates Haider Jawad Al Abadi and reaffirms Kuwait’s support for Iraq.
Kuwait was invaded by Saddam Hussain at the end of the Iran Iraq war over financial aid that Iraq had received from Kuwait during the war. Saddam was under the impression that it was a grant; Kuwait insisted it was a loan. Saddam regarded Kuwait to be a part of (probably correct) Iraq and part of his prize for having fought Persian Iran on behalf of his fellow Arabs (mostly every member of the GCC).
21st Aug: The Al Salam brigade of Moqtada al Sadr claims that it has advanced and regained control of three areas in northern Babil. Its Shia fighters have taken back al-Baherat , Qaderiya 1 and Qaderiya 2 areas after fighting Daash led rebels. The attempt on the part of the Al Salam brigade is to free the area of Jurf Al Sakhar north east of Karbala, Southern Iraq.
21st Aug: The Iraqi Security forces are preparing for another push in Tikrit to try and regain control of the Presidential Palace.
21st Aug: The Iraqi Army launches an assault on Mshahdh, north of Taji, north of Baghdad. Twenty four Daash fighters are reported killed in fighting that also resulted in the deaths of Faisal Saeed, Ali Asad Musleh, Mohammed Musleh, and Mohammed Jabbar; they are reported as being prominent in Daash.
21st Aug: The Kurds are now in control of most of Mosul outskirts. The push east by Daash may end up costing them Mosul.
14 Daash fighters have surrendered to Peshmerga forces in Bashiqah, north east of Mosul. Most of those who surrendered are believed to be locals that had been recently “conscripted” into Daash. The prisoners claimed that most of their former Daash leadership fled to Mosul once the bombing started.
21st Aug: A drunken UK citizen barges into the home of a family in the English Village neighborhood of Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan and is killed on the assumption that he is a “robber.”
This unfortunate misunderstanding may have to do with his heritage, as most British Colonial Enterprises were nothing short of highway robbery.
21st Aug: The capacity of the oil pipeline shipping oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey has been increased from 120000 barrels a day to 200000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian oil company DNO reaffirmed its commitment to continue its very profitable operations that have been in place for the last 10 years.
21st Aug: The Iraqi government is considering the role that former/current Baathist played in the current crisis. They are being seen as key in giving Daash logistic and political support in its takeover of most of Anbar and Nineveh.
21st Aug: Over 3000 foreign fighters are believed to be fighting for Daash in Iraq; most of them from Western Countries and over 400 from the UK alone. May God send them to their Paradise (Hell) soon!
21st Aug: The Kurds are being “advised” to be wary of Abadi who comes from the same Dawa party as Maliki and whose policies may be more or less the same.
Abadi had accused the Kurds in March of withholding 10 Billion USD in revenue from the Central Government.

Related:
21st Aug: France is now officially arming both sides. Hollande confirms that France did provide Syrian Rebels (Daash) with weapons a few months ago.
21st Aug: Daash launches an all out assault on the Tabqa Air Base of the Syrian Government. It is the last foothold of the Assad regime in the region.
Daash started the assault with the firing of rockets and tank shells at the air base.
21st Aug: Turkish NGOs in Armenia are asking for permission at the Blue Mosque of Yerevan in the Armenian Capital. They argue that Armenians are free to practice their faith in Turkey. The move is bound to cause trouble.
21st Aug: Off with his head: The petrified monarchies of the Gulf States are tightening their belts to fight blow back from the monster they helped create. The UAE has just toughened its anti terrorism laws (monarchy protection laws): The law stipulates that those found guilty of attacking or threatening the President, the Vice-President or any of the Rulers of the Emirates and their family members, and those conspiring against the state and government will face capital punishment.
21st Aug: Saudis account for just 68% of the total population of Saudi Arabia. The rest are migrants earning a living.
21st Aug: 260 Iraqi Christians are taking shelter in Churches in Jordan. Ironically or tragically in a state suspected of having trained the Daash rebels that persecuted the Christian Community of Iraq and Syria.
21st Aug: Saving Face, or what’s left of it: Qatar reacts to the statement made by the German Minister and calls the beheading of Foley as a “crime” against Islamic principles.
21st Aug: An Arab Israeli national has been arrested by the Lebanese military on suspicion of being an Israeli spy. The man cut through a barbed wire fence to enter Southern Lebanon.

Further Reading:
Questions why Sunni Iraqis do not flee Daash:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/middle-east-crisis-we-know-all-too-much-about-the-cruelty-of-isis--but-all-too-little-about-who-they-are-9681873.html

A British Salafi/Wahabi/Takfiri Citizen Executed Foley:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/20/james-foley-s-executioner-was-one-of-many-british-jihadis-in-isis.html

British fighters had been carrying out "horrific acts" like beheadings, torture and executions for a year and a half
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/20/isis-militant-islamic-state-james-foley-guards-british
Bhadrakumar on America’s return to the war on terror:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/08/21/obama-reopens-war-on-terror/

Understanding the Yazidis, a faith on the brink of extinction:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/21/fighting-back-with-faith-inside-the-yazidis-iraqi-temple.html

The BBC continuing with its bullshit propaganda:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28867370

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Quick note to the readers & open thread

Dear friends,

I will spend most of the day tomorrow on the road.  God willing, I will be back tomorrow evening.  In the meantime, please feel free to discuss anything except the topic of global warming which (by popular demand) I am banning just because it would really burden this blog.  I will try to moderate the comments as often as possible from my van.

Also, one reader told me that the stupid CAPTCHAs now feature some kind of advertisement.  If so, sorry about that.  I ask for your patience just a little longer, the new server in Iceland should be ready soon, at which point I will move the entire blog.

Have a great day and "see you" tomorrow evening,

The Saker

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Ukraine Crisis: Donbass. Chronicle of Genocide

The beginning of a realization in the US elites?

John Mearsheimer just published a piece in Foreign Affairs entitled "Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault - The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin".  It is a typical "establishment" piece in style and assumptions - along with some rather misleading statements about the war in Georgia - but I still recommend that you read it.  Here is the interesting excerpt:
There is a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, however -- although it would require the West to think about the country in a fundamentally new way. The United States and its allies should abandon their plan to westernize Ukraine and instead aim to make it a neutral buffer between NATO and Russia, akin to Austria’s position during the Cold War. Western leaders should acknowledge that Ukraine matters so much to Putin that they cannot support an anti-Russian regime there. This would not mean that a future Ukrainian government would have to be pro-Russian or anti-NATO. On the contrary, the goal should be a sovereign Ukraine that falls in neither the Russian nor the Western camp.

To achieve this end, the United States and its allies should publicly rule out NATO’s expansion into both Georgia and Ukraine. The West should also help fashion an economic rescue plan for Ukraine funded jointly by the EU, the International Monetary Fund, Russia, and the United States -- a proposal that Moscow should welcome, given its interest in having a prosperous and stable Ukraine on its western flank. And the West should considerably limit its social-engineering efforts inside Ukraine. It is time to put an end to Western support for another Orange Revolution. Nevertheless, U.S. and European leaders should encourage Ukraine to respect minority rights, especially the language rights of its Russian speakers.

Some may argue that changing policy toward Ukraine at this late date would seriously damage U.S. credibility around the world. There would undoubtedly be certain costs, but the costs of continuing a misguided strategy would be much greater. Furthermore, other countries are likely to respect a state that learns from its mistakes and ultimately devises a policy that deals effectively with the problem at hand. That option is clearly open to the United States.
Now, I have no illusion about Mearsheimer, he is spokesman for what I call the "old Anglo guard", the folks who have been gradually, if partially, displaced by the Neocons, who then got behind Obama, only to be re-displaced when the Neocons skillfully took Obama under their control.  In other words, Mearsheimer only speaks for the defeated and resentful part of the establishment, but a still powerful and influential one.  His article could also serve as a kind of a "feeler" with the rest of the US "deep state" to see what reactions it triggers.  

What do you think - does the publication of this article mean that some kind of the beginning of a realization that the US needs to revise it's Ukrainian policy?

What do you think?

The Saker

August 20th Iraq SITREP by Mindfriedo: Resilient Daash

Quote of the Day, German Development Minister Gerd Muller: Who is financing these forces? I think it is Qatar
Thought of the day: Murder will out

19th Aug: The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights states that Daash has more than 50000 fighters in Syria and another 30000 in Iraq. It has recruited 6000 fighters in the last month alone and of these 1000 are foreign fighters.
Daash's strength in Syria is expected to grow as more and more fighters from rival rebel groups join its ranks and it's supporters abroad make it to the shores of its crazy Caliphate.
20th Aug: Iraqi Shia Marja from Kadhmain, Hussein Ismail al-Sadr replies to queries by Shia believers that the protection of the lives, property and well being of the Yazidis is a humanitarian and religious obligation irrespective of the fact that they are not people of the book. He stated that the doors of Kadhmiya are open to those displaced and calls the persecution by Daash as unIslamic.
20th Aug: The Iraqi army is drawing up plans to dislodge Daash fighters from their siege of Amerli in Salah Al Din province. The plan involves opening up of a road link to Amerli by bombing Daash positions with airstrikes. Daash has laid siege for Amerli after it was unable to invade and occupy the area.
20th Aug: Peshmerga advances towards Rabia, 95 km north west of Mosul, has led to an exodus of Sunni Arab families that are heading towards the Syrian border. A similar exodus took place when the Peshmergas approached Wana, 25 km north west of Mosul. The Sunni Arab refugees are heading toward the west or Daash held territory as opposed to towards Kurdistan in anticipation of heavy fighting that is expected.
20th Aug: Outgoing Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki instructs The officials responsible to make sure that displaced people from Amerli are supplied with food rations, refugee accommodation, medical supplies and other compensation. Those that need medical treatment abroad can have their travel facilitated.
20th Aug: Ibrahim Mohammed, a leader within the Democratic Party of Kurdistan (KDP) in Kirkuk is assassinated at his residence by unidentified gunmen.
20th Aug: 25000 Iraqis are travelling to Saudi Arabia for Hajj/pilgrimage.
20th Aug: After brutally executing Foley, Daash warns Obama that the fate of another American Stephen Gul Sutlov, depends on Obama's future course of action.
Cali Foley, sister of slain journalist asks for people to respect their families' privacy in their hour of grief. YouTube remove the video of the scribes brutal execution.
20th Aug: Kurdish Parliamentarians return to their government posts in Baghdad. The Kurds had withdrawn on the 8th of August following comments made by Nouri Al Maliki that the Kurds were harbouring Daash. Kurdish politician Hoshiyar Zabari has also returned as Foreign Minister after Maliki called on all sides to help the new administration.
20th Aug: The Iraqi Air Force carries out air strikes on Daash positions in Anbar, Salah Id Din, and Babil provinces. 35 Daash fighters are reported killed and 11 vehicles destroyed.

Related:
20th Aug: Armed Houthi rebels enter Sanaa and set up protest camps. Armed Houthi rebels have set up checkpoints around their camps and are demanding that the government of President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi resign over increasing prices, in particular those of fuel.

Short Analysis: What has been the outcome of Daash's advance for Iraq's different sects and players?
Daash's advance has primarily resulted in the ethnic cleansing/division of Iraq. Iraq now resembles Baghdad after its sectarian violence of 2006. The Shias in the north can never return and will be resettled in the South. The Kurds will also head to their enclave and almost all Sunni Iraqis will leave areas where Shias and Kurds dominate.

The return of communities is next to impossible. There is no force that can guarantee the protection of Iraq's ethnic groups in places where they are either a minority or surrounded by other communities.

The Kurds have been the clear winners so far. Politically, militarily, and territorially. They can now bargain for confessions like never before. They will likely gain economic autonomy and will continue to pump oil through Turkey. Their armed forces will grow stronger and their relations with the rest of the world will improve at the cost of Iraq. Their move away from their demand of independence has been a calculated one. They gain more by staying than by leaving. They can always leave when Iraq is collapsing or disintegrating in the future; a very real and foreseeable outcome now that the country is segregated. And they can build their strength by then.

The Shia militias have gained/will gain power in the south like never before and through them Iran's influence will grow. The Iraqi state owes its survival to militias and volunteers that answered Sistani's general call to arms. Most militia fighters will join different branches of the Iraqi Armed forces and will become a state within a state. The recent dependence of the Iraqi state on the Shia militias will make it even harder for any measures to be taken to curtail their growing power. An exception has been Moqtada Sadr's militia that has lost ground because of its aversion to sectarian violence.
The power of the militias will be a contentious issue and Sunni Arab politicians will press on the next government to act against sectarian forces. And this will probably be one of the reasons why any future government will dither and fall or at least stop functioning effectively.

The Sunni Arabs will now start to fight Daash in their territory. If they leave the fight for the Iraqi government, most of Anbar will resemble most of Syria. The invasive Shia Iraqi Army will not have affinity for local architecture and will not try to fight door to door. They will prefer bombing it all and protecting themselves. Also for most Sunnis the dilemma of acting against Daash that claims to be championing their interests will be similar to the dilemma of the Iraqi government if it had to fight Shia militias. Their future for now seems bleak. They don't face suicide bombings or car bombs, but they do face air strikes and artillery in the near future.

The absolute losers so far have been the minorities that have no internal or immediate strength/backing: the Christians and the Yazidis and the Shabaqs. Most of these sects will either now abandon Iraq or live on the margins of the Kurdish state.

The Peshmergas whose name translates to those that rush towards death/face death/stay in front of death or any other mythical characteristic abandoned their positions in Sinjar and fled the onslaught of Daash leaving the locals to fend/face death for themselves. These locals had asked to leave but the Peshmergas, comfortable in the assumption that Daash was fighting Baghdad, had promised to fight and protect them. A betrayal less dastardly than the US betrayal of both the Shias and the Kurds during the first Gulf War because America's betrayal was calculated while that of the Kurds was out of self preservation.

The simple reason why the Shias fight better in the south and the Kurds better in the north against Daash is because they belong there. The Iraqi Shia army had no real motivation to stay and fight in Mosul and compared to the Kurds, they were completely demoralised by the corruption of their higher ups. The Kurds on the other hand were willing to die for their homeland. Sinjar was not their homeland.

Daash has also achieved something unique. It has brought out the most vicious aspects of Saudis/Qatari/UAE brand of Islam and forced even these countries to introspect. It has distinguished for most intelligent Muslims the big line dividing Shia Islam and Sunni Islam, the thin one dividing Orthodox Sunni Islam and Salafism (it is not that the difference is minor, but the shifting from one belief system to the other has been an easy one for most Sunnis; for instance it is easier for a Sunni to change his views to that of a Salafi than for him to even consider the Jafari school of thought) and the blurred thin line between Wahabbism and Takfir.

We cannot let MH17 be forgotten - Please help us!

Dear friends,

Those who organized the MH17 false flag have now clearly given the instruction to their propaganda machine (aka MSM) to forget about this tragedy and to pretend like it never happened.  Sure, there are a few courageous sources, such as the World Socialist Web Site, which do ask the right question "Why have the media and Obama administration gone silent on MH17?", but even most of the "alternative" media has really turned the page and forgotten about MH17.

We cannot allow this.

The Russian Team and the website Polismi in Russia have jointly translated the full detailed expert analysis of the MH17 downing into Russian and they are now asking for our - *your* - help in disseminating it in the Russian media worldwide and with all our - *your* - Russian-speaking friends, relatives and colleagues.   Here is their appeal:
Дорогие друзья,

Мы предлагаем вашему вниманию экспертный анализ крушения рейса МН17 Малазийской авиакомпании, который был впервые опубликован на сайте "The Vineyard of the Saker". Команда переводчиков русской версии этого сайта в сотрудничестве с командой сайта http://polismi.ru/o-proekte.html сделали перевод этого важного документа.

Любые упоминания о расследовании сбитого авиалайнера исчезли со страниц и эфиров Западных СМИ. Он выполнил свою трагическую роль. Как сказал Шиллер в свой знаменитой пьесе: «Мавр сделал свое дело, мавр должен уйти». 298 человек одним росчерком пера были принесены в жертву хладнокровному и расчётливому плану по провокации России. Этот план не удался, но его организаторы продолжают, как ни в чём не бывало, оркестрировать свой гнусный и подлый террор. И не зря своим орудием они выбрали тех, у кого нет никаких зачатков морали, совести, человечности. Эти нелюди сегодня правят Украиной. Они - вампиры, высасывающие не только её живую кровь, но и её душу, чувства и сознание. Что для них какой-то самолёт? У их заморских хозяев в заложниках весь мир. И только родные, близкие и друзья погибших будут до конца дней оплакивать боль своих потерь.

Но те из нас, кто не согласен жить в информационной матрице, делают всё возможное, чтобы прорвать эту блокаду ненависти и лжи. Сегодня мы хотим распространить этот анализ, написанный экспертом по расследованию аварий, как можно большему количеству русскоговорящих людей, особенно на Украине. Возможно, мы никогда не узнаем всей правды об этой трагедии. К сожалению, это уже было не раз. Но тем не менее, этот документ приводит веские и взвешенные аргументы думающим и критически мыслящим людям. Как капля воды точит камень, так и каждая крупинка правды помогает пробивать толстую броню Зла.

Русская команда "Bиноградника Балобана"
The full document in Russian is available here:

http://www.vineyardsaker.ru/?p=749

I ask you to do everything you can to share this document as widely as possible.   One of the most disgusting and outrageous things about this false flag massacre is that most of our elites know what truly happened, but that they apparently have all agreed to cover it up, each one for their own reasons.  We cannot allow that to happen and we have to continue to demand answers and full access to all the data, including the recordings of the conversations between MH17 and the Kiev ATC, all the flight data recorders, and all the signal and radar data held by Russia, the USA, NATO, and the junta in Kiev.

Please join us in demanding that the full truth be told about the murder of the people of MH17.

Send the link above, along with this appeal, to all your Russian speaking friends, post it on your blogs, websites, Twitter and Facebook pages, share it on mailing lists, send it to your local Russian newspaper or radio station, etc.   We need maximal exposure and visibility to force those in power to react.

Many thanks,

The Saker

PS: a new, updated, version of the video analysis made by John Martin about MH17 which I had posted here is now available here: http://youtu.be/czqmeMhWyFo make sure to also check it out!

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

August 16-17-18-19 Iraq SITREP by Mindfriedo: The Battle for Mosul Dam

A Very heartfelt thank you for the Saker who allows for these SITREPs to be posted, and for him always fighting the good fight. May God continue to guide him. I will try to post the SITREPs more frequently.

16th Aug: Kurdish authorities plan to rearm their forces with modern and heavy equipment.
16th Aug: Mohammad Ali al-Hakim, Iraq’s Foreign Minister to the UN asks the nations of the world to collectively designate Daash as a terrorist entity and collectively work against it.
16th Aug: American planes begin softening Daash targets around Mosul Dam for what will be a joint Iraqi-Peshmerga land assault to try and recapture the Dam from Daash. Daash is believed to have not bombed the dam and released its waters as it would have flooded areas controlled by it.
The dam is in need of constant maintenance and is expected to have been damaged severely during the short time that Daash has held it.
16th Aug: Walter Steinmeier, the German Foreign Minister arrives in Baghdad to coordinate delivery of humanitarian aid. He is expected to visit Iraqi Kurdistan as well.
16th Aug: Three members believed to belong to Shia militias are killed and 10 injured in a road side bombing in the south of Samarra.
16th Aug: The Iraqi Air force bombs of convoy of 30 vehicles belonging to Daash/rebel fighters near Mosul Dam
16th Aug: Iraqi Air strikes target a meeting of Daash rebels in qaim, western Anbar and reportedly kill the following senior Daash leaders: Abu Mohammed al-Shami, Abu Fatima Moroccan, Sami Mahlawi , Abu Anas al-Samarrai, Omar al-Shishani , Ahmed Awad and Abu Mohammed al-Adnani
Another air strike Jurk al-Sakher, north of Babil kills 22 Daash rebels including seven foreign fighters
16th Aug: Malik al-Arak, a leader within Daash is killed in a targeted rocket attack carried out by the Iraqi Security forces in Latifiya, Southern Baghdad. Two of his fellow Daash terrorists were also killed.
17th Aug: Peshmerga forces continue their adavce towards Mosul Dam aided by American air power. Kurdish forces are engaged in Baqofa and Babera areas and progressing towards progressing towards Tilkaif , al-Qwesat and Wank.
The Peshmergas have also received advanced weapons from Western Countries to fight Daash. Peshmerga forces are also preparing to assault the Sinjar region and regain terrertory they had earlier fled from.
17th Aug: CENTCOM announces that it has carried out 9 air strikes near Mosul Dam and near Erbil that “destroyed or damaged four armored personnel carriers , seven armored vehicles , Humvee and an armored vehicle.” The air strikes were carried out by manned aircraft and drones.
17th Aug: A major assault on Dhuluiya town, Salah id Din, by Daash fighters is foiled by the local police force and pro government/anti Daash tribal fighters. Three policemen are injured and 12 Daash fighters are reported killed.
17th Aug: Daash fighters are reportedly regrouping in Tikrit and are digging in, in anticipation of an Iraqi army assault
17th Aug: The National Alliance and its Prime Ministerial Candidate name a negotiating committee that will meet with other political blocs and speed up government formation. The State of the Law Coalition reiterates that Haider Al Abadi will negotiate government formation with other blocs and will consider demands that are within Iraq’s constitution and reject/not consider demands that go against the constitution.
17th Aug: The five main Kurdish political parties form a joint negotiating team to discuss government formation in Baghdad.
17th Aug: Kisho Amo Selo, a survivor from the Kojo massacre/genocide states that after a ten day siege where they were expected to convert to Islam Daash entered the town and killed hundreds of young Yazidi men and boys and took 500 women and girls to Tal Afar.
17th Aug: Ghayeb Sarhan Sahlab, a leader within Daash, is killed in air strikes in Salah al Din Province.
17th Aug: The Iraqi Security Forces are claiming to have retaken a refinery in Haditha with the help of the Air Force.
17th Aug: Daash’s leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi is targeted in a US drone strike on the Iraqi Syrian border on his way to Raqqa but survives.
18th Aug: Kurdish politicians are referring to the appointment of Haider Al Abadi as the Prime Minister designate as a golden opportunity for Iraq. All three ethnic groups can now sit down together and
18th Aug: In an unexpected manner, Daash releases 300 Yazidi refugees from Sinjar and allows them to head to mount Sinjar.
18th Aug: Daash executes Abu Jafar Naqshbandi, a former army officer and a leader within the “Naqshabandi Order”, along with his brother in Jalawla for refusing to follow Daash orders.
18th Aug: Despite a near total collapse of resistance, Peshmerga forces are advancing cautiously towards Tilkaif city south of Mosul Dam. Those that rush towards death are wary of car bombs and booby traps.
19th Aug: American air power breaks the back of Daash near Mosul Dam, paving the way for Peshmerga forces to take over the complex. Daash had earlier brought in a Libyan national engineer to manage the Dam. Daash decided to withdraw its forces that were being hit by accurate and sustained bombardment. However, Daash has booby trapped and left traps for advancing Peshmerga forces in houses, government buildings, and even bodies of dead Daash fighters.
The Daash forces began to crumble on the 17th of August. They more or less abandoned the areas of Tilkaif, Khorsapad, Bashiqa and Bartalah and fled to Mosul city.
19th Aug: The UN has decided to deliver relief supplies to half a million Iraqi refugees. The aid will include tents, food and water, and basic medication. Most aid will be shipped in through Turkey and Jordan; the same directions that Daash entered from.
19th Aug: The south of Iraq is floating in oil. Russia’s Lukoil has shipped an oil tanker from the West Qurna 2 oil field that is estimated to hold 13 billion barrels of oil. The Greedy Empire will not let the Shia South rest or prosper.
19th Aug: The Iraqi army has cleansed two areas north of Baghdad: al-Thaar and Tal Tasa of Daash presence.
19th Aug: Shia Militias a Long way to go: The Iraqi Army launches an assault on Tikrit early this morning. The army was being backed by Shia militias/volunteer fighters and local tribal fighters. Fierce resistance by Daash forces the army to withdraw after suffering one fatality and 5 injured. The army lost its positions in the south of Tikrit and had to withdraw further south. A lack of effective air cover is being cited as one of the reasons of the failed assault.
The Iraqi army is claiming that the leaders within Daash have now fled Tikrit. Daash forces have withdrawn from Al Alam district east of Tikrit. Daash has also thoroughly mined and booby trapped (by planting IEDs along the main roads in Tikrit) most of the city’s main roads.
19th Aug: Abu Mohammed al- Adnani, spokesperson for Daash and Saeed Arif of the Al Nusra front are put on the US sanctions list; a farcical list that includes Iranians and Russians.
Meanwhile, the United States has confirmed that Daash is using American armored personnel carriers that are installed with Israeli made modifications. The vehicles that are designed to survive the blast from IEDs and mines and sustain assaults from small arms fire are being used by Daash to fight the Kurds and other rebel groups in Syria. Daash is also using American made artillery.
Obama has asked the Iraqis to form a unity government and not grow complacent now that the US is bombing Daash fighters. The US has carried out 68 air strikes since the 8th of August primarily aimed at helping the Kurds in the north.
19th Aug: Wasit in the south of Iraq has received 21000 refugees from Mosul. Most are believed to be Shia.
19th Aug: All love for the Kurds: Sweden issues a statement that it backs Iraqi Kurdistan in its fight against terrorism and its support of refugees. Massoud Barzani welcomes Sweden’s stance and stresses that the Kurds need better and more weapons to fight “terrorism.”
19th Aug: The UK showers its affections: Stewart Rory, the head of the defense committee of the British Parliament meets with Massoud Barzani and conveys the greetings of David Cameroon.
19th Aug: Ibrahim al-Jaafari of the Shia national Alliance meets with Saleh al-Mutlaq of the Sunni al-Arabiya party meet to discuss government formation and the status of refugees in Iraq.
19th Aug: Three flags belonging to Daash are found hanging on poles and lamp posts in Dhi Qar district, south east of Najaf.
19th Aug: Government claims for the day:
33 Daash fighters are killed in airstrikes in Babil
22 Daash fighters are killed in an artillery strike by the Iraqi Army on their positions in Fallujah
19th Aug: US claims for the day:
17 Daash fighters are killed in airstrikes north of Mosul

Related:
18th Aug: A video has emerged showing a Japanese man being held by Daash terrorists in Syria and him being beaten up by his captors. May God protect him.
19th Aug: Daash commander Abu Abdullah al-Iraqi is killed by the Syrian army in Qalamoun. He is believed to be responsible for several car bomb and suicide attacks in Lebanon.
The Daily Star is reporting that it was the Hezbollah that carried out a sophisticated assassination of the man responsible for many attacks against Lebanon’s Shia areas:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Aug-20/267790-hezbollah-kills-jihadist-who-trained-suicide-bombers.ashx#axzz3AsXnxtq9
19th Aug: Containing blowback: Saudi Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh, blind since age 18, calls Al Qaida and Daash as Enemies No 1 of Islam.
19th Aug: Jebran Bassil, the Lebanese Foreign Minister states that Iraqi refugees are not welcome in Lebanon and that they should remain in Iraq
19th Aug: Daash releases a live video of it executing US journalist James Foley. May God Curse the oppressors (Daash).
Daash has released a video that threatens Americas everywhere for attacking it in Iraq.

Further Reading:
The Un-Islamic teachings of Daash:
“let the patients die, it is not important, what matters is your veil.” http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/isis-militants-threaten-mosul%E2%80%99s-female-doctors

Blog news: The Vineyard extends to Oceania!

Dear friends,

It is with all the pride of a proud father looking a a new baby that I am happy to officially announce the creation of the Vineyard Saker in Oceania

The folks who launched this new franchise of our community had been working with the various Saker Language Teams for a while already and I can say with great confidence that their work is nothing short of stellar.  Yet, there is something different in this Team, it is not really a Language Team as it is a Geographical Area Team.  Why?  Here is how they explain it in the "About" page of their blog:
The Oceania Saker idea grew out of discussions amongst the volunteer teams working with The Saker. The idea is to give the English team the same degree of editorial independence that the French,German and Russian teams enjoy. The obvious observation is that both The Saker and The Oceania Saker will publish in English but will be quite different.
Oceania sees itself as the first frontier where the global policies of neoliberalism hit home hard. Climate change,the rising sea levels and destructive uncontrolled capitalism has been the norm for a while now. While “bad” news, about what our policies as a collective human species do,might not have reached a central European town, they are quite evident in small Islands across the Pacific. The population has been dumbed down,abused,robbed and down right denied a voice in its affairs. We seem to swallow,without question or critique, the policies and “culture” of the AngloZionist Empire. As an example, the rich green fertile paradise of New Zealand has child poverty of 25%! 
While children are being murdered in Ukraine and Palestine, they talk about the next Hollywood blockbuster on morning radio. While Fascism is on the rise across Europe and rabid russophobia the norm, we do not seem to question it but instead join the choir. The events in Ukraine are especially a cruel joke on the intelligence of anyone whose grandparents fought Nazis in WWII. The descendants of Nazi collaborators are now being hailed as elected democratic politicians. This is lunacy. 
The Pacific nations have had a rich history of being friends of the earth, we have for thousands of years lived in harmony with our environment. It is this destruction of the harmony and beauty of our lands that has awaken many to the realities of destructive neoliberalism. We see our fate being decided on the world stage in this continuing struggle between the US and the sane world. 
The Oceania Saker team will continue to publish in the same spirit and will try its best to give various perspectives which represent the diverse nature of Oceania. We plan to cover a wide range of topics from social issues, to economic issues to political issues right across the globe.
I would only add that to have a one-person-blog like the "original" Saker fully monopolize a language spread all over the world would have been illogical wrong. Furthermore, Oceania is far enough and unique enough to deserve its own voice.  Last, but mos definitely not least, I know that I have *a lot* of readers from Oceania who often email me, send me articles, help with donations and participate in the comments and I really wanted them to have "their own" closer-to-home "vineyard".  I encourage them all to contact the wonderful Team at the Oceania Saker either to just say "hi" or offer their help, or both.

And to the Oceania Saker Team - thanks a lot guys, you really rock!

Kind regards and many thanks,

The Saker

Interview with Sergei Glaziev (MUST SEE!)

Thanks to the superb work of the Russian Team, it is my huge pleasure to present you with one of the most interesting interviews about the war in the Ukraine and the global struggle for the future of the planet and the views of one of the best informed men in Russia: Sergei Glaziev.

Glaziev is an advisor to President Putin and a close friend.  I personally believe that the western media is either wrong or deliberately lying when then say that Dugin is Putin's ideological mentor. I am not sure that Putin has - or needs - any kind of mentor, but over the years I have found that Glaziev seems to say out loud what Putin does not, but seems to be acting on.

Glaziev, who was born in the Ukraine and who is an economic himself, has a superb understanding of the behind-the-scenes power plays in the Ukraine and in Russia.  This man really *knows* what is going on.  Furthermore, he is one of the leading "Eurasian Sovereignists" and he is therefore absolutely hated by the pro-US circles in Russia.  He is equally hated in the USA who put him on their recent sanctions list for no other reason then the fact that they don't like what he has to say.

I urge everybody to listen to this 15min interview which is one of the most interesting ones I have ever had the pleasure to post here.

Enjoy!

The Saker

(please turn on the subtitles by pressing on the 'cc' button)

Jacob Cohen "Documenterview": the Sayanim, Dieudonné and the French dissident movement

I have been contacted today by the producers of a most interesting and unique documentary entitled Jacob Cohen "Documenterview" who informed me that their video was now available on YouTube in a seven-part series you can see here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzHtFW-mC6vGh07g8RK7sUITTYsQYBlN0

When I asked them to make the video available in one file, they told me that they would do that, but that in the meantime I could use a special embed code which makes all the seven series available in one window.  Since I do not want to wait, this is what I will do today, but I will let you know when the full documentary becomes available in one file.

Jacob Cohen is an extremely interesting person.  This French Jew, born in Morocco, is the author of several very interesting books.  This ex-Freemason and ex-Zionist, Cohen is the first person to write a full book dedicated to the topic of the voluntary Jewish collaborators of Israel known as "Sayan" (plural: "Sayanim"): Le Printemps des Sayanim which, needless to say, is not available in English.  And since the English language Wikipedia does not offer any info about Cohen, the best I can do is to give you a link to a Google-translation of his French Wikipedia entry.  Here is a link to his blog (in French): http://jacobdemeknes.blogspot.com/

This documentary also discusses the "Dieudonné" phenomenon and the general problem of the struggle of the French people against the Zionist-controlled nomenklatura.  At a time when Berhard-Henri Levi travels to Kiev to declare his full support for the Nazi junta in power, it is very timely to get an insight into what is really happening in France as told by a extremely well-informed ex-insider.

The full series is long (4,5 hours) but I nevertheless highly recommend it to everybody.

The Saker

PS: for my previous articles about Dieudonné, Soral and the French anti-Zionist dissident movement please see here:

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2009/05/israel-lobby-commits-maje-blunder-in.html
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2009/06/dieudonnes-anti-zionist-campaign-in.html
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2013/11/is-new-revolution-quietly-brewing-in.html
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/01/state-repression-in-france-only-makes.html
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/01/quenelle-warfare-in-france-report-from.html


What is "Banderastan"?

I have coined the word "Banderastan" to refer to the rump-Ukraine currently controlled by the Nazi junta in Kiev.  The term, of course, is a reference to the Ukie "hero" Stepan Bandera combined with the Persian suffix "stan" which means "land of".  Of course, in reality, rump-Ukraine (that is the Ukraine as it was between 1991 and 2014 minus Crimea and minus the Donbass) is not controlled by the junta and its correct designation should really be "US/NATO occupied Ukraine".  But by calling it "Banderastan" I also refer to the uniquely Ukrainian ideological madness which gravitates around the cult of Stepan Bandera and the ideology of hate and self-worship which it conveys.  I have written enough about this rabid form of nationalism before, so today I want to illustrate less noticed aspect of this ideology: its sheer psychopathology.

Check out the following video.  It was jointly produced by the Creative agency Adventa LOWE, ADV Group Ukraine and the production studio LimeLite for the 23rd celebraton of the Ukraine's Independence Day.  The message at the end simply says "The Ukraine is hardened to pain".  And this is supposed to be a patriotic, inspiring, clip.  This is how the creators explained their goals:
The goal of the team is to encourage the (Ukrainian) people and show their love for their country. Because over the past 10 months, the Ukraine has experienced so much, that would be enough for ten years and ten states. Therefore, the authors would like to honor a difficult path that the country is facing today, and leave an optimistic message for all Ukrainians.
Please note that the design, the pattern, which you see the person shown in the movie stitching on himself is a typical Ukrainian decorative pattern usually seen on a traditional Ukrainian shirt called a vyshivanka. Now see the video for yourself:


The first scary thing in this video is that the pain is clearly and unambiguously self-inflicted.  Second, that this pain is clearly an integral part of the aesthetic appeal of the clip along with the music and the trance-like dance.  Far from showing it as something disgusting (like self-mutilation is), this clip glorifies as beautiful and noble self-inflicted pain.  Frankly, in a happy and hedonistic society which is bored out of its mind and seeks some extreme emotions form piercing, this would really be no big deal.  But in a country torn apart by a vicious and bloody civil war, this king of glorification of pain as some kind of part of the national ethos is scary.

And make no mistake.  Behind all the agencies which produced the clip stand the regime.  This is quite easy to show.  The actor in the clip, Mikhail Gavrilyuk, is well-known for his participation in junta-backed disinformation campaigns and this clip is the junta's idea of something like a "patriotic public service announcement".  Scary, scary shit...

No wonder the folks of Novorussia want absolutely nothing to do with these freaks and their Banderastani ideology.  Can you imagine what any mentally sane person would feel when these freaks show up in their village and declare that henceforth they are the "authorities"?

I would most definitely grab my AK and also join the Resistance.

The Saker

The real State of the Ukrainian Army in the ATO (with English subtitles)

Two videos which help me fight my disgust with mankind

I will honestly tell you that I often feel a sense of total despair and disgust with my fellow human whose behavior often makes me forget how beautiful humans can also be.  Tonight, I want to share with you two videos which, besides their obvious political message, simply reminded me that humans are also beautiful and that they carry inside themselves an "inner dignity" which gives them the courage and resolve to oppose evil regardless of their chances to prevail.  The following two videos show very different people, but in them both I see a reason not to despair.  I hope that you will see it too.

As David Rovics always says - we are everywhere!

Kind regards,

The Saker


Monday, August 18, 2014

August 18th News from Novorussia from the ANNA-News agency + commentary


Commentary:

So the Ukies have deliberately done in Lugansk what they have already done in Slaviansk just before the assault: they destroyed the city's water supply. In the meantime, other Ukie forces have used MLRS systems to bomb and destroy a column of refugees fleeing from the combat area.

It is crucial to understand that these are not "mistakes".

In reality, this is typical US/NATO doctrine. Most of you probably remember the threat of Secretary Baker made to Tarek Aziz in 1991 "We will destroy your country and bring it back to the stone age.” For a while, Uncle Sam tried to sell this theory as "shock and awe", but the real description of it would, of course, be "target and terrorize the civilian population". Nothing new here. This is what the US military has been doing most of its history, for the Indian wars to Libya and Syria in our times. But the best example of this was the terror war against Yugoslavia in support of the KLA in Kosovo. There, the USAF and NATO totally failed at even marginally degrading the Serbian Army Corps in Kosovo so they turned to a strategic terror campaign against the people of Serbian and Montenegro. This is also what Israel does every time Hezbollah defeats it (which is every time the two fight).

In the Ukraine we see exactly the same scenario playing out. The sole difference being that with the Ukies the terror against civilians began on day 1 as soon as Yanukovich was overthrown, especially in Kiev, Odessa and Kharkov. But pretty soon the junta organized something like a military force and sent it to fight the Resistance in Novorussia. Soon, however, it became painfully obvious that the Ukie military did not want to fight and that the Ukie terror squads could not fight. So, naturally, they both turned against the civilians, just like the US and NATO always do.

Though they will not admit it, the junta leaders probably realize that the Donbass is lost forever and that even if they occupy it, all they will get for it in a never-ending insurgency. So from the point of view of the Nazi junta, terrorizing civilians is a perfect strategy: either they leave or the die. And, as an added bonus, if the junta commits enough atrocities, Russia might be forced to intervene, which would be a dream come true for the junta and Uncle Sam.

But some reporters, even well-intentioned one, just don't get it. For example, they say that the Tochka-U missile is inaccurate and that it cannot be accurately targeted. This is not true at all. The missile is called "Tochka" which means "spot" or even "dot" because it is extremely accurate. It's "inaccuracy" is not in the fact that it cannot precisely be targeted, but because its warhead can kill everything alive on a surface of three acres, more with a cluster of FAE warhead. When the Ukies shoot a Tochka-U at a residential neighborhood of Lugansk (like they did yesterday) they are deliberately trying to kill as many civilians as possible. Ditto for their massive MLRS strikes. For the Ukies civilians are not "collateral damage" - they are the primary target.

From all the reports, the junta has more or less given up on the notion of actually fighting the Resistance. Instead, they try to terrorize and kill as many civilians as possible, and they use their numerical superiority to probe everywhere along the line of contact. If a location appears less defended, they then "take it" - even if the "conquered" position was not even defended in the first place. It makes for good soundbites and headlines in the MSM.

Now they have destroyed the main water supply station in Lugansk. Again, this is not a mistake. Just like the numerous artillery strikes against local hospitals, including cancer-treatment facilities, the destruction of the civilian infrastructure is logical "if we can't have it - neither will you" is how Uncle Sam and his death squads have always operated. This is why the Ukies have now begun bombing the coal mines.

What the Ukies are doing is a terror campaign of ethnic cleansing which is deliberate and systematic. All that talk about "poor targeting" and "mistakes" is nonsense.

The Saker

Full speech delivered by Hezbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on Friday August 15, 2014.


I take refuge in Allah from the stoned devil. In the Name of Allah, The Compassionate, The Most Merciful. Peace be upon the Seal of Prophets, our Master and Prophet, Abi Al Qassem Mohammad, on his chaste and pure Household, on his chosen companions and on all messengers and prophets.

Peace be upon you and Allah’s mercy and blessings.

We meet today on this dear annual anniversary of the historic epic of steadfastness, resistance, heroism, and victory.

On this dear anniversary, we must renew our praise to Allah Al Mighty on pushing away calamities, strengthening our hearts, guiding our minds, and the great victory He bestowed on Lebanon, the Lebanese people, the Lebanese resistance, and the Lebanese Army, and in fact on the entire nation. This is a divine blessing bestowed on the entire nation in face of what was threatening it through that aggression as we will see in a while when we go back to this issue.
Praise be to Allah always for all His uncountable and unlimited kindnesses and blessings. {Should you list the blessings of Allah, you would not be able to count them}.

It is also our obligation tonight to thank and salute the souls of the martyrs who were killed and whose blood was shed so that we live with dignity and pride and who are still being martyred one after the other with all bravery and heroism. It is our obligation tonight to laud specially Martyr Leader Hajj Ibrahim Al Hajj who is known as brethren Abu Mohammad Selman who led the epic of steadfastness and confrontation in the borderline town of Aita Ashaab for 33 long days. Our salutations to all martyrs – the martyrs of all resistance movements, forces, and parties – the martyrs of the people, the Lebanese Army martyrs, the martyrs of the security forces, the martyrs of the civil defense, and the media outlets martyrs. We extend our salutations to every martyr who was raised to His Creator in that oppressive, aggressive war. We extend our regards to every loyal wounded, to every prideful steadfast person, to every tolerant displaced who was sure of his dignified return, and to all the honorable families – the families of the martyrs and the wounded, the families that remained steadfast, the families which were displaced, and the families which received the displaced and embraced them. We extend our regards to all presidents and leaders who assumed responsibility and partook in making victory. As for those who did not show any interest but on the contrary crippled making victory, let's keep them aside as we don't want to make any problem with anyone. On the other hand, we laud all those who assumed responsibility and partook in making victory whether presidents, leaders, forces, elites, and every one who showed solidarity and support whether states, governments, or peoples. We extend our sincere regards to all who did not refrain from offering any kind of support despite all dangers – I mean the Islamic Resistance in Iran and Syria. Still, I must thank dearly those who after Allah Al Mighty had all the virtue in making this historic epic. They are the heroic resistance fighters who remained steadfast in all their posts, fought with all bravery, took the enemy by surprise, intimidated him, and toppled all his schemes, tactics, and minds. They even transferred the battle to his side without showing any sense of boredom, hesitation, feebleness, melancholy, and weakness despite the cruelty of the aggression and the massacres of the enemy perpetrated against their families and dear ones in the villages, cities, and towns. After all, it was these resistance fighters who forced the enemy to shout and cry for his American masters to help and put an end to the war in the last days. Thus was the divine, historic victory in July War.

We must also recall with all awe and admiration all the leaders of the resistance especially the martyr leaders and more precisely the Master of the Islamic Resistance martyrs – Sayyed Abbass Mussawi – the Sheikh of the Islamic Resistance martyrs – Sheikh Ragheb Harb – and the Leader Martyr whose virtues and efforts were enormous and great in this war – Hajj Imad Moghniyeh or Hajj Ridwan as he is known - besides all those who established this resistance day after day and generation after generation. We must recall with much reverence the establisher of this heroic resistance in Lebanon – His Eminence leader Imam Sayyed Mussa Sader especially that we are days away from marking the painful incident of his kidnap.

Brothers and sisters! Much was said about July War. Speeches were delivered as well as lectures and lessons. Books were written and studies were put. Investigations were made and morals were drawn by friends and foes in the world and in the region as well as by us. Still this war, the events of this war, and the repercussions of this war on all levels and domains are the issue for research, investigation and discussion simply because it was not a small war or a trivial incident. Rather it was a true war with political moral, economic, and historic dimensions and targets that transcend Lebanon and Palestine to cover the entire region and even to influence the international equation. It is enough to recall what the former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said then on July Aggression to the effect that it was the labor pain for the birth of a Neo Middle East. So the war had regional targets and dimensions as well as international targets and dimensions. Much of this given was revealed during the war. However, following the war, all the given was revealed from the articles which were written, the journalistic interviews which were recorded, the investigations which were made, the studies which were carried, and the memoirs which were written by presidents, leaders of states, generals, and foreign ministers. All of that provided the required given and documents especially what the Israelis said and interpreted, what the Americans said and interpreted, and what one of the senior US men of intellect told me. In fact, this is not a secret. It was written in a number of articles.

Later on, it was revealed that July War – July Aggression – was a primary chain in a series of stages which had decisive targets. In 2006, it was required via the war on Lebanon first to put an end to the resistance in Lebanon and to crush the resistance in Lebanon and not only to disarm the resistance with the persistence of the structure and the persons or this entity which may get armed again later on. No, what was put forth was not disarming or disbanding the resistance. What was required was crushing the resistance and killing its leaders and cadres and hitting its joints and resistance men and arresting the greatest number of them. You can still remember that they were preparing a prison in one of the settlements in the north or in the middle of the Zionist entity to arrest 10000 persons. They wanted to achieve a structural change via this war which was a chain in a series which was to carry on with the end of the resistance in Lebanon. These are given and information. I am not making an analysis. Under the pretext that Syria backed the resistance and provided it with arms, rockets, and qualitative arms, the Israelis would then proceed and hit Syria what would lead to toppling the regime and the establishment of a friendly alternative which is allied with the USA.

I want to remind you that all of that took place in 2006 following the US occupation of Iraq and the major US military presence in the region. The third chain in the series was hitting the Palestinian resistance especially in Gaza Strip. Those who mentioned this said that all of that was supposed to be achieved in 2006 and before the end of 2006. That's because partial elections were to take place in the US Congress. George Bush and the Neo Conservatives wanted to reach the legislative elections having in their hands three heads dripping blood: the head of the resistance in Lebanon, the head of the resistance in Palestine, and the head of the regime in Syria. This is according to the terminology of the Americans themselves.

Thus if we were observing the US media prior to July War, we would have noticed great exaggeration especially for Hizbullah, Hamas, Jihad, and the regime in Syria and their role in so-called "terrorism".

All of that was a kind of psychological, media, and moral preparation so that if the three heads were cut off, George Bush would tell the Americans: I cut off for you three heads of international terrorism. Thus you have nothing but to vote for me as I can guarantee the interest and the future of the United States. Following his victory in the US Congress, the following step would be preparing for the war on Iran and toppling the regime in the Islamic Republic in 2007. I am not talking for history. I rather want to stop on the targets behind this track which are in fact two:

First: The firm compact US control over the oil, gas, and energy resources in the region. Well, Iraq is in their hands. They would lay their hands on the region here, hit the resistance movements, topple the regime in Iran, and put their hands on Iran. They are already in the Gulf. The main resources of energy in the world are in this area.

Second: The true targeting of the resistance movements, of Iran, and of Syria mounts in fact to putting an end to the Palestinian cause and imposing a settlement on the Palestinians and on the Arabs with US conditions. This was the target. This track was set to achieve this goal, and the elements of this track were the direct US occupation of Iraq and previously of Afghanistan which was occupied as a reaction to the events of September 11. Second comes the Israeli war as Israel was required to hit the resistance in Lebanon, topple the regime in Syria via the war, and put an end to the resistance in Palestine so as to achieve these goals.

How was this track crippled? Who crippled it? Why was it toppled?

Thanks for the resistance in Lebanon, the legendary Lebanese steadfastness, and all those whom I lauded in my prelude. The victory of the resistance in July War toppled this track or at least crippled it.

Why? It is because of the results in the battlefield. This is what I talked about on al Qods Day, and here I am reiterating this point as we address Gaza, the resistance in Gaza, the people of Gaza, and our Palestinian brethrens. The battlefield forced the Israelis to cry out when they reached a point in which they were not able to do anything. The air force was exhausted. The land force was exhausted. The sea force was canceled from the equation. Operations behind the borderlines came to be a very dangerous adventure due to the battlefield developments which took place. The Israelis reached a point where they were heading to a military catastrophe. Thus they called on the Americans to stop the war. All what was written in memoirs and all what we were told by Arab foreign ministers and leaders who partook in the talks in New York like on these days and nights assert this given.

Thus the steadfastness of Lebanon - the steadfastness of the resistance in the battlefield first, the popular steadfastness and incubation of the resistance second, and the political steadfastness third though we had a great political problem internally – forced the Americans, the Israelis, the Europeans, and the Security Council to make concessions concerning most of the conditions which they put in the first, second, and third weeks of the war to stop the aggression against Lebanon.

The result was:

First: The resistance in Lebanon remained. It was not crushed. Its structure was not hit. It was not disarmed. On the contrary, the resistance in Lebanon grew more and more whether in its structure, number, arms, and popularity, esteem, and confidence it enjoyed.

Second: The Israeli war did not reach Syria because it flopped in Lebanon. Should the Israelis have proceeded in Lebanon they would have been moving towards a catastrophe. Thus how were they to broaden the compass of the war?

Third: The war on Gaza did not take place in 2006 or it was postponed. Before the war in Lebanon, there were violent aerial operations against Gaza Strip. So at least the war against Gaza was postponed to the end of 2008. Moreover, the resistance operations against the US occupation in Iraq escalated, and consequently, the political steadfastness in Iraq, the resistance in Iraq, and the Iraqi national will led to the withdrawal of the US occupation without keeping any barracks or gaining any immunity for US soldiers and officers. Consequently, the Neo Conservatives lost the elections and a new administration came to power. Thus this track came to an absolute end.

That does not mean that the US goals were toppled. No! We must always keep in mind that there are always fixed US goals in the region.

To achieve these goals, the US administration follows definite tracks or put specific schemes and projects. When a track is toppled, it resorts to another, a third, a forth, and a fifth until an absolute end is put to the entire US-Israeli project in the region. Only then there will remain no project or target or track. However, as long as the US-Israeli scheme and these US targets – part of which are Israeli targets – exist, it will always search for tracks on the light of the existing capabilities, events, developments, and factors.

Well, this war flopped.

We said all of this first to usher into the main study which is the main part of tonight's speech.

Second, we want to remind of the magnitude of the political and historic victory with which July War was so that it would not be forgotten amid the current events and developments.

Lebanon, the Lebanese people, the Lebanese resistance, the state, the army, and everyone who had a true hand in this achievement and this historic victory made this great, historic, political, military, intellectual, cultural, moral, and humanistic achievement whose repercussions are still valid until our very day.

Third, we want to assert before the current and upcoming dangers and intimidations that we are all able to confront these dangers and we are able to topple any track conspiring against our region, country, countries, peoples, and sanctities. That's because in July War, when the Americans adopted this track they had all the elements of strength. I even claim that at that time the Americans were at the peak of their strength. In fact, not a power in history and in the world reached the peak the Americans reached following 2001 and 2002. The peak of the US military, security, political, information, and media power and the peak of US intimidation and ferocity was in that decade.

Second, the regional and international conditions were favorable. There were no Soviet Union, no socialist camp, and no Arab world. All of these collapsed before the USA. So the regional and international conditions were very favorable.

Those who were able to confront that track and topple it at that time are able to confront any other track and topple it. I am not talking about a specific side but rather about the sum of these sides in the region from Lebanon to Palestine to Syria to Iraq to Iran and the other sides in the region – every side according to its capacities, post, and capabilities. This is another goal from recalling all of the above.

In our viewpoint, the Israeli aggression and war taking place against Gaza Strip is part of a new track. We said that the first track was toppled. The region moved to other developments and events which we may differ in evaluating, reading, and specifying their reasons. However the entire Arab region entered a new status quo.

Well, on light on this new status quo, the Americans or the other antagonistic project drew a new track to achieve its goals which are still the same: controlling the region and the resources of oil in the region, achieving victory for the Israelis, liquidating the Palestinian cause, and imposing condition on the Palestinians and the Arabs with Israeli provisions. So they are the same targets. They did not change. From time to time, only the tracks and tactics change.

What is taking place in Gaza today is part of this new track which started before the launch of the war on Gaza. Now Gaza is a chain in a series or one of the stages of the new track which consists of two elements as in the previous decade. I said that in the previous decade there were two elements: the first element is the direct military action which led to the occupation of Iraq and the control over the Gulf region via this occupation. The second element is Israel, the Israeli army, and the Israeli war.

Following all what afflicted them and their withdrawal from Iraq and their crisis in Afghanistan, the Americans today are very much cautions of any military return to the region or at least of any military land return. Thus when they talk about US intervention in Iraq, Obama, the Secretary of State, the Secretary Defense, and the National Security officials daily say that they will not dispatch land troops or soldiers or infantry soldiers. This one way or another expresses this condition.

Well, today there are two factors exploited in this track. I will say things in their names. To all those who listen to me, please open your minds and hearts because we are all in Lebanon and the region in a stage of existential danger. Thus we will not talk about privileges, perfections, and better and more prosperous conditions. We are talking about the very existence.

Well, today there is a new track which I will talk about before going back to the two factors. The new track is more difficult and more dangerous than the previous one because it is not the track of toppling regimes and establishing alternative authorities. In such a track, when you topple a regime and bring along an alternative authority, the country remains as an entity; the state remains, the borders remain, the social structure remains or it might be harmed, and the army remains or might be harmed. The only thing that takes place is toppling an authority and bringing along an alternative authority.

The new track is not that of toppling regimes and establishing alternative regimes. It is rather the track we talked about in more than one occasion. It is the track of demolishing and ruining states, armies, peoples, and entities. We do not need evidence on what is taking place. We will go to that later. So it is the track of demolishing, disintegrating, crushing, and ruining everything.

The Americans are moving in this track along with all those who are with the Americans in the region including Israel too. They want to draw a new map for the region. However, on what is this new map to be drawn? New maps were drawn for the region following World War I and World War II. However, now on what they want to draw a new map for the region? They want to draw it on the disjoined limbs not only of individuals but also of states, peoples, societies, and ruins. So it is not that pillars and walls would remain and we would have only to repair them and rebuild the ceiling. The new map is to be drawn on baffled minds as a result of the events which are taking place and are plotted to take place in the region. Thus minds would become baffled: Where are we to go? What choices do we have? What are we to do? The new map is to be drawn also on terrified hearts. There is a very moving scene: a helicopter in Sinjar – I don't remember now whether it is an Iraqi helicopter or an American helicopter though I believe it is an Iraqi helicopter – carrying women and children from land. Just look at their faces and eyes and recall your women and children to know on what the new map of the region is to be drawn. It is to be drawn on disjoined limbs, ruins and wrecks, baffled minds, and terrified hearts. They want us all in the region to reach a catastrophe, and to end this catastrophe we would accept any dictations. Just put an end to this catastrophe. Save us from this calamity and you will have whatever you want in return. We are even ready to offer you our eyes. It would be a social, security, political, economic, intellectual, mental, and emotional catastrophe. Even worse, the main enemy would be the savior and the rescuer after all. This is where the region would be dragged to.

Well, what are the main factors of this track?

The first factor is the Israelis. This is what I talked about when talking about the demolition and ruining taking places in Gaza. As the Palestinian brethrens said, the true and factual target is hitting the resistance, disarming the resistance, putting an end to the structure of the resistance, and making the people in Gaza Strip frustrated from everything called resistance and that thus surrender. As such nothing would remain but ruin and wrecks.

The second factor is no less dangerous. It is the Takfiri current which the ISIL has become today the most prominent and evident manifestation of. ISIL is the greatest manifestation of this current.

Well, these are the factors of this new track. I will return later to this point when I talk about ISIL and the new track. However, now I want to usher to this study through this question which is the main idea in tonight's speech. Is it possible to gain victory over this new track and to defeat it? Yes! I tell the Lebanese, the Syrians, the Iraqis, the Palestinians, and all the peoples of the region: Yes, it is possible to defeat this new track as the previous track was defeated. However, this can't be achieved by wishes. This may be achieved with action supported with supplication. This requires conditions and elements and special efforts to be exerted.

There are two points which I want to stress on. Yes, we can reach a place in which we can defeat this new track.

The first title is that we comprehend and believe that there is a true existential threat confronting us. First, we must comprehend whether there is such a threat or not.

Second, we must comprehend whether there is a true serious threat or whether it is a joke or an absurd jest. What are the dimensions of this danger, the capabilities of this danger, and the capacities of this danger? We must understand, comprehend, and believe this first. So no one must say that there is nothing and that this is mere exaggeration. No one must say there is nothing in the region. There is no danger. This is an absurd jest. This is a transient incident. There is nothing. Well, this is wrong. Why? In fact, there must be a state between exaggeration and understatement.

That's because you in Lebanon may come face to face before this danger at a time you have not prepared anything. You have no strategy. You have no elements of strength. You did not get ready. You have no plan. Then you will feel remorse, but that would be of no good to you at a time you would have run out of time. That is wrong. Those who say there is nothing of this sort are insisting stubbornly against the real fact. You see all what is taking place and still you say there is no danger!

Second: you would be exaggerating if you present things in a magnitude greater than their true magnitude what might lead to a state of horror, fear, frustration, and despair. Thus the spirit of defeat and surrender would sneak to the souls. People might start thinking of how to gather their things and pack their bags and travel. This would prepare his passport. That would think of a place to hide in because things are over. Danger is proceeding and he has no power to confront it as what befell the region during the Mongol invasion for example.

So it is neither true to say that there is nothing and that this is a jest nor that there is no ability to confront and thus a state of despair and frustration and defeat might prevail. Both tracks are wrong. What's true is that we comprehend the danger, the magnitude of this danger, the capacities of this danger, and the capabilities of this danger and believe that there is a danger. This is the first point.

The second point is to search for the means to confront this threat, to topple it, to put an end to it, and to defeat it. The means must be true, factual, and serious. So we must not go to illusions and mirage options. We must not go for choices which were tried and proved to be fruitless. We must go for factual choices from the history of our region, from the history of our peoples, from the history of our nation, and from the history of the entire humanity while taking into consideration all the facts, data, and international, regional, and local equations. Then we would say there is such and such and so and so means. Then we would put a plan and say these are the elements of this plan and get ready to confront this threat. Through these two points it is possible to confront this threat taking into consideration July War, the current war on Gaza, the previous war on Gaza, the experiences of the resistance and what took place in the region, and the experiences of the Palestinians, the Lebanese, the peoples of the region, and even the entire Arab world, and the entire Islamic war over decades – meaning before 1948 to our present day. We had painful and sorrowful experiences and at times humiliating experiences. Some experiences were very hard on the peoples, the governments, the generations…. This is what we inherited. We inherited the experience of Israel, the Zionist project, the Zionist expansion…

First and only to make the idea clear with the beginning of the twentieth century, they started bringing along the Zionist families, peasants, craftsmen, and merchants to Palestine.

What was the number of the Arabs and what was the number of the Jews? What was the number of the Jews in Palestine? They were incomparable. If you would tell any Palestinian or any Arab that the Jews want to establish a state in Palestine via the Zionist project, he would answer you saying: You are kidding indeed. You are lying for sure.

They started getting the families along. There was no evaluation of the danger at first. Some people did not foresee the danger at first. Some people underestimated it. Others oversimplified it. Others classified it under the human dimension. They said: Poor they! They are homeless and scattered in the states. In WWII they were exposed to such and such. Of what harm it would be if some families were brought along and settled in our regions? The land of Palestine is wide, and the people of Palestine do not cover the entire Palestinian geography.

Since the very beginning, these families were distributed in settlements pursuant to military and security offices. From the very beginning, nothing took place by accident. However, the peoples, the elites, the governments, and many others did not comprehend this point. Not all of them though; some people comprehended what took place. Some people were conscious of what took place. Others have previous expectations and sounded the bell of alarm. However, the overwhelming majority did not comprehend this point.

In 1948, they said: "They want to take the land occupied since 1948 and establish a state. Well, the land of Palestine is vast, and the Arab land is vast". They did not deal with that as a danger and that Israel will extend with its eye on al Qods and other areas.

Also in 1967, some Arabs used to find excuses to Israel. They used to say: "Israel has expansionary goals! That's impossible. It does not want to seize the Bank. It does not put its eyes on west al Qods. It does not want to enter Jordan, Golan Heights, and definite regions in Lebanon. What Israel perpetrated in 1967 was a pre-emptive war because it had information that the Arab states and the Arab armies – especially both the Egyptian and the Syrian Arab armies – were preparing themselves for a final war with the Israelis besides the Palestinian resistance factions which existed then. Poor Israelis! They have waged a pre-emptive war. However, they do not want to expand. Wasn't this said in the Arab world?

The magnitude of threat started to mushroom until we reached a place in which Israel became a state having the most powerful army in the world. It became the most powerful state in the world which threatens, bombards, displaces, kills, perpetrates massacres, goes to the negotiations table, and imposes conditions. How did we reach this result? Here we go back to the first title as there was debate over whether the Zionists who came from all around the world posed a threat or not. In case they posed a threat, what is the magnitude of this threat? What are the capacities and elements of strength of this threat? This is first.

Here we come to the second title. They bet on wrong choices. Only few did not. I will discuss the choices of these few later.

Some bet on the international community, international institutions, and the Arab relations with their allies. Some believed the English; others believed the French; others believed the Americans. Others bet on international intervention and then on the Arab League and on waiting for a united Arab strategy. That took place in Lebanon, in Palestine, and in several states in all the confrontations with the Zionist project. Others bet on the Organization of the Islamic Conference, and the unity of the Arab and Islamic world. What is this? We remained waiting for ten years followed by another ten years and followed also by another ten years. By today, we have been waiting for 70 years and even more if we started counting from the previous century.

They resorted to choices such as going to negotiations, turning to the world, to the international community, to the Arab conscience, to the Human Rights Chart, and to Geneva Agreement for help. That did not lead to the true road. Experiences show that that did not lead anywhere, and the evidence is what befell the Palestinians, the Lebanese, and the peoples of the region over all of these decades. Whoever has another logic let him present it.

However, the only thing which was true from the very beginning was going to so called armed struggle, so called war of liberation, and so called military choice as there were terrorist gangs supported by some foreign states which occupied the Palestinian territories in 1948, displaced the Palestinian people and turned them to refugees in their own land and outside Palestine. It was also required that the nation be awakened, that armies be prepared, that the resistance factions get ready, and that everyone work to achieve this goal and to expel these invaders. This is the right path. There was no other right path.

However, this path was adopted partially. The Palestinian resistance factions with all its popular forms emerged from the very beginning – before 1948 and after 1948. All of this was recorded as a history, and lessens must be drawn from it as a history.

Then came the confrontation with Egypt, confronting the tripartite aggression by the end of the 50s, and preparing following 1967 to the war with Israel which took place in 1973 in which the Egyptian and the Syrian armies waged heroic battles ending in what it ended in.

Because of the resistance movements in Lebanon and in Palestine, achievements took place and victories were made. These are the right kind of choices and not the miserable choices which either we laugh on ourselves with or we laugh on our peoples with or we amuse ourselves with.

For example, one of the theories which remained for tens of years is that the solution is establishing an Arab lobby as there is a Zionist lobby. As such equilibrium would be made between us and the Zionist lobby, and thus we would pressure the American administration and reach a solution in the Middle East. What is this? This talk is for amusement. This is a kind of lying on the people. This is a legend and not only a theory.

This is the experience that took place in the Israeli file. Now the bet is on Gaza, on the people of Gaza, on its fighting and struggling factions, on its peoples, its will, its resistance because it depends on this choice and does not want to surrender to the Israeli enemy. They do not want to bow despite all the sacrifices. They are not losses but rather sacrifices: martyrs, wounded, demolition, and everything. There is no other choice.

Now let any Palestinian brother or sister who lives in Gaza Strip or in any place recall all the modern history – we are not talking about things that took place 200 years ago or a 1000 years ago. Thus we conclude that this path is the right path and this for sure would lead to a result and in many places would lead to results.

This is the implementation of the two titles on a file which is still valid, alive, vital, and dangerous - meaning confronting the Zionist project.

We come now to the second sample which exists now. I want to talk a little now. I want to say: "O brothers and sisters! I am addressing the Lebanese and all the peoples of the region who are listening to me. Based on all what previously was mentioned and apart from all what took place in the past three weeks and the discrepancies on the viewpoints, the evaluation, the reasons, and assuming responsibilities and saying we are right and blaming the other, let's put all of this aside because all of that is of no use. Why? Because there is a true danger on your entities, sanctities, states, and on your foreign existence, houses, mosques, churches, women, and children. Consequently, today it's no time for reconsideration. Are we to make reconsiderations now? Well, we want to make that later on. However, today the entire region and the peoples of the entire region are before a new, great, and true danger.

Today, let's see what is called ISIL and what is taking place today? Let's talk about facts.

Today, there is a regime which has become a state which is occupying and controlling a very vast geographic area – a part of Syria, and a part of the Iraqi territories. In fact, this area is much larger than some of the states in the region and the world. If we talk about the geographic area, they are controlling the sources of energy, oil, gas, and others. They control major rivers, major water dams. They have enormous quantities of arms and artilleries. They sell oil, and there are those who buy from them and trade with them and facilitate this operation. This is questionable. There are countries which have thousand problems in selling an oil carrier. How is ISIL able to sell and be financed before the eyes of the international community and regional countries for example? This organization has a great number of fighters too. The overwhelming majority of the main fighters are not Syrian or Iraqi fighters. They are rather fighters who were brought along from abroad. Their travel and their crossing the border were facilitated. This is also questionable. This organization which has this presence and has a special doctrine, view, understanding, and conduct which we noticed from Syria to Iraq started perpetrating massacres. It is not that they were engaged in a war. Rather they committed massacres, killed prisoners and captives, and killed innocent people. They started with their fellow tribesman – the followers of the same organization, the same intellect, the same pillar, and the same pledge. They are the al-Nusra. Then they started killing and are still killing the rest of their allies who are naturally their allies – meaning the Syrian armed forces. Battles are taking place now in the northern reef in Aleppo between ISIL and the rest of the factions. In fact, in some places al-Nusra kept themselves aside. The battles are taking place in Reef Idlib and north Idlib. Major battles took place in Deir Al-Zour. In Iraq and in Syria they fight, kill, and even slaughter everyone who differs with them in their viewpoints. So notice that they choose the means that depends on terrorizing. Well, if you concluded that you are allowed to kill those people, open fire on them and kill them. But no, they do not kill them except by slaughtering them before the camera. They even put it on the you-tube and broadcast it on satellite outlets so that the scene is seen worldwide. This is part of the psychological war that aims at spreading fear, terror, and horror among the peoples of the region, the governments, and the armies of the region. I would like to tell you that the massacres which were perpetrated are in the first place against Sunnis. You can review the numbers. Who killed the Sunnis? Who killed the Sunni scholars who are not with the regimes but rather against the regimes? See the people who were killed by ISIL. That's because the Sunnis whom we know as Sunnis are according to ISIL considered as unbelievers. That's because according to their doctrinal, intellectual, and jurisprudential categorizations, the unbelievers are so and so and so. This also applies to the Ash'aris, and most of the Sunnis in the world are Ash'aris in the doctrinal and intellectual sense of the word. However, if they were not Ash'aris but they differ with them politically or over the pledge, they would kill them. Didn't this take place?

What about the recent war waged by the ISIL? Well are the Kurds Christians or Shiah? Their majority are Sunnis. In this battle, over a million and a half million were displaced because of the ISIL war in Iraq. They are Sunnis. They are neither Shiah, nor Christians, nor Oyazdians. Well, in Iraq, ISIL did not spare anyone of whatever religion: Muslims, Christians, and Oyazdians. They did not spare anyone of whatever sect: Sunnis and Shiah. They did not spare anyone even if talking about races and nationalities: Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmen. They did not spare anyone. Also in the battle in Syria, the same thing took place. They spared neither Arabs nor Kurds.

The ISIL ruined sanctities, sacred shrines, mosques, and churches. They want to forcefully impose a definite life-style with the force of arms and terrorizing people – all people and not only Christians but rather Muslims and Christians alike. This life-style does not have anything to do with Islam, with Prophet Mohammad (pbuh), or with the Holy Quran. This is something else. Go and meet scholars. Ask all sects.

Well, does this scene exist or not? Is it a joke? They are announcing their goals. They put their map which they want to draw and they threat and bombard. What is even more dangerous from all of that is that they have a popular ground. Why should we hide behind our finger? They have a popular ground in several Arab states. It is not a Sunni background. No! Their background is the followers of this intellect which labels as an unbeliever everyone other than themselves. They declare killing everyone other than themselves permissible. They take as prisoners everyone's women except their women. They brag saying we came to slaughter you. That does not belong to any divine religion. No religion revealed by Allah Al Mighty says "we came to slaughter you". Attributing that to Prophet Mohammed (pbuh) is very dangerous and fake. After opening Mecca, Prophet Mohammed (pbuh) stood confronting Abu Sufyan and so and so… who fought him, displaced him, killed his companions, killed his uncle, devoured his uncle's liver, confiscated houses, and harmed him severely until he said: "No prophet was harmed as I was harmed." They fought him until they were frustrated. They became his prisoners and still they remained polytheists. Not all of them became Muslims. Some pretended to be Muslims, and some remained polytheists and ran away and hid themselves. However, what did the Prophet tell them?

Go you are free. He did not behead them. He did not slaughter them. He did not say "we came to slaughter you". When did he say "we came to slaughter you"? This is the slogan of ISIL. This is the slogan of this current.

So there is a true scene. Whoever says this does not exist lives in another world. In fact, such a person is not allowed to assume responsibility. He is not entitled even to assume the responsibility of his family and not the responsibility of a current or a group or a society or a country. He is not entitled to assume the responsibility of his wife and children. He is not entitled to assume responsibility. This is a clear scene.

As for those who stand behind ISIL, the stories of the Syrian intelligence, the Iraqi intelligence, the Iranian intelligence, and even of Hizbullah fabricating ISIL and running it are absurd. This does not deserve to be commented on. Well, yes there are regional countries which sponsored and are sponsoring ISIL and led it to this place. The Americans may have a hand pursuant to the word Hilary Clinton was quoted as saying. I do not want to be responsible of saying this as I do not know whether this is right or wrong. However, all I know is that the Americans kept a blind eye on that, offered facilitations, and opened the gates to exploit this phenomenon in the track I talked about before. Indeed they are penetrated. Indeed, there is US influence, and whether they know or not, they are serving the US and the Israeli target in this new track.

Well we reached where we reached. Here I want to ask a question before moving to the last part of my speech. I call on every Lebanese, every Palestinian, every Syrian, every Iraqi, and every man in the Gulf to sit alone and make reflections. Allah Al Mighty says: {Do stand before Allah in pairs and singly}.

So put fanaticism aside whether party, sectarian, factional, regional or national fanaticism. Let's keep personal, party, and political calls aside. Really let's keep such calls aside this time and sit and think and make reflections. This poses a danger on everyone. Does that pose danger on Hizbullah only? Is there Hizbullah in Deir Al-Zour or in Riqqa or in Mussel? Was Hizbullah fighting ISIL so that the latter invaded Mussel? Does that pose danger on the Shiah only? On Christians only? On the Oyazdians only? On the Alawis only? On the Ishmaels? On the Ibadis who are still far away? Or on Druze only? This poses a threat on everyone and on the Sunnis above all.

Thus we wholeheartedly hope that no one present the battle in the region as a sectarian battle. It is not an Islamic-Christian war. It is not a factional war. It is not a Shiah-Sunni war. It is a war of another kind. It is the war of ISIL which has this annihilative, eliminative, Takfiri, brutal, slaughtering intellect against anyone against them. Their intellect is not based on Islam or on what took place at the time of the Prophet or at the time of the first Muslim Caliphs, or on the map that was previously drawn for the region, or on religious minorities. All of this is deleted. The sects, factions, minorities, churches, mosques, and shrines they are demolishing are 1400 years old. The overwhelming majority of the holy sites they are downing were under Sunni government. However, the ISIL have nothing to do with this history, this intellect, or even this culture. They want to wipe everything. They pose a threat to everyone.

Anyway, first we must know that this poses a danger.

Second, we must discuss what we must do? We are all in the sphere of danger. What must we do? Must we – for example – benefit from the experience of our struggle with the Israeli threat which is still valid today? Shall we – for example – bet on the international community saying we can't do anything so let's go and talk with the Americans or the French or the English (as now Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine)? Let's see what we might do. There is no solution other than resorting to the international community to intervene. What international community would intervene? Where would the international community intervene? Whose side it will take? See what took place in Iraq. I am not calling for an American intervention. However, I just have a question. When ISIL invaded Mussel, Nineveh, and a large section of Salaheddine province, and broke into Diala and perpetrated massacres what forced people to run away in the desert (and all of these massacres are documented and we watched them on the TV), why did not the international community intervene? Why wasn't Obama's humanity and the American administration moved? Also when hundreds of thousands of Christians were attacked, they were not moved? In fact, they do not care for the Christians in Mussel or in Iraq or in Syria or in Lebanon. I would like to tell the Christians in Lebanon: Deluded is he among you who believe that the Christians in Lebanon mean anything to America or the west. Before any danger they will tell you what France told the Christians of Iraq: You are welcomed as refugees and we will grant you citizenships too. This is the project some seniors among you heard from the former French president. Does the west really care for the Christians in the region? Do you still seek help from the Americans, French, English, the international community, and the International Security Council after all what took place and is taking place? They do not care for Sunnis, Shiah, Christians, Oyazdians, and even Kurds. They did not care for the Kurds who were killed in Mussel, at the edges of Karkuk, in Zumar and Sinjar. They did not care for the Turkmen or the Arabs. Well, yes when ISIL came close to Erbil, they intervened because Kurdistan means what it means politically, security, and economically to the US administration and to the west. They intervened to tell ISIL that they are not allowed to come close to that area. These are your borders and limits. It is permitted that you slaughter Sunnis. It is permitted that you slaughter Shiah. It is allowed that you slaughter Christians and demolish their churches and imprison their women. It is permitted that you perpetrate genocides against Oyazdians, Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, and Turks alike. As for Erbil and Kurdistan, they have a different position on the map. Do you want us to bet on these Americans and on the international community? O Iraqis, Syrians, Lebanese, Jordanians, Palestinians, and peoples of the region! What are you waiting for? Will the Arab League protect you? Are you waiting for an Arab consensus or a united Arab strategy? I want to be very clear and precise. In any country around the world, when anyone feels that his existence is in the sphere of threat, elimination, and annihilation, does he wait for a national consensus? Has such a thing ever happened in history? No! Never!

So the big question is: If we agree that there is a danger threatening us, the question would be: How are we to confront this danger? Where shall we go? What are the capabilities? What are the means? What are the tools? There are major and big responsibilities to be shouldered by the Iraqis, the Syrians, the Palestinians, and the peoples of the region. I want to address the Lebanese and my logic can be applied on all the other peoples and countries because Praise be to Allah there are authorities, leaderships, scholars, parties, and movements which are perfect and great and fit to assume responsibility.

Allow me to go into details concerning the Lebanese application. Well, as Lebanese, do we agree that this danger exists and that it is a lurking danger and not a postponed danger that would come in 2 or 3 or 5 years? This was true before the events of Iraq and the event of Mussel. In fact, the country was in one situation and overnight it became in another situation. Anything may take place overnight in any country because ISIL today is a serious threat to Syria and Iraq. In logic, they say potential and actual. ISIL is an actual threat to Iraq and Syria and a potential threat to the rest of the countries: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries. The Turks even must reconsider their stance. There is a threat against all countries. Well, what is it possible that we as Lebanese do? What we must go to?

There are even questions which are posing themselves seriously nowadays. I even say that we in Hizbullah must make discussions. It's our obligation to make discussions with the rest of the Lebanese. The rest of the Lebanese must undergo dialogue among themselves. Indeed, I am not calling for a national dialogue conference for this issue because we will not reach anywhere as far as this issue is concerned. What we need is what I said a while ago: Stand before Allah in pairs and singly. Let every party and every group make their own discussions. Then they may communicate together and make bilateral or threefold talks. Let's as men of intellect, politicians, and elites talk with each other and see what we may do. There is a serious question which is always evoked. It is not an issue of making internal and political settlements among ourselves: Is the solution in the withdrawal of Hizbullah from Syria?

Hizbullah's main presence is in Qalamoun and Qusair – meaning the bordering area. It is presented that Hizbullah's withdraw from Qalamoun and Qusair is the solution!

I ask the Lebanese and especially the residents of Bekaa. I ask all the Lebanese Muslims and Christians alike. I am really serious. Put all quarrels aside. To make quarrels everything may be said. Is it true that if Hizbullah withdraws from Syria, the danger will be gone from Lebanon? Will ISIL then leave Lebanon alone? Does the ISIL really have no aspirations in Lebanon? Is it that some Lebanese officials would go to Mussel and meet Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi and tell him to eliminate Lebanon's 10452 km2 (in addition to some blocks) from the map he broadcasted on TV outlets because we talked with Hizbullah which will withdraw from Syria? Is that a fact or a simplification of things? Will withdrawing from Qusair and Qalamoun protect Lebanon?

Apart from our presence there, and apart from debating whether this is the reason or not as that will be of no use because everyone has his logic and everyone may provide his events, let's start from the very end. At the time being, the whole region is in danger. There is no time for intellectual luxury as what took place on the first day of July War 2006. Buildings were downed, infrastructure was being bombarded, people were being slaughtered…. Still some people were debating whom to hold responsible. Hizbullah is to be accused because they kidnapped the prisoners.

Well there is a crisis in the country. Let's address it and then we would debate whom to hold responsible. Now the national responsibility says: Let's face the war. Now the national responsibility says: Let's do something to protect the country. Let's protect our state, our Lebanon, our people, our society, and our region. I am asking you a serious question. Let's discuss this issue together. Does really our withdrawal from Syria protect Lebanon or does staying in Syria protect Lebanon? Among the other ideas proposed today is expanding the implementation of Resolution 1701 which is applied on the Lebanese southern borders. Well, let's expand it to cover the rest of the Lebanese borders with Syria. Others said only the Bekai borders. I have another serious question. The situation in the south is perfect. In fact, following July War, the situation changed as far as the Israeli issue is concerned. In the past, Israel used to act with utmost freedom in Lebanon. It used to kidnap and break in and move freely. Now it is not able to carry security operations as it has to take thousands of issues into consideration to do so. Well, some say the south is secure now. Thanks to Resolution 1701 it is secure! Thanks to the presence of the UNIFIL and the international forces. Is this really the case? Do you really say so and believe what you say? Whom are you laughing at? Well, go and ask the residents of the south. Ask the people in Lebanon. What is the validity of this idea?

Does Israel really observe international resolutions? Does Resolution 1701 protect Lebanon? Whom are you laughing at? Are you laughing on a people who had suffered for 60 or 70 years with Israel and now you want this people to believe that Resolution 1701 is protecting Lebanon?

Poor UNIFIL! They are protecting Lebanon! The UNIFIL need protection themselves. Was there no incubating environment, was there no state, and was there no army, the UNIFIL wouldn't have been able to protect themselves. It is the Army-People-Resistance equation which protected and is protecting Lebanon and the south. The resistance rocket power which they know very well, the capacities of the resistance, the resistance men, and the national doctrine of the Lebanese Army (as the Lebanese Army has no considerable military capabilities) are what protect Lebanon. These elements form the deterrence power and not the international umbrella of Resolution 1701 or the international forces or the UNIFIL. Let no one laugh at the Lebanese and cheat them saying he would protect Irsal, Labweh, Qaa, Ras Baalbeck, Zahle, Mount Lebanon, and Akkar through deploying the UNIFIL there. Is the Lebanese Army able to cover all the borders? Where from are you to get UNIFIL and spread them all over this area? What international umbrella are you talking about? Here I say that there is an international project. There is a track sponsored by the USA to destroy, crush, and ruin everything. Go and ask your allies who are afraid on their states and entities from this international connivance. When we say so about Resolution 1701, we would be wasting our time. Still I say that we must sit together and carry on discussions.

Well over the past few years, the previous government which we were part of and the current government practiced the policy of staying aside. Well does the policy of staying aside protect Lebanon? Well suppose we have followed this policy in the past and currently, and suppose that ISIL controlled Syria and came to be at the borders – God forbids. May this never take place. Suppose ISIL came to be at the borders of Rashaya, Hasbaya, Shebaa, Baalbeck, Bekaa, and the north. Shall we still say there is no danger in that? What are the guarantees? Would the country be protected?

Does the policy of staying aside protect the country? Is it true that we have nothing to do with what is taking place in Syria? Let ISIL, Al Qaeda, or whatever come, we have nothing to do with that. Is this approach realistic? Here I am not talking from the logic of the resistance or from the perspective of our loyalty to Syria. I am talking as a national Lebanese. Let's say that I am a fanatic Lebanese. Is this policy – the policy of staying aside – which indeed we did not adopt and others did not adopt so far the right policy to be followed? Is it right to reach a point in which the Lebanese National Army is being conspired against, its soldiers are being kidnapped and its soldiers and officers are being slaughtered and still it is not allowed to contact Syria because of the policy of staying aside. Is this logical?

Anyway, these are questions. Let's talk together. Hizbullah's presence in Syria: Does staying there or withdrawing from there protect Lebanon? Let's discuss this. Lebanon is in danger. We have a real problem with whoever says it is not in danger or among the Lebanese. Second, does Resolution 1701 protect the country? Does the policy of staying aside protect the country? Let's see what is the problem? Let's carry a quick revision for all of these choices to see together what the problem is.

I will wrap up my speech with our proposition. Between my hands is the last page that contains the head notes. Anyway, what does the logic, the mind, the religion, the Law of Islam and human experience say?

All of these say: When an entity, a state, or a society is before an existential danger, the absolute priority before this existential danger would be to make reorganizations in a way that meets this existential danger. Whoever does not act accordingly would not be acting according to the mind, religion, morals, and humanity. He would be exposing his people to the danger of annihilation while he is sitting and wasting his time with issues he sees as fateful and of priority. Well, such issues may be important but they are not fateful.

The first thing I present to the Lebanese now is the following:

I call on all the Lebanese to comprehend that our country, our entity, and our society is before an existential danger in an exceptional and very dangerous way. I am not exaggerating and whoever does not want to believe let him believe later. In face of this existential danger, we must define our priorities. This in the first place needs loyalty. It requires putting factional, sectarian, party, and personal considerations aside. This confrontation requires loyalty, seriousness, and sacrifices. It is not shameful to reconsider one's stance. It is not shameful to change one's speech if that serves the battle of existence. On the contrary, that is required. The mind, religion, and humanity say that is required. We must search for and gather the elements of strength and confront the danger.

The first title is the Lebanese Army and the official security forces. The army and the security forces must be the sides responsible for protecting the country, the people, the villages, and the borders. It is not Hizbullah or any other party. This is the main responsibility. The state must act accordingly and it must be fit to act accordingly.

In debate, some might say we are preventing that. No, we are not. Did we prevent anyone from providing the army with weapons? Did we prevent anyone from providing the army with tanks? Did we prevent anyone from donating aids to the army? On the contrary, we welcome all kinds of donations. What is important is that the army be furnished with arms, and not only with Rios, trucks, and troop carriers that do not stand before B7 or BKC or average arms. No! It is required that the army be provided with true arms. The army and the security forces are responsible of protecting the people, the state, and everyone.

So first, at this stage, there was a project for politicians to deliver some words to support the army. This project was in the hands of journalists, and I don't know what became of it. However, I like to say what I intended to say then as every person was supposed to talk for three minutes. What is required is true, popular, and official support to the army and not only materialistic support. What do I mean with true support? Today the army has a definite number of soldiers and such and such capacities and artillery. However, in the first place what about its morals, spirits, fighting doctrine, dignity, and pride? This is the responsibility of the state as well as the people.

Today, the primary and main support to be given to the army is that the state stands with the Lebanese Army to restore the captive soldiers and army and security forces officers who were kidnapped and imprisoned. Let no one interpret what I am saying as a kind of instigation. We always talk as such. Every hour and every moment pass while these dear ones are imprisoned is a moment of humiliation to Lebanon and not only to the army. It is a moment of humiliation to the state and to every Lebanese person. We always used to feel offended when there used to be any resistance man in Israeli prisons even if this man did not belong to Hizbullah. It is enough that this prisoner is left in prison.

As for the soldiers and the Lebanese Army and security forces officers who are detained by the armed forces, it is the responsibility of the state to seek to free them. This cause must be addressed in a way that saves the dignity of the army, the security forces and the dignity of this attire and these institutions.

First, the army must not be accused, and second any accusation to the army must be rejected. Every now and then, someone would say the army is cruciferous! What does that mean? The army is Safawi. It is a tool in the hands of Hizbullah. No it is not a tool in the hands of Hizbullah. There is no problem between the army and Hizbullah. On the contrary, this is required on the national level. The army takes pain to have no problem with any political force in the country. What if this political force is a primary faction in the resistance? Is fighting between Hizbullah and the army required? Does this serve the national interest? Indeed not!

All politicians know that the army is not a tool in the hand of Hizbullah at all. All of these accusations must not be made, and they must be rejected if they were made. This is our national army. This is the army of all the Lebanese. It needs this support and this backing on all levels. The same logic applies to the security forces. We must all achieve this so as to have a strong army, soldiers, artillery, spirits, morals, dignity, and confidence to change the equation. This makes a very remarkable change in the equation. Thus at any moment of danger, we would all be by its side shouldering it.

Second comes preserving the current government. We must not allow the dissolve of the current government whatever the discrepancies are because now it is one way or another the only active institution apart from the magnitude of the work it assumes. Everyone can see that the parliament is crippled. We do not have a president apart from allotting responsibilities.

We only have this government. The government is among the elements of power which we must guard until a president is elected and a new government is formed.

The third point is putting an end to party, sectarian, and factional instigation. All forms of instigations must be stopped. Where does instigation lead to? Let's take for example the cause of Irsal. Today, I will not say anything though there is much to be said. However, we are part of the people who preferred in this very sensitive moment as far as the political issue, the security issue, the national issue, the issue of the army, the issue of the structure of the country to remain silent though there is much to be said. However, you have seen that if they talk about the armed forces once, they attack Hizbullah 20 times. However is what I am saying of any good? Should I say what I am saying a thousand times, it will make no difference. It will only increase the state of congestion.

Today, I read a piece of news, and I do not know the truth about it. I read that the security forces arrested the person who stands behind the Al Ahrar Al Sunna Brigade website. Does this person really stand behind this website? Who is he? What is his relation with this brigade? With whom is his relation? No matter what the result is, must he be tried in the same way as any other person who is stirring sectarian and factional instigations in Lebanon is tried? That's because some media sides started drawing conclusions based on this arrest. I hope that this would be the beginning in Lebanon, and I hope the trial would cover the politicians too. Let no one say that would harm freedom. In fact, instigation is similar to a booby trapped car. This is not freedom. Sectarian and factional instigation is not freedom. It is rather similar to a booby trapped car. Be responsible as far as this issue is concerned, and an end would be put to instigation.

Fourth come regional reconciliations. Later we would see whether reconciliations would be made concerning the vast political situation or not. However, at least approaches and initiatives must be made among the residents of regions. I will talk in a transparent way. Let's take for example the region of Irsal Baalbeck Al Hermel and its future. O people of Irsal! O dear brothers! The future of Irsal is Baalbeck Al Hermel. Its future is north Bekaa. Its future is not al-Nusra or ISIL and what is taking place behind the borders. That is not your future. Take the experience of Irsal as an example, before the events, during the events, and after the events. Let the people of Irsal talk about what happened with them. I will not talk about that. I am only saying that someone must go and take initiatives for reconciliations there in Irsal, Labweh, Al Ain, Nabi Othman, Qaa, and Ras Baalbeck. The residents of that entire region must reunite and reconcile. This protects against danger or else the danger will invade us all. The first to pay the price and the first to have paid the price are the people of Irsal. Let's go to other regions. The social structure might have been become upset due to the recent events. Something must be done between Jabal Mohsen and Bab Attebanah. Something must be done between Dahiyeh and Chweifat as well as in west Beirut, Sidon, Shebaa, the neighborhood of Shebaa, Rashaya, and Hasbaya. This is a clear topic, and things must be done to address it. Indeed this is a responsibility to be shouldered by everyone and not by the state alone. Leaderships, authorities, parties, and political forces are all concerned as far as this issue is concerned.

Some people do not want to tolerate what I am saying but they must tolerate it. A kind of cooperation with Syria is required as far as the issue of the displaced is concerned at least. It is not true that Syria wants to keep the displaced in Lebanon. It is not also true that we can't find a solution between Lebanon and Syria. However a party can't do that. This must be assumed by both governments and states. We all agree that this is a serious and important file. It is a dangerous file from all perspectives, and I do not want to go into details. Well what is the solution? Is it in delivering speeches? Is the solution in waiting for the fall of the regime in Syria? Is the solution in waiting for the arrival of ISIL? If ISIL takes over, will the displaced return home or will their number increase in Lebanon? What are we waiting for? What are we – all the Lebanese – waiting for as far as this issue is concerned?

There is no need to insist stubbornly. Official talks between Lebanon and Syria are indispensable. They must all sit on the table. The Lebanese must tell the Syrians that there are a million or a million and a half million or whatever Syrian displaced in Lebanon. Well there are secure regions in Syria where people may live and work in a normal way. How are these people to return? Well if there are places where there are crises how can these crises be addressed? We are ready to help as far as this issue is concerned. We must not be satisfied with holding conferences, delivering speeches, and investing the issue of the displaced in political speeches and political conflicts. That does not solve the problem. What puts an end to the dangers we are talking about whether security danger, political danger, or demographic danger as some Christian leaderships say?

To be serious, we have only a very normal condition. These are Syrian displaced, and our borders are the sea, Occupied Palestine and Syria. How do we address this crisis? Shall we send them to Australia for example? Indeed no! We address it by sitting with the Syrians whether you like them or not and whether they agree with your classification of the regime or not. Classify the regime as it appeals to you. However, this is the truth. After all, do all the states that sit together and talk to each other consider each other legitimate and democratic? Now is this the basis for international relations?

We must talk with the Syrians and cooperate with them as far as the file of the displaced is concerned and later on whether we liked it or not as Lebanese and as a Lebanese government as far as the borders set pursuant to Resolution 1701 is concerned. The UNIFIL is not able to do anything neither is the Lebanese Army alone even if all its soldiers were deployed. There are hundreds of kilometers and not only 60 or 70 kilometers. Well, there are some points which you want to convince us of. Well let's find a way to agree with you. There are points which we want to convince you of. So why don't you find a way to agree with us?

The issue is not anymore a source of danger to the Shiah in Lebanon, or the Sunnis in Lebanon, or on the so and so party or the such and such movement, or on Christians or on Druze. The danger is facing us all.

So we must sit together and discuss everything including the presidential entitlement. Indeed if ours became a state with a president and an active parliament and a new government and dynamic institutions, Lebanon's ability to confront this danger would increase.

On my own transparent and clear way, I have to tell you one more thing. Perhaps I took much or your time tonight, but the presidential election is a topic that deserves our attention. Stop moving to and fro to no avail. As far as the presidential election is concerned, you know with whom you must talk. Do not talk with mediators. None of us in March 8 Bloc is a mediator. We are a bloc that supports a definite candidate. Whoever has anything to say knows with whom to talk. So don't waste time. Wasting time is not to the interest of Lebanon. If anyone has anything logical to say let him carry direct dialogue or else what would you be waiting for? Are you waiting for regional changes? Are you waiting for international changes? Nothing has anything to do with the regional or international issue. The side which takes the primary decision as far as the presidential entitlement is concerned is the Lebanese themselves. Let no one wait for a decision from abroad as far as the presidential entitlement is concerned. Let's be clear and precise.

It is also required to give the urgent files a kind of priority. This is required on the humanistic and moral level. Such files include the wages series, the crisis of day workers, the Lebanese University, the water crisis, the electric power crisis… Addressing these crises provide a kind of fortification. That does not mean let's work to confront the existential danger at a time people in villages have no water. Man may stay without electric power but not without water.

Indeed if we cooperate to address these files we would be fortifying our country. We would decrease the chances of tension and the dangers facing the country. This is a group of primary ideas. I do not claim that I set a plot tonight. I am evoking ideas which are debatable. We must altogether sit and see how to discuss these issues. I stress again that talks might be bilateral, threefold, fourfold, or fivefold. However, they must not be a dialogue table to be broadcast on TV outlets and to be watched by the audience and that would be the end of the story. As such we would not be holding serious, responsible, and faithful discussions. As for us, we are a group which is ready to partake in such talks and ready to make sacrifices. We are a group which is ready to offer sacrifices. We offer martyrs daily. We have wounded daily in this battle. We never refrained from offering sacrifices to our people, our country, our sanctities, and our nation.

See the families of the honorable martyrs. The family which has a lonely son would write you saying: "Why are you preventing my son from partaking in the battle. It is a battle of honor. It is a battle of dignity. It is a battle of existence. As for us, we are ready to offer sacrifices. I even have more to tell you. As for waiting for the results of discussions, had the Lebanese waited for reaching a national consensus over the resistance, Israel would have been today in Beirut and in Tripoli. Had the Lebanese, the Syrians, the Egyptians, and the Palestinians waited for an Arab consensus over the issue of the resistance, Israel would have been today controlling the area between the Nile and the Euphrates.

I will wrap up my speech in two clear brief words.

The first word I would like to address all the Lebanese with and all the peoples of the region with is that ISIL and those behind them may be defeated with utmost ease. It is not an incredible mission at all. Well, the battle with Israel is much more difficult than the battle with ISIL. Part of the battle with ISIL is psychological, meaningless collapses, and being penetrated. I really do not wish to go into details.

Is it possible to confront this danger? Is it possible to topple this track? Yes, this track has no future in the region. However, we can't say this track has no future in the region while we spend our time making pleasure trips. This track would have no future in the region if the Iraqis unite and assume responsibility, the Syrians unite and assume responsibility, and the Lebanese unite and assume responsibility. This issue is similar to the Israeli issue in face of which every Arab country must assume its responsibility. In all of my speech I was telling you that it is easy to defeat this project if we were responsible. However, this project might gain victory if we buried our heads in the sand. This project may invade and control states if the opposing side was frustrated, desperate, frightened, and horrified.

We must not fall into this state. Thus on the anniversary of July War, I call for a responsible national Arab stance on the Lebanese level, on the level of the government, on the level of the army, on the level of constitutional entitlements, on the popular level, and on the media and political level. Well, yes we are fit and able to guard our country and to defend our country so that our country remains proud, strong, noble, and honorable, and so that its components are guarded, and so that its mosques, churches, and sects are preserved. All of that might remain and might not be harmed. This is possible and not incredible no matter who stands behind ISIL.

The second thing I would like to say and be clear in saying is that if anyone abandoned his responsibility we will not abandon our responsibility. We will not migrate to any other place in the world. We will not hold any other nationality. We will not leave this land at all. We will remain here. We will remain here raising our heads high. Here we will live, and if fighting is imposed on us, here we will fight. Here we will be martyred and here we will be buried. This is our choice. As for the other Lebanese who would have this choice, we are ready to overlook all the past and all the conflicts between us.

Today, our country, the components of our people, our state, and our existence is in danger. We must assume this responsibility. As such we may guard our blood and the blood of all those who were martyred in like these days. As such we may guard the sufferings and the aspirations of all those who suffered and nurtured aspirations in like these days. As a Lebanese people, we are all fit to our country. We are all fit to defend our country. We are all fit to gain victory. So let's make victory. We will not bury our heads in the sand. We will not be defeated. We will not run away. Let no one pack his bag and tell us he wants to migrate. Let's stay here so that this country persists to be. Let's change the path of the region as July War changed the path of the region. This small Lebanon will change the path of the region.

Felicitations anew on this day of victory! Inshallah we will be moving towards more victories with the blessings of seriousness, faithfulness, and readiness to offer sacrifices. Peace be upon you and Allah's mercy and blessings.